Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

Trumpkin won by 2%

[Frenchrepublican]

How would you rate a Cox / McAuliffe matchup ?

[jamestroll]

How would you rate a Cox / McAuliffe matchup ?

Tilt McAulliffe.

Neither candidate would win by a wide margin. My hunch is that Cox would overperform a bit in the Richmond area and that Hampton Roads would revert back to more moderated voting patterns.

Nova was somewhat of a shocker. It voted Democratic up and down the ballot and Wexton did not significantly underperform Biden unlike Democrats in places like Orange which suggest the number of people in Loudoun/Fairfax willing to vote for a Republican candidate for Governor may be limited.

Lt. Governor I have no rating right now.

Attorney General:  Likely Democratic.

[jamestroll]

I do feel like Republicans are over estimating their chances in these elections for VA -2021 but some people on Atlas will over estimate the Dem margins.

[tosk]

any insights on riggleman?

[jamestroll]

any insights on riggleman?

He might run as either Republican or independent. He would stand as much chance as Kirk Cox statewide. Basically, decent but not favored.

[Frenchrepublican]

any insights on riggleman?

He might run as either Republican or independent. He would stand as much chance as Kirk Cox statewide. Basically, decent but not favored.

In this case the race would be close to Safe D.

[jamestroll]

any insights on riggleman?

He might run as either Republican or independent. He would stand as much chance as Kirk Cox statewide. Basically, decent but not favored.

In this case the race would be close to Safe D.

haha yes. If Riggleman won the nomination as a Republican it would be a watched race. Decent chance but like I said not favored.

2021 Elections in Virginia will be a good test to Biden's appeal in suburbs. Look especially around Richmond and Hampton Roads. Now a narrow loss in Chesterfield County would not be a big deal for the Democrats but if Henrico County is competitive or if the GOP sweeps the Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads (except Norfolk, Hampton, Newport news and all those tiny cities) that would obviously be a bad omen.

[jamestroll]

Now let's say it is a normal democrat versus a normal Republican and the GOP wins Chesterfield County by 10+ points, carries Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach easy and we see Loudoun showing GOP numbers nearly the mid-40s (it is the most flexible of all of Nova).. that would be cause for alarm for Democrats.

[Heebie Jeebie]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

[Lognog]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

[Heebie Jeebie]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

Despite all the signals, I don't think he'll run.

If he does, though, yeah, Tmac will be governor again.  Kenny Alexander gets bumped down to Lt. Governor in that case.

[Not Me, Us]

Any primary challengers to Herring? He really shouldn't be in public office.

[I need an explanation]

Let’s just hope Corey Stewart doesn’t try to run again.

[KaiserDave]

Let’s just hope Corey Stewart doesn’t does try to run again.

So we can get a wonderful 2018-VA SEN map yes he should.

[Lognog]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

Despite all the signals, I don't think he'll run.

If he does, though, yeah, Tmac will be governor again.  Kenny Alexander gets bumped down to Lt. Governor in that case.

it's not just signals, he's literally filed the paper work

[Heebie Jeebie]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

Despite all the signals, I don't think he'll run.

If he does, though, yeah, Tmac will be governor again.  Kenny Alexander gets bumped down to Lt. Governor in that case.

it's not just signals, he's literally filed the paper work

It's not uncommon to file the paper work and then back out.  I'll wait for an official announcement.

I kind of hope he does run, though.  He was a good governor the first time around.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

Despite all the signals, I don't think he'll run.

If he does, though, yeah, Tmac will be governor again.  Kenny Alexander gets bumped down to Lt. Governor in that case.

it's not just signals, he's literally filed the paper work

It's not uncommon to file the paper work and then back out.  I'll wait for an official announcement.

I kind of hope he does run, though.  He was a good governor the first time around.

I feel him filing papers was more a warning/safety net after several prominent democrats had major scandals, Like “if I have to come down there and fix your mess fine”. I don’t think he’ll jump in in the end

[Lognog]

2021 Predictions:

Governor:  Kenny Alexander
Lt. Governor:  Levar Stoney
Attorney General:  Mark Herring

no one is beating Tmac

Despite all the signals, I don't think he'll run.

If he does, though, yeah, Tmac will be governor again.  Kenny Alexander gets bumped down to Lt. Governor in that case.

it's not just signals, he's literally filed the paper work

It's not uncommon to file the paper work and then back out.  I'll wait for an official announcement.

I kind of hope he does run, though.  He was a good governor the first time around.

maybe he doesn't, I certainly hope he doesn't

There's a chance he finds himself in the cabinet in say commerce

[KaiserDave]

I hope TMac runs because then we win

[jamestroll]

terry mcauliffe has already ruled out  a Biden administration post. He is running for sure.

[tosk]

terry mcauliffe has already ruled out  a Biden administration post. He is running for sure.

I was going to ask you if you heard rumors about him on the ground. If I was on his team I would no doubt be telling him to run. As a republican, I'm not thrilled because I know what it means for our chances in the race. But clearly he should run.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Republicans need to run a fiscally conservative socially moderate/liberal candidate to have any chance of winning but of course they won't because how could one survive a GOP primary (see Riggleman). 

[jamestroll]

The Republicans need to run a fiscally conservative socially moderate/liberal candidate to have any chance of winning but of course they won't because how could one survive a GOP primary (see Riggleman). 

If I Republican wins this election I will throw stuff, break all my windows, bang my head against the wall and claim voter fraud.

[jamestroll]

terry mcauliffe has already ruled out  a Biden administration post. He is running for sure.

I was going to ask you if you heard rumors about him on the ground. If I was on his team I would no doubt be telling him to run. As a republican, I'm not thrilled because I know what it means for our chances in the race. But clearly he should run.

He is very strongly likely to run.

My impression of the candidates are:

McAuliffe: Very likely to win unless he just gets lazy.

Fairfax: He could well lose statewide and it would depend on who the GOP Nominates.

Jennifer Carrol Foy: Reasonably strong but has a chance of being overrated.

Jennifer McClellan: Wont be as large of a factor in the primary as you would think