Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[LtNOWIS]

Well, Kirk Cox is in:

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1328554934523072512

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So I guess Gade isn't running for Governor:

https://twitter.com/WAVY_News/status/1333486703747739649?s=20

VoteVets already exists. And I don't see the point, vets aren't especially different from the population at large, there are good vets and atrociously bad ones too. Doing a job for a couple of years doesn't magically make you a more capable legislator or public executive.

VoteVets is a specifically Democratic organization. AFAIK there's no GOP equivalent of any prominence, so that's a niche that could exist.

Anyways it's true that veterans are not significantly different than the general populace, in either their electoral skills or their governing/legislating skills. But the perception that they are still makes donors inclined to support them, especially in swing races. So Gade is wise to tap into that money stream.

And not just for cynical self-serving reasons. If I'm a dedicated Republican and dedicated American who has the ability to do this, it makes sense for me to take this on instead of some other idiot who will do a worse job of it. Plus as a career Army guy he probably does want more veterans in government, either because he buys into the idea that they are better on some key military/veterans issues, the vague moral idea that our leaders should have demonstrated their virtue by sleeping in a tent in a bad climate with mediocre food, or for more openly "identity politics" reasons.

It might sound like I'm dumping on those impulses, but that's been a consistent aspect of my own political identity for my entire adult life.

[LtNOWIS]

What's the process to change the rule to allow governors to serve 2 consecutive terms? Is a majority in state assembly alone is enough to change the rule? Or do you need a super majority?

It would require amending the state constitution. There is no supermajority requirement, but it's not just passing a law.

Both houses of the state legislature need to approve a proposed amendment by simple majority. That automatically refers it to the session after the next general election. If the state legislature approves it again, it goes to the voters to vote on directly. If they approve it then it's in the constitution.

[LtNOWIS]

What's the process to change the rule to allow governors to serve 2 consecutive terms? Is a majority in state assembly alone is enough to change the rule? Or do you need a super majority?

It would require amending the state constitution. There is no supermajority requirement, but it's not just passing a law.

Both houses of the state legislature need to approve a proposed amendment by simple majority. That automatically refers it to the session after the next general election. If the state legislature approves it again, it goes to the voters to vote on directly. If they approve it then it's in the constitution.

I actually dig this amendment process. Has there been any talk about modifying the governorship?

There hasn't been any impetus to change the term limit situation. In recent decades any popular ex-governors would just run for US Senate or something, if they wanted to stay active in politics.

There's also the dynamic that any ambitious legislator who advanced such an amendment would just be blocking their own path of advancement.

[LtNOWIS]

Yeah, Carroll Foy needs to switch to the Lieutenant Governor's race.

That said, I'm not as convinced Terry McAuliffe can win the Democratic Primary a second time.

He isn't Mark Warner or Tim Kaine, he has some serious ethical issues dating back to his time as a friend of the Clintons (and I'd rather not see someone connected to Bill and Hillary Clinton win anyways.)

Carroll Foy probably can't beat T-Mac, but she probably has a better shot than she would as one of 8 Democrats in the LG race.

Name one reason you hate hin lol. Hes been an effective legislator in the house of delegates and got Maced during the black lives matter protests I like the guy. It seems you don't like him cause he's funny on twitter lol.

Anyone who's been on political Twitter knows the bitter divide between the so-called establishment and "rose Twitter." It was obvious in the presidential primary, its roots go back years, and it has very little to do with voting records. Certainly not at the state level.

Nobody outside of Northern Virginia who has even heard of Lee Carter would be ignorant of this dynamic.

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https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

[LtNOWIS]

Why do they even keep the convention system? The only time I can see it making sense is for a special election.

The rule is, each party decides on a case by case basis whether to have a primary or convention, at every level of government, every cycle. So in 2020 the GOP had a primary for US Senate and some House districts, but a convention for other House districts.

In the past, incumbents and other power brokers could put their thumb in the scale to choose whatever method benefited them in whatever circumstance.

But in recent decades in the Virginia GOP, there have been a lot of pro-convention partisans in party circles. They advance a few distinct arguments. 

The first argument is that a convention has multiple rounds of balloting, forcing someone to get a majority of the vote. That prevents someone from winning where they are disliked by the majority of the party. The counter-argument is that you're getting a majority of a tiny disproportionate subset of the party, namely people willing and able to travel to some convention hall for this nonsense.

The second argument is that conventions are only for Republicans. With no party registration, any state-run primary would be open to all Virginia voters, including independents and Evil Democrat saboteurs. The counter-argument is that, someone who can win independent votes is actually who you want in a general election, and that Democrats are too busy with their own primaries to sabotage things.

The third argument, which doesn't get vocalized, is that conventions give power and influence to the types of people who can attend these events. These are the same types of people who can attend and win support in the district meetings where State Central Committee members are selected. And if you like these events, a convention where they pick a candidate is going to be much better attended than an event where they only pick party officers and pass some utterly meaningless resolutions. Every delegate can meet all the candidates in person and talk to them. The night before the voting is like a big party, and the serious candidates will have food and alcohol to try to gain favor with the delegates. For a politics nerd it's actually a good time.

[LtNOWIS]

I admit I don't understand Snyder or Youngkin.  I get Kirk Cox (generic republican), de la Pena (conservative but was military), and Chase but what are Snyder and Youngkin's lanes?  Are they just trying to portray themselves as business conservatives or is there something more?

Snyder should've been the Lt. Governor nominee in 2013, but the idiot convention attendees picked E.W. Jackson instead. Snyder lost on the 4th ballot. If there's another convention, he should have an advantage. He knows the system, he proved he can do well in it, and the delegates may remember him from back then.

Youngkin is a "conservative outsider" businessman, running in that lane. I got a mailer from him yesterday which has some painfully boilerplate talking points, but which does emphasize that he is "Not a Politician!" What really sets him apart though, is that his net worth is over $250 million. If there was a primary, he could easily self fund his way to victory. For a convention he'll have a tougher time but the money will still help.

So far I've gotten mailers from Snyder, Youngkin, and Cox, and nobody else. No Democrats have sent me anything.

For reference, I attended the 2013 and 2014 GOP conventions, and voted in GOP primaries in 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, and June 2020. I voted in Dem primaries in 2019 and March 2020.

[LtNOWIS]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

[LtNOWIS]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this definitely seems like a way to get more extreme conservative candidates, right? Just as a matter of practicality moderate NOVA Republicans will be less likely to drive all the way down to Lynchburg. The delegates will probably be mostly the more conservative Republicans from the Lynchburg area/southside just out of geographic practicality.

People who go to conventions are crazier, yes. Signing up ahead of time through your local party is tough for someone who isn't a dedicated activist. But the votes are weighted by county or city, which mitigates any geographic concerns. In addition to preventing the area in the immediate vicinity of the convention site from having an undue influence, it means that you can't just whip up 500 people from your tiny home county to make the trip and have an undue influence that way. I haven't confirmed that they're using weighted votes, but in my experience that's always how they did it at every state and district convention.

[LtNOWIS]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1385435777400807426
VAGOP moment

I think it's always been this way, including at every past convention. They've always been on Saturdays and it always is detrimental to observant Jews, people who work on weekends, military reservists, people who are out of the state, or people who just have lives and don't want to go to some godforsaken basketball arena in Roanoke or something. That's how conventions work.

[LtNOWIS]

I'm very unlikely to change my mind so after being vaccinated this morning,  I went ahead and voted.

Voted for Terry Mcaufflie for Governor candidate, Sam Rasoul for Lt Governor and Jay Jones for attorney General.

Early voting is opened already?

Yes. It opened on Friday.

It's always been crazy early, because the dates were originally for overseas/absentee ballots. In the 2020 Dem primary, I actually cast my Super Tuesday ballot in Virginia before the Iowa caucuses.

[LtNOWIS]

https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/northam-endorses-ayala-for-lieutenant-governor/article_71f0d316-6e3f-56a0-a6f4-4545cc64c648.html

Governor Northam and state legislative leaders are endorsing Hala Ayala for LG. So the races is coming into focus more, with her as the establishment choice, Sam Rasoul as the more progressive choice, and other people having some regional appeal.

[LtNOWIS]

I'm very unlikely to change my mind so after being vaccinated this morning,  I went ahead and voted.

Voted for Terry Mcaufflie for Governor candidate, Sam Rasoul for Lt Governor and Jay Jones for attorney General.

I voted a little differently:

Governor: Terry McAuliffe
Lt. Governor: Hala Ayala
Attorney General: Mark Herring

This is how I'm planning to vote as well. I'm gonna wait until election day it self though, so I can properly research my city elections.

[LtNOWIS]

For anyone expecting to crack a beer on Saturday night to watch the VA GOP convention results come in:

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1389310443630567428

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Honestly the most interesting part by far is the the Dem LG primary race because it's the only part that's competitive. McAuliffe and Herring are both heavily favored to win the primary and general elections. So the next month determines whether Rasoul, Ayala, or maybe someone else is the LG. They'll be "next in line," for the governorship in 2025, unless Herring has sufficiently restored his image.

[LtNOWIS]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

No, she's not favored, but not exactly disfavored - whereas she would at this point by a full election/insider convention. And yes, if she's the nominee then a Dem landslide becomes a possibility.

Normal conventions in Virginia aren't for insiders, they're for whoever wants to sign up and show up. You don't get any savvy insiders, you get extremist idiots who drive to the convention site and think that EW Jackson is a viable candidate because he gave a good speech or something.

[LtNOWIS]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

Actually now that I think about it, I'm curious as to your voter history. I'm not a convention delegate either, but I was in 2013 and 2014. And I voted in various GOP primaries since then.  My mailbox is absolutely flooded with mailers against and for Youngkin, Snyder, and to a lesser extent Cox. And some stuff for the AG race.  But I've heard basically nothing for or against Chase at any point.

So we have completely separate mail piles, it seems.

[LtNOWIS]

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/details-may-8-gop-convention/

VPAP has the schedule for how they're going to do the count and release results. They're gonna bring all the ballots to Richmond, and begin counting on 1 PM Sunday. First they'll do it for the AG race, then the LG race, then the Gubernatorial race. They'll be finished with all three races by Tuesday, unless they get ahead of schedule.

[LtNOWIS]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

In Virginia, for every race, the party can decide how they choose their nominees. Sometimes they go for a primary, sometimes they go for a convention or some other party-run process. In even years, you will see different congressional districts use different methods.

For the Republican party, there is a bitter divide among the activists among people who like primaries and people who like conventions. The pro-convention people argue that a primary has non-Republicans voting in it, because Virginia is an "open primary" state. And also that a candidate can win with only a plurality of the vote, not a majority. Therefore a primary cannot truly represent the will of the party itself. The pro-primary people argue that conventions are a huge waste of time, make it impossible for people to vote if they have other commitments, and produce awful, unelectable candidates. Then there are some people in the middle who choose on a case-by-case basis for each race.

So when choosing statewide nominees, the Virginia GOP had conventions in 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2014, and primaries in 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2020. Either the pro-conventionists are ascendant in the party now, or the pragmatists thought this would be a good way to stop Amanda Chase from winning the nomination with only a plurality of the vote.

[LtNOWIS]

I think this is gonna come down to the wire. I think Smith could win a majority of the Jack White voters, but it might not be enough to make up his deficit.

Just curious, since this "convention" isn't run by the state, is there anything stopping someone from participating in the R vote and then turning around and voting in the D primary in June?

Legally, no. But the city and county Republican parties might see that you voted in Dem primaries and revoke your membership for the future.

[LtNOWIS]

I like how Snyder and Younkin have managed to tie Loudon, Arlington and Falls Church.

Yeah, I saw that. But now and it looks like Youngkin pulled out a 181-180 lead in Loudoun. Maybe a retabulation or something.

I was thinking there'd be a close result in Fairfax as well, but Youngkin crushed it there. The nomination is his to lose at this point.

[LtNOWIS]

https://twitter.com/demgovs/status/1359984813915181056

This is extremely relevant to my interests. I'd forgotten about that companies involvement with the whole masters sale issue.

For some reason, Youngkin doesn't have a Wikipedia page yet.

They rejected a draft version of it 44 days ago, because it didn't show him as notable. An improved version of the article was re-submitted before the convention and is awaiting approval.

Random business people, even CEOs with a lot of power and influence, have a hard time getting Wikipedia article because you have to show how their worthy of an article. By contrast, every state legislator is inherently notable on Wikipedia, even if they're not very important in an objective sense.

[LtNOWIS]

Today is Thursday, May 13, 2021. I just checked my mail for today and saw that today I received 8 page booklet extolling the virtues of Kirk Cox for Governor.

Just figured I'd throw that in for flavor.

[LtNOWIS]

Andedoctal update:

Jogged through Vienna to Fairfax today. Many people outside still with masks but less than before. Indoors its nearly 100%.

A few Terry Mcaufflie signs as well.

So good signs for Democrats in nova at least.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1395506490232946690
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP... that is all this election will be about apparently. TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP.

Tmac is destined to lose Virginia Beach and Chestferfield County this fall.. but he can't lose them by double digits. Those types of ads will be off putting down there.

He doesn't have to run the ad everywhere. If he's smart, he'll play anti-Trump ads in the DC media market, and different ads downstate.