Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we do is take from VA and NJ and what it means to history, if the outparty makes gains in the next midterm like 2009 when Christie and Bob McDowell win NJ and VA and D's lost 2010 midterms due to Obamacare and in 2017/ of course Murphy took over for Doug Christie and D's had a successful Midterm in 2018 due to Trump first impeachment, outparty gain seats

The fact the Rs are gonna lose both doesn't bode well for their chances in 2022/ Biden only have to sure up MI WI and PA and he has a 52% approval not 40% Trump 1962/1998/2002/ Inc Prez had 52% approvals like Biden. 2016 when they ran against Hillary was the last time they cracked the blue wall, 5 yrs ago and she was scandalous

Wave insurance are 52 with GA Runoffs, NC and OH, but we haven't seen a poll in NC, we won Gov race in 2020.

Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016, 5 yrs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Really impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCKoREtKurY&feature=emb_title

Just because TMac is tied to Trump doesn't mean anything especially to Blacks since in no way is T Mac tied to the insurrection, like other Rs are, T Mac wins 52/46/2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why this race is so close Northam isn't thaylr well liked, there can be an upset between Newsom or McAuliffe because Newsom is playing with who gets 600 and not giving it the everyone in a state that gives GR to homelessness and they don't pay state income tax but pay sales taxes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Newsom loses, the Gov might change hands the D's have held onto VA and CA Govs for a decade now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it won't hurt the D's in 291 EC map due to clean energy, it does hurt D's I'm red wall states because our military is part of the red wall and oil state
VA is our navy, they aren't as militaristic as the other armed forces

Like Marines are from OH state, they are definitely concerned in OH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If McAuliffe wins it will be a result of having a proven track record as governor already and the state's further increasing liberal bent.

If Youngkin wins it will be a result of a depressed Democratic turnout in DC area and a very strong Republican turnout in places like Chesterfield and Virginia Beach. Also, it will have also been a result of Youngkin doing better than expected in the debates and being able to tie McAuliffe to Biden somehow.

Attacking a president who's not underwater isn't going to help very much. Also, GE debates change nobody's mind.

Military issues would definitely be more effective as a national issue than a state one, even in vet-heavy Virginia.

Biden's approvals are already in the toilet.

Lol the NPVi in 2020 was 50/45 he is exactly where it was 49/48%, much better than Trump and it's not even 2022 yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna lose a blue wall state until they do with VBM starting and Early Vote, TMac should be fine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1441374272602218496

Because of course.

Here we go again.  Dems are going to lose a state that Biden won by 10 points.  Of course this is happening. 

Lol we have Early Vote and VBM, but the Shutdown is looming and that's why Ds have fallen behind, you do know VA is a Govt employees state you know

But0, I expect D's to bank in Early votes, Elder got crushed 70/30 in Early voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

T Mac should win but a Prolonged Govt Shutdown in Govt state where TSA workers aren't gonna get paid, is bad for D's on Same day voting, not VBM

It's Likely D but it can change in Oct if the Shutdown happens

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everything that Roxas said.

It's quite possible this is closer than VA-GOV 2017, but at the same time, media is doing the same thing they did in 2017.

Not to mention, T-Mac is +3.3 right now, and that is WITH a +5 Youngkin poll in the mix. This race isn't a "dead heat". T-Mac has had the edge, even if it's a "smaller" relative one, the entire time.

You know a Govt Shutdown is looming if it's pronged it would be bad for TMac

Newsom would be in trouble too, but his was before the Shutdown, D's want to raise the Debt Ceiling on a 3.5T bill that we can't even afford the tax cuts and ,29T we already have

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

I am very confident Trumpkin will not win Oakton. lol

Trumpkin will carry great falls of course.

As I have said it's Likely D VA Gov, but we don't know what the effects of a prolonged Govt Shutdown in VA race will have on same day voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Running retread candidates in a Biden Midterm isn't good they should of ran someone else

Kaine is up in 2024/ so Rs winning VA GOV RACE WONT MATTER THAT MUCH FOR 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

T Mac was endangered of losing die to a prolonged Govt Shutdown in VA is a Govt state and they can't layoff TSA workers like they did in 2019/ since no Govt shutdown D's win that was the last day of hope for Youngkin

Just like if McCarthy becomes Speaker and shutdown Govt with Biden, D's will win the H back in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are spending all this morning ney on a DLC Dem Terry he is no different than Newsom whom promised Golden State stimulus after the Election to avoid the Recall and nothing happened

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problems underneath the bad Approvals of Biden is open borders, he was told by Carville that if you get everyone vaccinated by July, Covid would be over and he can impliment his amnesty immigration reform. Just like Ludlow said we have contained this and Pence said Covid would be over by last May

He wants to impliment still his amnesty program in a Covid Environment and the Parliamentary didn't go for it, do his is allowing open borders

That's why Beto and Charlie Crist you don't hear much about them anymore, due to pen borders

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fairfax is delayed in voting so it won't matter until Fairfax come in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I told you that Spending bill isn't worth anything, Biden wants to give 450K to Immigrants instead of giving us another 1400

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So many polls again got this race wrong one point Terry leads and it's a 10 pt blowouts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We can still win in 2024/ MI, WI and PA plus AZ or GA will give D 270 this isn't the end of the Biden Prez this is the end of a Landslide Election, donations to Wave insurance candidates will be foolish after these of results.
Kaine is still favored in 2024 unless he gets a strong challenge

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When you don't see Harris or Pelosi on TV something is wrong, where is Carville whom said like Pence instead of May, Covid would be over on July

Remember, D's won in 2020 in part due to 1400 checks not a social spending package

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't gonna transcend to 2922 all that much because MI, PA abd WI still gives us 265 votes and AZ, GA and VA gives us 27o, it's been a 3o4 map plus OH and NC Senate are still winnable


DeWine, Reynolds and DeSantis have 57 percent Approvals but Covid is depressing the vote and it wasn't supposed to last the 1.9 R was to crush the virus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yoú have to be a serious D hack to spin this as "this doesn’t tell us anything about 2022." If Republicans lost a high-profile, high-turnout, nationalized gubernatorial campaign in Iowa (as well as all of their statewide offices, one of which was held by an incumbent) and were only three points away from an embarrassment in Tennessee, no one would pretend that this somehow wouldn’t foreshadow a disastrous environment for them in next year's midterm elections. Obviously federal races aren’t gubernatorial races, but there was a very clear pattern in those elections, and it’s very, very bad for Democrats across the board. You can maybe explain away the PA races (but even that would require letting the "D base turns out at a far higher rate than the GOP base, especially without Trump on the ballot" theory go), but if you had told anyone in January 2021 that Northern Virginia and New Jersey of all places would have such sizable swings to the Republicans, you would have been laughed off the forum and mocked relentlessly.

Lol the Debt Ceiling and Dem two bills will be passed by Congress next Nov, Youngkin won by 4 pts in a Southern state, you have to be an R hack to think 45 percent Approvals are gonna stay forever, it doesn't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is ye from now anything can happen between now and a yr and 2024

It's probably too late for Covid to end by 2022 but not too late 1400 days from now which Biden will benefit from is Covid leaces

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 1T Governorship anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andy Beshear has the same Approvals