Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

The Republicans need to run a fiscally conservative socially moderate/liberal candidate to have any chance of winning but of course they won't because how could one survive a GOP primary (see Riggleman). 

[Non Swing Voter]

Well, Kirk Cox is in:

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1328554934523072512

How scared should democrats be of that?

not at all.

[Non Swing Voter]

There's perhaps a path for the GOP to win while losing Loudoun if they at least cut the margin down to just a couple of points + juiced up turnout in rural Virginia.  I suspect the opposite will happen though.   Large Dem margin in Loudoun (~20) and repressed turnout in rural Virginia.  If Terry McAuliffe wins the primary then he's almost certainly going to win comfortably.

[Non Swing Voter]

The only we can do is to pray for lower turnout/cut the margins massive rain in Fake tax-paying Virginia, that's the only way we the people who cry about socialism but benefit from NOVA's handouts can win statewide here.

FTFY

[Non Swing Voter]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

They must be so disheartened to not have one last opportunity for a superspreader event. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah, to the extent Clinton lost because of Kaine it was because he's boring and brought nothing to the table, not because he's from Virginia. 

Although I would argue that if she picked him to shore up Virginia rather than focusing on the upper midwest it's exhibit 1,000,001 of what a poor and miscalculated campaign Dems ran in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

[Non Swing Voter]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

[Non Swing Voter]

You guys fail to see how polarized Virginia is.  Yeah maybe Fairfax County (county where I live btw) doesn't go 70-30, but it's probably not dropping to 60/40.  As soon as the GOP nominee starts talking to downstate voters they are going to rile up NOVA the same way Trump did. 

Republicans are screwed here because their electorate is right wing nut jobs who they have to pander to but they make up a distinct minority of the vote now. 

Also, to people saying it's not 2017.  Maybe, but Biden is popular here and like others have said the state has gotten bluer since 2017 and blue areas are growing so that will counteract any natural shift to the GOP.  I stand by my prediction that if Terry wins the primary (which he probably will) Dems win the race in the neighborhood of 10 points.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

Because they want to nominate Youngkin so he can lose by 6 points instead of Amanda Chase who will lose by 12 points.  Republicans are very strategic.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm getting tons of spam emails tonight bashing Youngkin which makes me think people know something and Youngkin won, but who knows.

I am secretly rooting for Chase because it offers voters clarity on what the GOP stands for.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm worried the youngkin vs mcaufflie race will be so close that some violence between their supporters is possible

Is there any reason to believe that McAuliffe will win by anything but a comfortable margin?

No there isn't.  McAuliffe is going to cruise to victory no matter who the GOP nominee is.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/petesnyder/status/1391184019128205312?s=20

Snyder appears confident, which therefore begs the question about Chase's potential spoiler campaign.

I guess he's the nominee then. TBH i wouldn't;t put much stake in this.

He sounds like a d-bag.  Can't wait to vote against him in November.

[Non Swing Voter]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

[Non Swing Voter]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

You'd be correct.  the only hope Republicans have is that Democrats push too far on "socialism" and raise taxes, etc.  But the Virginia Democratic Party seems to be messaging perfectly.  They haven't raised taxes and they are set to nominate Terry, a moderate who is liberal on social issues but fiscally responsible - a perfect fit for NOVA.  As long as democrats keep a tight grip on growing NOVA counties they should be fine, the math doesn't work for Republicans. 

Democrats nationally, and especially in states like Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Florida should look at how the Virginia democrats have done things.  They have completely rammed through their agenda on social issues, the court, and race relations while being just moderate enough to avoid attacks.  They've completely neutered the Virginia GOP to the point where they are irrelevant to state politics at the local level.

[Non Swing Voter]

My predictions:

This thread will end up with 100 pages.

And Terry Mcaufflie will win by 3%. Basically the destined result this entire time

No way.  Just no friggin way that happens.  Not with this GOP crop of losers and Terry at the top of the ticket. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

You mean the part of Virginia that pays for the state services you guys use?  that shoulders the tax burden for spiraling downward "real" Virginia? 

I'm sure this multimillionaire is really in touch with you guys.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

[Non Swing Voter]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

Correct (the second paragraph).

[Non Swing Voter]

A lot of Dems who usually vote in Presidential elections will sit this race out.

Combined with a financial edge from Youngkin, this will be a 50-49 race in either direction.

McAuliffe will certainly not win by 2% or more (you can quote me after the election).

No, no, no, 1000x no.  Virginia is a state where the educated population skews heavily democratic relative to the overall electorate.  Educated voters vote in off off years.  Advantage dems and they won't be sitting this out.  Turnout will be higher in NOVA as a percentage of the state than it was in 2020. 

This means for Youngkin (they are already calling him "Trumpkin") to win he will have to win over a significant chunk of fairly reliable Democratic voters in NOVA.  Highly unlikely unless he can completely focus the election on taxes, schools, and maybe a few other issues.  His main problem, aside from the tilt of the state is that Terry (who will likely be the D candidate) is a moderate on a lot of those issues.  So all he needs to do is tie Youngkin to the GOP and Trump (hence "Trumpkin") to win.

[Non Swing Voter]

You can put the "take" into context.  Virginia is a slightly blue state but it is not California or New York. 

If Youngkin makes this truly competitive then it probably does signal that the GOP will have a good year in 2022.  If Terry wins by around 5 then the House is a coin flip because both sides are engaged.  If Dems win by close to 10 again then it signals that nothing has changed since 2020 and Dems will retain the House.

I also want to see if the GOP overperforms or underperforms the polls.  Last time they underperformed.  If they do again I think it signals that the "shy" Trump voter is no longer voting with Trump off the ballot.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well, VA and NJ happen to be solid Democratic states, so of course they have major implications for 2022 (even when they don’t). Youngkin losing by "close to 10" wouldn’t signal that Democrats are favored to retain the House or that Republicans won’t turn out in 2022, nor would Younkin losing by 5 signal "a coin toss" in the battle for House control. I hope people enjoy the spin for one year, though (we saw how it turned out in 2013 after McAuliffe's win supposedly indicated some national "backlash" against the obstructionist GOP that shut down the government or whatever when it was just a matter of VA being too blue by 2013/Sarvis hurting Cuccinelli).

Long story short, Youngkin does not need to make this race "truly competitive" for the GOP to have a good year in 2022. But that is pretty obvious, so....

No, it's not obvious.  I think Harry Enten is right for many of the reasons he stated in the article and you're completely wrong (and lack any analysis to support your wrong beliefs).

Also, Virginia is not a solid Democratic state like New Jersey, but nice try lumping it in.  It's odd how posters from Montana like to opine on Virginia but clearly don't understand its political dynamics at all.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well, VA and NJ happen to be solid Democratic states, so of course they have major implications for 2022 (even when they don’t). Youngkin losing by "close to 10" wouldn’t signal that Democrats are favored to retain the House or that Republicans won’t turn out in 2022, nor would Younkin losing by 5 signal "a coin toss" in the battle for House control. I hope people enjoy the spin for one year, though (we saw how it turned out in 2013 after McAuliffe's win supposedly indicated some national "backlash" against the obstructionist GOP that shut down the government or whatever when it was just a matter of VA being too blue by 2013/Sarvis hurting Cuccinelli).

Long story short, Youngkin does not need to make this race "truly competitive" for the GOP to have a good year in 2022. But that is pretty obvious, so....

No, it's not obvious.  I think Harry Enten is right for many of the reasons he stated in the article and you're completely wrong (and lack any analysis to support your wrong beliefs).

Also, Virginia is not a solid Democratic state like New Jersey, but nice try lumping it in.  It's odd how posters from Montana like to opine on Virginia but clearly don't understand its political dynamics at all.

Just realized that poster I responded to is MT Treasurer, who until last year was unaware that Arlington is not in Fairfax county, so now the completely wrong VA analysis makes sense.  I guess it's not a Montana thing.

[Non Swing Voter]

For non hacks, even if Virginia were a "solid blue state" like New Jersey, it clearly has red areas and swing areas and you can glean a lot of info based on how they vote.  The 2017 election made clear that Republicans were tanking in the suburbs, and especially educated suburbs.  To think how it votes in 2021 says nothing about the next election is ridiculous.  It tells you info on how regions are voting and you can put it into context that it's a year out and things could change.  Especially since both parties appear to be nominating bland white guys who aren't super controversial and bring their own baggage into the race.