Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Duke of York]

Are the chances high T-Mac runs?

[Duke of York]

Youngkin is the one to watch.  He's going to have a heck of a time getting through the convention, but if he does, he's likely favored in the GE.

Nominating Chase would be throwing the GE away, and Snyder is old news now and pretty boring.  IDK about Kirk Cox, but holding on decisively in 2019 in that district was impressive and he has some bipartisan accomplishments he can sell.  

who is  Youngkin? I still think Chase is favored and would likely hurt Republicans down ballot.

[Duke of York]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

1) Lee Carter and Justin Fairfax are not acceptable nominees.

2) Contrary to popular belief.. indefinite virtual school is not going to be popular. and it is not unreasonable to think that if this fall there is a small covid resurgence and Democratic governors lock down over that and the flu that there would be a backlash. Especially if this fall, kids in Virginia are still not in school.

I very much doubt democratic governors are going to do a lockdown over the flu.

[Duke of York]

So, Herring's bid is pretty much done, right? I remember that he had extremely weak fundraising numbers posted some pages back. The blackface stuff seems to have finished him off, while Northam has recovered because his performance in office is solid. If he was able to run again, he'd probably win reelection (while McAuliffe doesn't challenge him).

If Jones gets the nomination that will likely help with black turnout.

[Duke of York]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

Do you think Democrats gain seats in the House of Delegates as well?

[Duke of York]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.

with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

[Duke of York]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1391013962129477634?s=20

The chase quip is certainly interesting. Voter motivation is also interesting.

I wonder if this bodes well for Chase to get the nomination.

[Duke of York]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

Because they want to nominate Youngkin so he can lose by 6 points instead of Amanda Chase who will lose by 12 points.  Republicans are very strategic.

Chase would lose by at least 15.

I hope she gets the nomination. I want to see a landslide loss for Republicans.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/petesnyder/status/1391184019128205312?s=20

Snyder appears confident, which therefore begs the question about Chase's potential spoiler campaign.

I guess he's the nominee then. TBH i wouldn't;t put much stake in this.

[Duke of York]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

[Duke of York]

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

Hopefully Chase runs as a independent.

[Duke of York]

Needless to say, the chances of a GOP upset in November are... slim.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1391816951308161026?s=21

Hence why I think democrats keep all three statewide offices and keep the HOD maybe even slightly expand their majority.

[Duke of York]

Needless to say, the chances of a GOP upset in November are... slim.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1391816951308161026?s=21

Yeah, I'm pretty baffled by people think Youngkin will be that strong a candidate given the intensity of Virginia's political realignment.

Also I find it interesting people saying he'll "blanket the airwaves nonstop" and that will win him re-election...is that a strategy that can still work for a candidate in 2021 in a state/district that politically leans against them? I think partisanship is a little too strong these days for that to be the sole cause of a victory

Another reason why I think this won't be particularly close. TMAC wins by a least six points. I wouldnt be surprised if he gets more than Northam considering how NOVA is growing at lightning speed and the Richmond suburbs are shifting blue rapidly.

[Duke of York]

Anyway, here's my take on potential GOP Competitiveness. Here are the states Trump won 2016 by a margin similar to Biden's 2020 Virginia Result:

SC - 14.2%
VA - 10.1%
IA - 9.4%
TX - 9%
OH - 8.1%

So unless you think 2022 will be worse for D's than 2018 was for R's...

The national election was almost D+5.That puts Virginia 5 points left of the nation. Arguably, Trump was the worst possible fit for VA, too. Seems to me a state that is at best 5 points left of the nation is perfectly winnable in a Biden admin if he gets a little more unpopular, especially when Youngkin has a turnout operation and Terry Mc is uninspiring at best.

Youngkin is still going to run a very Trumpy campaign--he talks about Dominion machines and stuff like that, no to mention the fact that he'll get and flaunt Trump's endorsement if he wins the nomination. That's not going to work all that well in a state like Virginia.

That's going to turn a lot of people off and isn't a winning strategy at all. it could even a be a drag down ballot.

[Duke of York]

Between tomorrow and Nov 2nd, Glenn Youngkin has the resources to blast the airwaves, digital ads, and mailers.. literally 24 hours a day.. which does scare me.

it is concerning however outside groups and super pacs will raise tons of money too and air ads. Youngkin has all but embraced the big lie and Trumpism. That's not going to play well in the state.

[Duke of York]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Fake Virginia? NOVA is part of the same state and this kind of insults doesn't endear people to vote for your candidates.

elections are won in the most populous counties and hes likely going to do terribly in NOVA the Richmond suburbs and the Hampton Roads. it doesn't;t matter if the rural counties like him., Its not enough to win.

[Duke of York]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

especially when you call a region of the state fake.

[Duke of York]

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/virginia-gop-lieutenant-governors-race-results-sears-jumps-to-early-lead-over-davis-hugo-for-lg-nomination/

Winsome Sears has won the nomination for Lt. Governor. She served as delegate for one term from 2002 to 2004 before making a failed run for congress in 2004.

[Duke of York]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

the second paragraph is one hundred percent correct. Same goes for House of Delegates. Democrats should hold it.

[Duke of York]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

Then why do you guys always vote in people that want to subjugate the rest of the state, why do you always have to impose crap that nobody outside of your places want, and always infringe on other people's rights. If you came to Virginia to work that's fine, but why do you guys always have to look down on the state's natives and force your views upon them?

do you seriously believe this or do you not understand how an election works? They are won by who gets the most votes not who wins the most land area.

[Duke of York]

A lot of Dems who usually vote in Presidential elections will sit this race out.

Combined with a financial edge from Youngkin, this will be a 50-49 race in either direction.

McAuliffe will certainly not win by 2% or more (you can quote me after the election).

2013 and 2017 say otherwise.

[Duke of York]

McAulliffe will obviously win.

and hopefully Democrats keep the LT Gov and AG along with the House of Delegates too.

[Duke of York]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

which is not evidence.

[Duke of York]

Great result for T-Mac! Both margin- and turnout-wise.

His acceptance speech was also pretty firy in attacking the Republicans. I think he'll win by a similar margin than Northam did in 2017 and be able to get a lot of good things done now that Democrats control the state legislature, unlike in his first term (in which he already governed well). He'd actually be a great president as well.

I hope he wins by a similar margin that Northam or even better out preforms him and Democrats gain in the HOD.