Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Yeah, he's one of those perennial names that seems to be in the mix for every race lately. He's not a terrible candidate, but not a great one either. He falls into that same "30%" field that I put most likely opponents in.

What do you think about Jack Ciattarelli? He's the only real candidate who's officially in.

[Roll Roons]

The fairly close house vote in Virginia is a bit concerning but its not like the Democratic Party ran a great national campaign either.

But still what is up with all these takes that VA will become a solid GOP state without Trump in office?

And no matter how polarized we are.. voting patterns will deviate from time to time.

In 2018, the Democrat in VA-09 got 35% of the vote, but Griffith was unopposed this time, so that probably explains why the House PV was close. Wittman and Cline also won by more.

And I don't think anyone is saying that it'll become a red state with Trump gone, but it's not impossible to see Republicans slightly rebounding. I have my doubts about them winning the governorship, but Lt Gov could definitely be a race to watch.

[Roll Roons]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

[Roll Roons]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

So going by how the VAGOP has been acting as of late she’s a lock for the nomination

Yup. And the general election will be a snoozer.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Why do they even keep the convention system? The only time I can see it making sense is for a special election.

[Roll Roons]

Lol. He’ll be lucky to get 10%.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-governors-race/2021/02/22/c256f9fe-6be5-11eb-9ead-673168d5b874_story.html#click=https://t.co/NXBaFjKn7N

This article says that Kirk Cox opposes gay marriage. Makes it that much easier for VA Democrats to tie him to notorious homophobe Young Kim. They'll be guaranteed to hit Mark Warner's 2008 map at least.

[Roll Roons]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

Chesterfield voted for Biden/Warner by 7, it will not vote Republican.

7 points isn't that much of a margin to make up. It's certainly possible, although I doubt it'll happen. If there is suburban reversion, I would think it's more likely to happen near Richmond than in NoVA.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1385435777400807426

VAGOP moment

Just about the dumbest state GOP in the country.

[Roll Roons]

I think KaiserDave may appreciate the name of this guy who will most likely become a Delegate later this year:
https://twitter.com/MattColtHall/status/1386068384903802887

Though I suspect their politics are not terribly similar.

[Roll Roons]

Anyway, my current prediction:

McAuliffe 53.5%
Republican* 45.9%
Other 0.6%

*I don't expect it to be Chase.

Who do you think is most likely to be the GOP nominee? Youngkin's stock seems to be rising.

[Roll Roons]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

Because they want to nominate Youngkin so he can lose by 6 points instead of Amanda Chase who will lose by 12 points.  Republicans are very strategic.

Chase would lose by at least 15.

[Roll Roons]

If Snyder gets the nomination and Chase runs as a conservative independent, I kind of wonder how much she'll get.

I also think the media, being as terrible as they are, will give her outrageous statements free coverage if she's in the general as the GOP nominee or an independent, but luckily, Virginia is much bluer than the country.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1391538802766843912

Virginia GOP and shooting themselves in the foot. Can't think of two things that go together better.

Yes, I know Democrats would be favored, but Miyares would probably have a better shot at pulling off an upset.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391564620263919617

Ok, at least they might save themselves from some embarrassment.

[Roll Roons]

The fact  that it was this close for the Attorney General nomination shows that Miyares has not been a strong campaigner anyway.

Probably still lean or tilt Democrat for the general election.

Campaigning for a convention is different than campaigning for a general election. But yes, Democrats are unquestionably still favored to varying degrees in all three statewide races.

[Roll Roons]

So apparently, they'll actually be counting Governor tomorrow and LG on Tuesday, starting at 9 AM.

[Roll Roons]

Youngkin gaining in the latest count:

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391772407808069634

[Roll Roons]

Hope I'm not speaking too soon, but maybe the GOP doesn't always go for the craziest candidate.

I know Youngkin isn't exactly Charlie Baker, but at least he's not a raving lunatic like Chase.

[Roll Roons]

Do we buy this?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391777855474999298?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391781567119364098?s=20

I'm kind of torn on this. On one hand, NoVA has become a hell of a mountain to overcome, and the shifts in Richmond and Hampton Roads haven't helped. McAuliffe is also very much a known quantity.

But Youngkin seems likely to be the nominee, and I feel like he could have some upset potential. Plus if Republicans were able to win in Maryland, Virginia should be hypothetically within reach.

So I guess I'd say Democrats are clearly favored because of the state's partisanship, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of a GOP victory.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391827258520788992

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/stateoftheraces/status/1391830492509519879

Alright, pack this up, we're going home. It's official. This race is Titanium D. McAuliffe will now win by even more than next year's Democratic nominee in Hawaii.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391835989010747398

Snyder is a state representative in VA Beach and should have had the plurality here if he was to win. Youngkin wins no matter what.

Snyder has never held elected office.

[Roll Roons]

This race is obviously Safe D why is anyone bothering

It's an off year and there's not much else to talk about in terms of elections, especially with the House map being up the air.