Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

Yikes. This really is McAullife's to lose at this point. Fairfax is a total mess.

[wbrocks67]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

[wbrocks67]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

https://twitter.com/jfradioshow/status/1387098598618406916?s=19

I wonder if this is true.

Also I love how 53K is hailed as some of type of record when the primary for the GOP had 350K in 2017.

[wbrocks67]

It seems odd to me that pundits are now pulling a 2017 all over again and saying that the Republican has a good chance, despite all of the empirical and anecdotal evidence suggesting otherwise.

It's not impossible, of course. But just like the pundits were wrong about Northam in 2017, it feels like they're making the same goofs here again.

[wbrocks67]

Richmond Area Power Poll:

43% TMac
38% Youngkin

https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/richmond-power-poll-respondents-weigh-in-on-state-elections/

Unscientific poll, but could this spell trouble for the Dems ?

Richmond and suburbs are heavily Dem ...

why would you even post this

[wbrocks67]

Is there any updates on the EV?

[wbrocks67]

It's really too bad b/c Caroll Foy would've been a good pick if not for McAuliffe. Oh well.

Also LOL @ Fairfax

[wbrocks67]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself. 

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

[wbrocks67]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

That FB group I am in, called Reopen Virginia, has become very quiet and almost dead since all covid restrictions have been lifted. But with all respect, every single special election since Biden's election has shown massive swings of educated whites to the GOP.

this is not true at all

[wbrocks67]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

Yeah, agreed. McAuliffe is totally fine but I feel like Caroll Foy would've been an amazing candidate. It's really too bad.

[wbrocks67]

Virginia should really just let Governors run for re-election so this kind of mess doesn't happen again. Yes, it sucks when the well-liked former Gov comes in and decides he'd like another term, cutting off every other candidate. There's a reason this doesn't happen in any other state.

Yeah, the whole 'one term at a time but you can come back whenever you want as long as its not consecutive' is just dumb

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see the early takes by some about low turnout (Dave Wasserman to be specific) were very, very wrong.

Pretty dam impressive for the primary to hit about 500K in the end which is just under 2017 and incredibly less competitive.

Also LOL @ Justin Fairfax's horrific and devastating performance. Satisfying

[wbrocks67]

Ayala's lead has been narrowing with every vote dump, she'll probably still win, but not by too much

NOt sure what you were seeing... she's up by 14 and her lead was pretty much around that the entire night

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/08/us/elections/results-virginia-primary-elections.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[wbrocks67]

NYT has the race at 486K with 97% counted. What's remaining? Any actual precincts or just mail in ballots that are received until Friday?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ethanclynne/status/1405950168328032258

[wbrocks67]

President Trump got 44% in Virginia both in 2016 and 2020 supposedly even though i wonder how much higher it really was. Maybe Youngkin can do better to the point of something like 48% but I am not sure about enough of a level to win? But haha maybe more months of Biden and Harris angering voters who aren’t partisan Democratic will do the trick? But then again Virginia has lots of partisan Dem voters now compared to 2004 right?

this is not reality

[wbrocks67]

Glenn Youngkin calls Asian Americans 'yellow' in April interview

https://americanindependent.com/virginia-gop-governor-nominee-glenn-youngkin-asian-americans-yellow-terry-mcauliffe-judy-chu-kathy-tran/

[wbrocks67]

It was literally ONE school board meeting in one town that's not really indicative of anything, especially in Loudon County, where Joe Biden won by 25%. This is just messy journalism

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1413274684007882762

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery County MD is talking about covid restrictions again! I am worried they will be great campaign material for the VA GOP.

At least Northam is not requiring masks in schools. Yes, I agree it is a good idea to wear masks in schools this fall. But politically it would be a disaster for Democrats.

love how everything is spun into a 'disaster for Democrats''

[wbrocks67]

-rolls eyes-

https://twitter.com/gabriellaborter/status/1418247754313252871

[wbrocks67]

There was some school board meeting in Virginia Beach that had a lot of yokels screaming about masks as if it was child abuse to have kids wear them a few hours a day in school.  It's legitimately scary to me that these people live in the same state.  That said, all these nonsense issues the GOP is trying to stir up will backfire spectacularly.  It's going to turn off the exact demographic Trumpkin needs to improve on to win. 

Not to mention, we've now seen GOP operatives purposely going to school board meetings to stir these things up, so it's not even organic.

[wbrocks67]

Not a great week for Trumpkin.

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/1418251305580179458

[wbrocks67]

Not great for Trumpkin

https://twitter.com/maxasteele/status/1422283093977747457

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1422692857283022850?s=20


Why can't they just agree on some debates, what's going on here?

It's not a 'they' problem, I'm pretty sure Trumpkin is the one who had the initial issue and caused the problem.

[wbrocks67]

My analysis on the Virginia Gubernatorial election.  I still think in the end McAuliffe will most likely prevail, but if I were him, I'd be very worried looking at the polling.  McAuliffe is the de facto incumbent.  I would expect him to be running away with it.  He isn't.  The polls show it close. McAuliffe is not the invincible pol people think.  Remember, he only narrowly edged out a very polarizing opponent in 2013, and Youngkin as not as controversial as Cucinelli.  And McAuliffe left office with mediocre approval ratings.  Above water, but below 50%.  And I believe there is the sense among some moderate voters in the suburbs that Northam and the Democrats in the General Assembly have overreached the last 2 years.  Since willing the majority, the Democrats have done things like abolishing the death penalty and legalized marijuana.  They are acting like Virginia is Massachusetts.

Well, one, there hasn't been a TON of polling. But also this is still an offyear election during a Biden midterm period so McAuliffe, even as the de facto incumbent, wouldn't be running away with it unless this was a Trump/Rep midterm IMO