Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Matty]

Tmac at 57%.

Ddhq initial vote dump

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1402399883185823745

[Matty]

Virginia is a solid blue state that is getting bluer but the day

How on earth didn’t a young, vibrant, fresh rising star emerge here?

Instead we are stuck with a boring stale guy who was already governor anyway.

What went wrong?

All those yuppies in nova really want this???

[Matty]

Genuine question:

will the democrats have single election this year or early next that doesn't contain at least SOME good news for them?

Besides the texas jungle they got locked out of, they have done well in both margin and turnout everywhere.

Hopefully if congress is 100% stagnant for the next year, that could damper things, but I am sick and tired of y'all being able to hang your hat on something.

lol

It's just bizarre. Barack Obama was on another planet than biden when it came to excitement and enthusiasm, and even he couldn't help what was a putrid 2009 and 2010 for democrats.

It has to end sometime, doesn't it? This endless string of good election news for them?

[Matty]

With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win.

maybe not 3%, but I don't get why it is so unreasonable to expect it in the 5-7 range.

youngkin is a lot more appealing to the state than trump was.

It is a solid blue state at this point.

[Matty]

Glorious night

Why? besides perhaps higher than expected turnout (although still lower than 2017 and factoring in population growth of the state), the man widely expected to win, won.

Congrats on a boring mundate white dude who was already governor...yet again becoming governor.

Also, I guess none of you are bothered by him channeling his inner trump here?

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1402086987000074242

[Matty]

Genuine question:

will the democrats have single election this year or early next that doesn't contain at least SOME good news for them?

Besides the texas jungle they got locked out of, they have done well in both margin and turnout everywhere.

Hopefully if congress is 100% stagnant for the next year, that could damper things, but I am sick and tired of y'all being able to hang your hat on something.

lol

It's just bizarre. Barack Obama was on another planet than biden when it came to excitement and enthusiasm, and even he couldn't help what was a putrid 2009 and 2010 for democrats.

It has to end sometime, doesn't it? This endless string of good election news for them?

I personally don’t think it will be enough to save them from have a not very good midterm, but I get the genuine impression that the Obama years and subsequent Trump presidency taught many Dem voters a lesson - that it does matter that a GOP with little interest in anything but power, demagoguery, and obstruction should be stopped. I really think McConnell’s Supreme Court antics were a tangible illustration of the extent to which the GOP will use its power that even lower-propensity voting Dems could fully appreciate the stakes. I think Dems finally appreciate the full extent of what GOP control means - hence the GA runoff results which defied traditional runoff performance for Ds. The changing nature of the Dem electorate is certainly playing a role as well. Make no mistake though, the GOP will get their voters out by employing the tactics they often use as well.

This is what is so puzzling though. The bush years, complete with the horrible war, crashed economy, gay marriage bans, etc, didn't keep dems motivated at all past the 2008 election. Once Obama won, there was a easily observable crash in dem interest in elections and turnout.

[Matty]

My guess is that we’re not going to see polling underestimate Democrats to nearly the same extent as in 2013/2014 given how considerably more 'high-propensity' the Democratic coalition in Virginia has become (most polling 'misses', even while acknowledging margin of error, can be attributed to changing party coalitions more than any late movement in the race/a sudden shift in the environment). Even with the overwhelming Trump surge in rural/small-town VA in 2016, statewide polling was pretty much spot on that year, likely due to the fact that whatever GOP surge the polls did not pick up in the R parts of the state was canceled out by a GA-type miss in the urban/suburban areas (NOVA in particular), where the dramatic increase in the non-native-born population and D gains among a traditionally more R-leaning voter bloc probably skewed the model a little too R in those areas.

I’d sooner bet on polling slightly underestimating Democrats than Republicans this November (somewhat similar to what happened in the NM-1 special election). We’re also not seeing the double-digit drop-off in the president's approval numbers that we saw between 2012 and 2013/2014, as Biden's numbers have been steady and there’s little evidence that he has lost considerable if any ground in the state since November (if he has, it’s certainly not enough to make up a 10-point deficit). Also, even modest/non-negligible inroads in NOVA won’t cut it for Youngkin unless he can reverse the rapid D trend in Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads/the independent cities. It’s really hard to overstate how much of an uphill race this is for the GOP.

No serious person thinks the race is in doubt

Margin is the interest here

[Matty]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

[Matty]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

No it really is not. Sorry to burst your bubble. And that type of policy is not exactly a fully partisan issue.

you are seriously arguing that an area of america where a huge chunk of people work for fbi, cia, dod, and numerous defense contractors isn't pro-interventionist? lol

there is a reason the GOP dominated the region from reagan to bush

[Matty]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

No it really is not. Sorry to burst your bubble. And that type of policy is not exactly a fully partisan issue.

you are seriously arguing that an area of america where a huge chunk of people work for fbi, cia, dod, and numerous defense contractors isn't pro-interventionist? lol

there is a reason the GOP dominated the region from reagan to bush

Oh boy. another person who believes that Nova flips back to the GOP just because Trump is out of office and thinks the electorate here is the same as 2000.

Not worth pages long of arguments.

But Afghanistan will have little if any impact on this election.

NOVA isn't flipping back, but my point remains.

It is an area of the country where people are strong keynesians/interventionists on both economic and foreign policy fronts.

[Matty]

I know most of you guys are unwilling to attack your own, but Terry McAulife flip flopping on qualified immunity for police is just absurd.

It makes no political sense and even worse, it makes him look like a whore.

Qualified immunity polls like hemorrhoids when voters are told what it does.

Not sure what the calculation is there.

I also think endorsing that abortion bill is risky. It makes legal in VA certain abortion practices that are very unpopular among the general population. 2nd and 3rd term abortions for mental health reasons.

Not that debates matter much.

i do think youngkin needs to run a more "I will provide balance against the dems in the state chamber" than a "I will do this and that" campaign.

that's how hogan and baker do so well in states a lot bluer than VA.

[Matty]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

[Matty]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

[Matty]

Cook report is a joke and has been for some time

[Matty]

I’m still confused why I, as a Republican, should be discouraged by a dem +3 result in a dem +10 state, especially if our VA posters are right that Youngkin has run a terrible campaign?

Democrats rightfully were optimistic in 2017 after they overperformed (but still lost) all sorts of areas.

Obviously I want a win for Youngkin, but it would be tough for me to be upset if he keeps it close it under a 4 point loss.

Here’s my barometer

Dem loss: 2022 will be bloodbath

Dem win +1-4: suggests 2022 will be gop house takeover

Dem win +5-6: 2022 still trending close to 2020

Dem win 7-10: disappointing for gop

[Matty]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

[Matty]

McAuliffe says “unpopular” Biden is drag on his campaign

Virginia gubernatorial Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe cast President Joe Biden and his party’s lawmakers in Congress as a liability in the final weeks of the campaign, with polls showing a tightening race. “We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington,” McAuliffe, a former head of the Democratic National Committee, said during a virtual rally with supporters Tuesday. “As you know, the president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia, so we’ve got to plow through.”

Read more at: https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article254818092.html#storylink=cpy

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

[Matty]

This is absolutely gross. I want loudon county school officials to be jailed if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1447695763476209664


I hope loudon school district officials are so f’in scared right now.

[Matty]

One thing is evident:

Virginia voters do not see Glenn youngkin as some monster the way red avatars on this board do.

He might lose, but the numbers just do not suggest he is hated

[Matty]

Meanwhile, in things that matter far more to Virginia that Donald Trump:

The loudon story is getting worse, and there are rumblings NYT has an expose article in the works

https://mobile.twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1448760311750791169

[Matty]

You sound EXACTLY like trumpkins

Nuh-uhh story fake because I don’t like the source!

It’s not just daily wire at this point reporting this

[Matty]

I’m just not convinced abortion in general is some huge net loser for either party

The polling on abortion in America is incoherent

People want it legal, but they also have large margins want it restricted after a while

How can someone be “pro life”, but only after x weeks?

How can someone be “pro choice”, but oops, no choice allowed for you, young lady who is too far along in term

Doesn’t make sense

[Matty]

True, but it goes the the other way too

The house just a couple months ago passed a abortion bill that that

A) invalidate nearly all state laws limiting and regulating abortion, including many health and safety regulations designed to protect the lives of women.

B) It would create an absolute right to abort a child before “fetal viability” — that is, according to the Act, when a baby born would likely survive outside the womb — and it would prohibit states from protecting life after viability until birth if a lone “health care provider” determines the “continuation of the pregnancy would pose a risk” to the mother’s life or “health.”

C) The bill’s chief sponsor in the Senate has acknowledged the legislation “doesn’t distinguish” between physical and mental health, and the text of the bill explicitly instructs the courts to “liberally” interpret the legislation.