Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[roxas11]

To be honest, I'm actually glad that Cook and others are acting like the race is a real tossup

Acting like? They say wherever data leads.

This news will force Dems not get complacent and it will also end up being a far bigger deal if Dems do end up winning big in Virginia because this time around the media won't be able to simply dismiss the victory because it was in a blue state since they were the one who insisted that the race was a toss up in the first place lol

I guess, you try to make a comparison with CA (media didn't "dismissed" the victory there btw)? Biden is quite popular there, but likely is underwater here. Dems will probably still win, but a relatively close race is not a good news for Dems.

Also, what media says it's a toss up? Cook is for nerds, literally no one else knows who they are. Imo, media says it Lean D. If anything, they will spin it as a win for D, even if the results turns out to be relatively close.

1. Acting like? They say wherever data leads.

Cook report is no different than Politico or any other news media website. They are just as click driven as everybody else' and you are fooling yourself if you honestly don't think that plays a role in what narratives they try to push on social media

2. Media didn't "dismissed" the victory there btw)?

This is statement is just flat out wrong because many Fox News commentators not only dismissed the victory in California they also said not to read too much into the results because California was a very blue state.

3. Also, what media says it's a toss up?

CBS literally just posted a video on youtube saying that race it now tightening


4. Cook is for nerds, literally no one else knows who they are.

This statement is just silly because The news media regularly use's The Cook Report in the headlines of their stories and here is an example

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/elections/cook-report-calls-democrats-the-clear-favorite-to-take-senate-control-as-races-tilt-leftward.html

Sorry Vaccinated Russian Bear but trying to pass The Cook Political Report off as some unknown media organization that nobody really knows about is ridiculous. With the help of the big media companies their reports end up getting seen by a lot more people than just a few nerds on the internet


5. Media says it Lean D. If anything, they will spin it as a win for D

The media leans toward whatever sells the most newspapers or gets the most clicks on their website. This is a big reason why they focused so much Bill Clinton sex scandals the 90s and it is also the reason why they focused on so much on Trump's many personal scandals recently.

I have no doubt whatsoever that if Biden was facing the same kind of controversies that bill Clinton or Trump faced while in office the so called liberal media would be throwing him under the bus right about now while they push even more negative stories about him for ratings and clicks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

T Mac should win but a Prolonged Govt Shutdown in Govt state where TSA workers aren't gonna get paid, is bad for D's on Same day voting, not VBM

It's Likely D but it can change in Oct if the Shutdown happens

[wbrocks67]

Everything that Roxas said.

It's quite possible this is closer than VA-GOV 2017, but at the same time, media is doing the same thing they did in 2017.

Not to mention, T-Mac is +3.3 right now, and that is WITH a +5 Youngkin poll in the mix. This race isn't a "dead heat". T-Mac has had the edge, even if it's a "smaller" relative one, the entire time.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Youngkin looked pretty put together in the first debate against TMac.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everything that Roxas said.

It's quite possible this is closer than VA-GOV 2017, but at the same time, media is doing the same thing they did in 2017.

Not to mention, T-Mac is +3.3 right now, and that is WITH a +5 Youngkin poll in the mix. This race isn't a "dead heat". T-Mac has had the edge, even if it's a "smaller" relative one, the entire time.

You know a Govt Shutdown is looming if it's pronged it would be bad for TMac

Newsom would be in trouble too, but his was before the Shutdown, D's want to raise the Debt Ceiling on a 3.5T bill that we can't even afford the tax cuts and ,29T we already have

[Non Swing Voter]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

[jamestroll]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

I am very confident Trumpkin will not win Oakton. lol

Trumpkin will carry great falls of course.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

I am very confident Trumpkin will not win Oakton. lol

Trumpkin will carry great falls of course.

As I have said it's Likely D VA Gov, but we don't know what the effects of a prolonged Govt Shutdown in VA race will have on same day voting

[wbrocks67]

First the vaccine stuff and now this

https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1442252251008061446

[Dan the Roman]

I think tossup makes sense in terms of probabilities of outcomes but not probabilities of margins. IMHO we do not really know.

My impression is that almost all reliable polling, private, public internal points to around a 3% Tmac lead with TMAC at 48%-51% and Youngkin at 46%-48%. Absent one weird likely voter screen and random polls with candidates in the 30s that is what everything shows. Now what we need to do is to distinguish between what the data shows and what everyone involved thinks. Because there is this weird view insiders have some sort of secret knowledge. They do not. They have access to what other insiders and campaigns think but in this case like many others, those folks themselves don't actually know.

There are basically three different clusters of possible results

48-47% Youngkin Plurality - Basically Democratic nightmare. Non-white turnout craters, and Youngkin gets enough of a margin in Virginia beach and outer NoVA to sneak in a win. In this scenario GOP likely takes back HOD and possibly all three statewide races.

50-47% TMAC win - the outcome polling points to. I actually think this is the least likely. It is a median outcome in which most major uncertainties work out in a manner which cancels each other out. It is showing up in polling because everyone is being ultra cautious. Youngkin and R groups do not want to assume miracles so they model the electorate they think they can get which will make them competitive rather than what they hope for. Democrats are modeling the electorate they worry about and assume traditional dropoff. In effect everyone is polling for 2013. If it is 2013 this will be the result. But I am unsure it will be 2013 and I don't think either campaign believes it will be. In 2017 everyone did this as well which is one reason Northam was so lowballed.

52-46% TmAc - This is the CA outcome. It sees Ds hold HOD and all three statewide races. This indicates that upscale whites and Asians tempted by CRT stuff and pissed off at how leftwing the new D trifecta went come home massively due to fear the GOP has been taken over by anti-vax, anti-restrictionist, anti-mask folks.

If I had to guess we will get either #1 or #3, and in that sense it is a tossup. But there are a couple of moving pieces

1. Asians - I think this is the factor which really isn't considered enough. The 2020 census showed 8.8% of VA residents are now Asian American. They are the fasting growing demographic. I bring this up because a lot of the focus on CRT/School boards in the spring was about Asian parents being upset about attacks on merit based policies. But what we have seen in California and Canada is whatever their issues with the identity politics Left, Asians will not in the age of Covid vote for anti-restrictions or perceived anti-Vaccine parties.  There is a reason Youngkin is being hammered on that. If Asians are 7-8% of the electorate and vote 75%-80% D that is already a huge problem because of

2. College educated women - This is another group which may have issues with a multitude of Democratic policies and candidates but seem to have decided they will never vote for the current GOP. Youngkin's descent into generic R indicates he knows any chance of gains here is long gone and expects to be destroyed.

Both of these groups are now voting if anything more Democratic than in 2020 so far in 2021 that means any dropoff has to come from

African Americans
Hispanics
College White Men
Non College Whites

African Americans - this will largely be a turnout dropoff, will happen question is what degree

Hispanics - probably will be an R shift but Virginia is a state where Asians outnumber them, and are more likely to turnout and vote

College White men - what they do will determine this election. If they swing massively R then Youngkin has a chance. A marginal R swing means TmAc wins comfortably.

Non College Whites - Ds have been in free fall for some time and they may well have turnout issues.

Basically this election will come down to College White men. Youngkin probably needs Bush margins to have a shot.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Cook doesn't even say, it's a pure toss-up. They say, McAuliffe has a slight age (and many fundamentals are towards him). Had they Tilt rating, they'd probably use that. They say also, that while GOP has enthusiasm advantage, for now, it can change as it did in CA.




Imo, not really a hot take.


No, they are not click-bate, quite the opposite. They need to deliver good analyses, otherwise why would people pay them for?

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac's negative vaccine commercials finally dropped.  Basically plays the whole tape of the appalling sh** Youngkin said about getting exceptions.  Perfect timing too as early voting will start kicking into higher gear soon, especially in NOVA where this isn't gonna play well for Trumpkin. 

[xavier110]

I think tossup makes sense in terms of probabilities of outcomes but not probabilities of margins. IMHO we do not really know.

My impression is that almost all reliable polling, private, public internal points to around a 3% Tmac lead with TMAC at 48%-51% and Youngkin at 46%-48%. Absent one weird likely voter screen and random polls with candidates in the 30s that is what everything shows. Now what we need to do is to distinguish between what the data shows and what everyone involved thinks. Because there is this weird view insiders have some sort of secret knowledge. They do not. They have access to what other insiders and campaigns think but in this case like many others, those folks themselves don't actually know.

There are basically three different clusters of possible results

48-47% Youngkin Plurality - Basically Democratic nightmare. Non-white turnout craters, and Youngkin gets enough of a margin in Virginia beach and outer NoVA to sneak in a win. In this scenario GOP likely takes back HOD and possibly all three statewide races.

50-47% TMAC win - the outcome polling points to. I actually think this is the least likely. It is a median outcome in which most major uncertainties work out in a manner which cancels each other out. It is showing up in polling because everyone is being ultra cautious. Youngkin and R groups do not want to assume miracles so they model the electorate they think they can get which will make them competitive rather than what they hope for. Democrats are modeling the electorate they worry about and assume traditional dropoff. In effect everyone is polling for 2013. If it is 2013 this will be the result. But I am unsure it will be 2013 and I don't think either campaign believes it will be. In 2017 everyone did this as well which is one reason Northam was so lowballed.

52-46% TmAc - This is the CA outcome. It sees Ds hold HOD and all three statewide races. This indicates that upscale whites and Asians tempted by CRT stuff and pissed off at how leftwing the new D trifecta went come home massively due to fear the GOP has been taken over by anti-vax, anti-restrictionist, anti-mask folks.

If I had to guess we will get either #1 or #3, and in that sense it is a tossup. But there are a couple of moving pieces

1. Asians - I think this is the factor which really isn't considered enough. The 2020 census showed 8.8% of VA residents are now Asian American. They are the fasting growing demographic. I bring this up because a lot of the focus on CRT/School boards in the spring was about Asian parents being upset about attacks on merit based policies. But what we have seen in California and Canada is whatever their issues with the identity politics Left, Asians will not in the age of Covid vote for anti-restrictions or perceived anti-Vaccine parties.  There is a reason Youngkin is being hammered on that. If Asians are 7-8% of the electorate and vote 75%-80% D that is already a huge problem because of

2. College educated women - This is another group which may have issues with a multitude of Democratic policies and candidates but seem to have decided they will never vote for the current GOP. Youngkin's descent into generic R indicates he knows any chance of gains here is long gone and expects to be destroyed.

Both of these groups are now voting if anything more Democratic than in 2020 so far in 2021 that means any dropoff has to come from

African Americans
Hispanics
College White Men
Non College Whites

African Americans - this will largely be a turnout dropoff, will happen question is what degree

Hispanics - probably will be an R shift but Virginia is a state where Asians outnumber them, and are more likely to turnout and vote

College White men - what they do will determine this election. If they swing massively R then Youngkin has a chance. A marginal R swing means TmAc wins comfortably.

Non College Whites - Ds have been in free fall for some time and they may well have turnout issues.

Basically this election will come down to College White men. Youngkin probably needs Bush margins to have a shot.

This is a great breakdown. If Youngkin is relying on any college educated demo, he’s in deep ****.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dude, Cook is way too overrated here.  Yeah the media uses them but isn't one of the many reasons why the media was so far off in their estimates of 2020, saying Dems would pickup house seats when they lost some.  Cook has this tendency to shift races whatever way the wind is blowing and puts way too much stuff in the tossup category IMO.

[wbrocks67]

Cook doesn't even say, it's a pure toss-up. They say, McAuliffe has a slight age (and many fundamentals are towards him). Had they Tilt rating, they'd probably use that. They say also, that while GOP has enthusiasm advantage, for now, it can change as it did in CA.




Imo, not really a hot take.


No, they are not click-bate, quite the opposite. They need to deliver good analyses, otherwise why would people pay them for?

Or maybe pollsters are doing a really bad job at trying to "make up for mistakes" from 2020 and GOP never really had an enthusiasm edge in CA...

[LtNOWIS]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

I am very confident Trumpkin will not win Oakton. lol

Trumpkin will carry great falls of course.

I just realized we will never know for sure who won either area, as absentee votes are still routed through the central absentee precinct for Fairfax County.

[jamestroll]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

I am very confident Trumpkin will not win Oakton. lol

Trumpkin will carry great falls of course.

I just realized we will never know for sure who won either area, as absentee votes are still routed through the central absentee precinct for Fairfax County.

I believe that changes next cycle but I saw a mathematically formula on twitter that can get the final numbers accurate.

Though the point remains that it is highly highly unlikely Trumpkin carries Oakton, VA. In fact, its one of the few places I have been Tmac yard signs lol.

[wbrocks67]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

[Gass3268]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

After what happened in California, I'm of the opinion that these articles are a net positive to Democrats, especially in high media intake states like Virginia.

[Matty]

I’m still confused why I, as a Republican, should be discouraged by a dem +3 result in a dem +10 state, especially if our VA posters are right that Youngkin has run a terrible campaign?

Democrats rightfully were optimistic in 2017 after they overperformed (but still lost) all sorts of areas.

Obviously I want a win for Youngkin, but it would be tough for me to be upset if he keeps it close it under a 4 point loss.

Here’s my barometer

Dem loss: 2022 will be bloodbath

Dem win +1-4: suggests 2022 will be gop house takeover

Dem win +5-6: 2022 still trending close to 2020

Dem win 7-10: disappointing for gop

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/Michelle4VA50/status/1442927730895376384?s=19

Beyond parody. Maybe Carter was the right choice after all.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

In what way are these articles are 'Dems in disarray in VA'? What's wrong with these articles?

[wbrocks67]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

In what way are these articles are 'Dems in disarray in VA'? What's wrong with these articles?

Both articles are about how worried the Dems should be, despite virtually all polls showing T-Mac with at least a +3 lead (some with 5, 7, 9) and virtually being not critical at all towards Republicans, who have a candidate who has barely passed 44% in any of the polling.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

After what happened in California, I'm of the opinion that these articles are a net positive to Democrats, especially in high media intake states like Virginia.

I agree. Even in races like this which Democrats will not lose no matter what, I perpetually think that it's beneficial to run or look at a campaign as if one is losing. Better safe than sorry, and at a minimum it may galvanize the Democratic base to turn out due to not wanting to take a risk by sitting the election out.

[Real Texan Politics]

Is that really an endorsement you wanna brag about though?
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1442999842771546113?s=20
Although NOVA is a pretty neocon/neolib/Lincoln Project type area so maybe it actually helps Terry after all?