Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

Despite all the signals, I don't think he'll run.

If he does, though, yeah, Tmac will be governor again.  Kenny Alexander gets bumped down to Lt. Governor in that case.

it's not just signals, he's literally filed the paper work

It's not uncommon to file the paper work and then back out.  I'll wait for an official announcement.

I kind of hope he does run, though.  He was a good governor the first time around.

I feel him filing papers was more a warning/safety net after several prominent democrats had major scandals, Like “if I have to come down there and fix your mess fine”. I don’t think he’ll jump in in the end

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terry mcauliffe has already ruled out  a Biden administration post. He is running for sure.

I was going to ask you if you heard rumors about him on the ground. If I was on his team I would no doubt be telling him to run. As a republican, I'm not thrilled because I know what it means for our chances in the race. But clearly he should run.

He is very strongly likely to run.

My impression of the candidates are:

McAuliffe: Very likely to win unless he just gets lazy.

Fairfax: He could well lose statewide and it would depend on who the GOP Nominates.

Jennifer Carrol Foy: Reasonably strong but has a chance of being overrated.

Jennifer McClellan: Wont be as large of a factor in the primary as you would think

Can you elaborate on Foy and McClellan, I don’t know much about em

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Well, Kirk Cox is in:

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1328554934523072512

How scared should democrats be of that?

If enough people see his Wikipedia profile pic, not at all. Looks like a freaking mugshot

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On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

So going by how the VAGOP has been acting as of late she’s a lock for the nomination

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Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed).

Because as 2020 "arguably showed", having a San Franciscan on the presidential ticket is less of a net negative in the current alignment than a Virginian on the ticket.

He is a good poster but at times I have seen very strange takes from him.

VPs rarely have much positive effect on the election as a whole. They’re job is basically to just support the candidate and don’t do anything stupid.

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Why exactly does the VAGOP do conventions instead of primaries? They're the only state party that does afaik.

They can do either, but usually they seem to do it to keep their party the same ideologically. Case and point when Rep. Riggleman had the audacity to officiate a wedding between two close friends and employees who were gay the party held a convention instead of a primary and booted him out

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https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/1379583275652370432?s=20

...bruh

What the heck was he thinking. He’s really trying to come in last place by appealing solely to misogynistic moderate African-Americans

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DOMINATING!

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1382138427701874691

The most interesting thing about this is Fairfax is ahead of Carter. It’ll be interesting to see which one ends last

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https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1385435777400807426

VAGOP moment

I’m not surprised just so extremely baffled how tone death and bluntly duplicitous this is. Like aren’t they the party of religious freedom and government respecting religion. They might as well drop all the charade and replace every instance of “religious” with “Protestant Christian”

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Between tomorrow and Nov 2nd, Glenn Youngkin has the resources to blast the airwaves, digital ads, and mailers.. literally 24 hours a day.. which does scare me.

So did Jaime Harrison…

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I wish we had ranked choice voting for LT Gov in particular. It’s so hard to tell who is favored and how strategic to be with my vote.

With a race this wide open and even strategic voting is next to impossible

For what it’s worth if I was in VA I’d be backing Ayala

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Honestly if VA dems get smart they could carve Carroll-Foy a seat in the House and kick out Rob Wittman, she really deserves it.

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Honestly if VA dems get smart they could carve Carroll-Foy a seat in the House and kick out Rob Wittman, she really deserves it.

They unilaterally disarmed their gerrymandering powers.

Ugh

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Lee Carter is losing his House primary too.

Wait, candidates in Virginia can run for two offices at once? Carter is allowed to run for Governor and reelection at the same time? I didn't realize that.

A lot of states have laws like that, in SC Powers-Norell ran for Lt. Gov and lost but was still a house member

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I'll be curious if anyone other than TMac wins a county

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1402408540841652227?s=20

That seems premature,

Also interesting how the Lt Gov map is split east/west

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BREAKING!!1!

Xavier JaMar Warren won the city of Danville

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I'll be curious if anyone other than TMac wins a county

Not a county, but McClellan is narrowly ahead in Richmond right now.

After the last vote dump he's ahead, complete TMac win looks like

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Also looks like Warren will win Pittsylvania County too

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Ayala's lead has been narrowing with every vote dump, she'll probably still win, but not by too much

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I know Lee Carter is a DSAer, but is there any reason beyond that that Atlas doesn't seem to like him much? I haven't really been following what he's been up to.

As someone who isn't far off from the DSA in politics, he's an embarrassing berniebro who makes all socialist look bad

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phew Ayala won Fairfax City, the east/west divide is safe

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The Lt. Governor map is 100% my new most satisfying election map. Move over 2006 Oklahoma Gubernatorial!

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Delegates who lost re-election results;

Lost Renomination
Delegate Poindexter (R-09) - 37%
Delegate Levine (D-45) 41%
Delegate Carter (D-50) 38%
Delegate Heretick (D-79) 28%
Delegate Samirah (D-86) 48% [not called yet]

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Also if all leads hold up then McClellan will be the only one who didn’t win a city/county