Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

Im worried that youngkin will win by 5 to 10 points and convince some Democratic state senators to become Republicans and flipping the state senate as well.

First thing they will do is abolish medicaid expansion and make abortion illegal.

[Suburbia]

Im worried that youngkin will win by 5 to 10 points and convince some Democratic state senators to become Republicans and flipping the state senate as well.

First thing they will do is abolish medicaid expansion and make abortion illegal.

I don't think VA Dems would switch...VA is a blue state, but McAuliffe is too cocky, he needs to play aggressive and bow out of politics in 2025 when his second term ends....

I am surprised George Allen did not run in 2021, this year...Allen would have been more electable than Youngkin...

[jamestroll]

Going forward, the Loudoun portion of the current VA 10 will probably be more reliable than the Fairfax portion for Democrats.

Perhaps.  It's had more demographic change than the Fairfax portion.  The Fairfax portion was explicitly carved out to gerrymander Barbara Comstock a district and essentially has all of the wealthy (formerly GOP leaning) areas in it.  That's why Wexton has to tread lightly on taxes.  She winning or coming close to winning essentially all of those rich precincts but if Dems did a huge tax increase she'd probably have to rely a lot more on Loudoun, which is where she's from anyways.  

It will be interesting to see how this part of Fairfax is redistricted.  I am guessing most of it does not remain with Loudoun.  Maybe the McLean and Great Falls portions but that's probably it.  

The vibe is like Great Falls is far different from where I live or most of fairfax!

Even the southwestern portion of Fairfax has a very different vibe. Va 10 in its current drawing could theoretically be competitive locally but it should not be a prime target for the GOP.

[Wormless Gourd]

Bet $10 TMac wins. It would require more reversion then realistic.

[Spectator]

Im worried that youngkin will win by 5 to 10 points and convince some Democratic state senators to become Republicans and flipping the state senate as well.

First thing they will do is abolish medicaid expansion and make abortion illegal.

No one serious thinks Youngkin will win, let alone by 5-10 points.

[jamestroll]

Cook doesn't have a good track record anyway. They will probably rate Mo Sen 2022 as toss up if any single digits poll comes out.

Maybe I over reacted a bit.

It's those bright red big youngkin signs making me crazy

[Matty]

Cook report is a joke and has been for some time

[Devils30]

TMac's numbers with white college grads in polling suggest this is still very much an uphill battle for Rs

[jamestroll]

I would not consider Youngkins win legitimate because his campaign is based on critical race theory and pandemic restrictions.

Neither of which exist in Virginia.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

I will lol when tmac wins by 6.5

[President Johnson]

I'm not sharing the pessimism expressed by some in this thread. I think this will be similar to the California recall, when Democrats will come home in the final weeks and days. T-Mac will probably have more consistent polling leads by mid/late October and be at around 50% and finally end up winning something like 53-45%.

[UncleSam]

Lol maybe there’s a chance McCauliffe underperforms and wins by 3-5, but there’s a vanishingly small chance he loses outside of making significant gaffes in the final weeks.

Democrats have done well in VA compared to their polling since 2017. Ds in NOVA have consistently come home in the final weeks of every election since then, so I don’t see why this should be any different.

[jamestroll]

My predictions as of today

GOV: D+3
LT GOV D+ 3
AG D +4.5

[NOVA Green]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

[BoiseBoy]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

I really don't think it'll be particularly close. Neither candidate is running a good campaign, but Youngkin is by far a worse fit for VA (especially the VA of modern times) than TMac. I'm sticking with a D+5 to D+6 win.

[wbrocks67]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

It's a 2017 redux. Think the Morning Joe panel saying Gillepsie would win on Election Day 2017.

[Non Swing Voter]

Going forward, the Loudoun portion of the current VA 10 will probably be more reliable than the Fairfax portion for Democrats.

Perhaps.  It's had more demographic change than the Fairfax portion.  The Fairfax portion was explicitly carved out to gerrymander Barbara Comstock a district and essentially has all of the wealthy (formerly GOP leaning) areas in it.  That's why Wexton has to tread lightly on taxes.  She winning or coming close to winning essentially all of those rich precincts but if Dems did a huge tax increase she'd probably have to rely a lot more on Loudoun, which is where she's from anyways.  

It will be interesting to see how this part of Fairfax is redistricted.  I am guessing most of it does not remain with Loudoun.  Maybe the McLean and Great Falls portions but that's probably it.  

The vibe is like Great Falls is far different from where I live or most of fairfax!

Even the southwestern portion of Fairfax has a very different vibe. Va 10 in its current drawing could theoretically be competitive locally but it should not be a prime target for the GOP.

Yes, Fairfax is a massive and diverse county (politically, geographically, and population wise).  But I mean how many people even live in an area like Great Falls?  The population centers are going to be much more skewed to places like Reston, Herndon, Tysons.  But I will be interested in seeing how McLean, Vienna, and Great Falls vote.  Dems don't need to win Great Falls to win Fairfax but if they are splitting precincts like that then you have a 70-30 blowout a la Trump.  If Youngkin is holding his own and winning Great Falls 60-40 then it's more indicative of a 62-38 kind of race.  I don't see that happening though.  I think he probably wins those mega rich precincts like 52-48 or it's an even split.  I expect these areas to vote a bit more Republican in local elections due to $$$Taxes$$$. 

So we are probably looking at T Mac getting 65-68 in Fairfax.  That's not nearly good enough for Youngkin to win unless turnout is super low.  But early voting doesn't indicate that will happen.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Slightly O/T, but I really hope VA gets rid of the stupid non-consecutive term limit requirement at some point.

[slothdem]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

[MT Treasurer]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

VA elections have always been overhyped by the MSM, but I would be surprised if this turned into a "2017 redux," and I think Republicans should be concerned if McAuliffe wins by the same margin as Northam.

I’m not a fan of concepts like "redux," but the closest analogies I can think of here are IA-GOV/OH-GOV 2018 — the race ends up at something close to a McAuliffe +4 win, which would also be in line with the CA swing from 2020. Republicans put up a decent candidate with fairly good messenging, the environment is somewhat favorable to them (even if not massively so), but the state is too far gone at that point.

McAuliffe and Murphy both winning in a blowout close to the 2020 result would indicate that the R brand is toxic enough to sink even generic/"inoffensive" Republicans (conservative =/= offensive!) in non-federal races and trump (no pun intended) local issues, and at that point the GOP should worry about implications for 2022. They absolutely don’t need to win states like VA or NJ just like Democrats didn’t need IA or OH for a wave, but if they can’t even achieve a moderate swing from 2020, something is obviously wrong.

[jamestroll]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

Youngkin winning oakton??

WTF... LMAO NOOO...

-oakton resident

[Devils30]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

VA elections have always been overhyped by the MSM, but I would be surprised if this turned into a "2017 redux," and I think Republicans should be concerned if McAuliffe wins by the same margin as Northam.

I’m not a fan of concepts like "redux," but the closest analogies I can think of here are IA-GOV/OH-GOV 2018 — the race ends up at something close to a McAuliffe +4 win, which would also be in line with the CA swing from 2020. Republicans put up a decent candidate with fairly good messenging, the environment is somewhat favorable to them (even if not massively so), but the state is too far gone at that point.

McAuliffe and Murphy both winning in a blowout close to the 2020 result would indicate that the R brand is toxic enough to sink even generic/"inoffensive" Republicans (conservative =/= offensive!) in non-federal races and trump (no pun intended) local issues, and at that point the GOP should worry about implications for 2022. They absolutely don’t need to win states like VA or NJ just like Democrats didn’t need IA or OH for a wave, but if they can’t even achieve a moderate swing from 2020, something is obviously wrong.

Using the election shuffler, giving TMac Northam like margins in NoVA, Richmond and Youngkin Trump ones in rural areas only gets Rs from -10 to around -7/-7.5. To actually win the state Youngkin needs to at minimum cut these suburbs to Romney type numbers and even then it's 50/50 at best. As long as polls show Dems up with white college, be skeptical this is a real tossup.

[DaleCooper]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

VA elections have always been overhyped by the MSM, but I would be surprised if this turned into a "2017 redux," and I think Republicans should be concerned if McAuliffe wins by the same margin as Northam.

I’m not a fan of concepts like "redux," but the closest analogies I can think of here are IA-GOV/OH-GOV 2018 — the race ends up at something close to a McAuliffe +4 win, which would also be in line with the CA swing from 2020. Republicans put up a decent candidate with fairly good messenging, the environment is somewhat favorable to them (even if not massively so), but the state is too far gone at that point.

McAuliffe and Murphy both winning in a blowout close to the 2020 result would indicate that the R brand is toxic enough to sink even generic/"inoffensive" Republicans (conservative =/= offensive!) in non-federal races and trump (no pun intended) local issues, and at that point the GOP should worry about implications for 2022. They absolutely don’t need to win states like VA or NJ just like Democrats didn’t need IA or OH for a wave, but if they can’t even achieve a moderate swing from 2020, something is obviously wrong.

I agree. Obviously 2021 is not going to be quite the same turnout-wise as 2022, but if Republicans lose by nearly double digits after seriously contesting Virginia, I think they should be extremely concerned about a number of Senate seats in 2022, including their seats in PA and Wisconsin. I don't expect that to happen, but if they're getting blown away in favorable off-years, even in safe blue states, then that's a warning sign. A narrow victory for McAuliffe would be a respectable showing for Republicans and should be a red flag for Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

VA elections have always been overhyped by the MSM, but I would be surprised if this turned into a "2017 redux," and I think Republicans should be concerned if McAuliffe wins by the same margin as Northam.

I’m not a fan of concepts like "redux," but the closest analogies I can think of here are IA-GOV/OH-GOV 2018 — the race ends up at something close to a McAuliffe +4 win, which would also be in line with the CA swing from 2020. Republicans put up a decent candidate with fairly good messenging, the environment is somewhat favorable to them (even if not massively so), but the state is too far gone at that point.

McAuliffe and Murphy both winning in a blowout close to the 2020 result would indicate that the R brand is toxic enough to sink even generic/"inoffensive" Republicans (conservative =/= offensive!) in non-federal races and trump (no pun intended) local issues, and at that point the GOP should worry about implications for 2022. They absolutely don’t need to win states like VA or NJ just like Democrats didn’t need IA or OH for a wave, but if they can’t even achieve a moderate swing from 2020, something is obviously wrong.

BTW I thought Dems would win both the OH and IA governorships in 2018 (they actually held leads in polling averages in both).  It should turn out to be something like McAuliffe + 4, but who knows.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

To be honest, I'm actually glad that Cook and others are acting like the race is a real tossup

Acting like? They say wherever data leads.

This news will force Dems not get complacent and it will also end up being a far bigger deal if Dems do end up winning big in Virginia because this time around the media won't be able to simply dismiss the victory because it was in a blue state since they were the one who insisted that the race was a toss up in the first place lol

I guess, you try to make a comparison with CA (media didn't "dismissed" the victory there btw)? Biden is quite popular there, but likely is underwater here. Dems will probably still win, but a relatively close race is not a good news for Dems.

Also, what media says it's a toss up? Cook is for nerds, literally no one else knows who they are. Imo, media says it Lean D. If anything, they will spin it as a win for D, even if the results turns out to be relatively close.