Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

I agree Democrats will win this election but not by much. Single digits.

I mean, Northam didn't win by much. "Only" a 9 point single-digit victory.

If they get a similar result in a "BIDEN MID QUARTERTERM!!!", I'd think of that as a big success for VA Dems.

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Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed).

Because as 2020 "arguably showed", having a San Franciscan on the presidential ticket is less of a net negative in the current alignment than a Virginian on the ticket.

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Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

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Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

Wow, how exciting.

All I know is that the Virginia GOP better hope they'll win Chesterfield County in a B I D E N M I D Q U A R T E R T E R M or else they're in for a horrible decade or two.

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Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

Chesterfield voted for Biden/Warner by 7, it will not vote Republican.

And even if it did vote Republican, I'd find anything less than R+5 to be devastating for the Virginia GOP (As if they weren't devastated already).

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Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

Chesterfield voted for Biden/Warner by 7, it will not vote Republican.

7 points isn't that much of a margin to make up. It's certainly possible, although I doubt it'll happen. If there is suburban reversion, I would think it's more likely to happen near Richmond than in NoVA.

Well Henrico County is more Democratic slightly than Loudoun or Prince William in most elections and I dont believe there is a county wide Republican in Henrico.

I may have been to dramatic in saying that Chesterfield will vote for the GOP candidate. But the GOP is favored slightly there in November.

I have seen Chesterfield County compared to St. Charles County Mo. I strongly disagree with that comparison. Chesterfield is nearly 30% black and is more educated.

Even Northam won Chesterfield in 2017 by half a point,  and the trends have certainly not gotten any better for Republicans there over the past 4 years.   It's gone for the GOP.

Even if Jimmie is right in his 99% certainty of Chesterfield County voting GOP this November, there should be no cause for celebration if they win it by like 3-5%. It'd be like celebrating John Cox' campaign if he ended up winning Orange County by 0.2%.

And if it does vote GOP, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being a kind of "last hurrah" for the foreseeable future.

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Virginia has really turned into a pretty boring state politically. Biden still would have won the state by a few points even if you remove Fairfax County, Arlington, and Alexandria. Republicans are finished statewide here.

When the biggest question going into November is "Will the Republican gubernatorial nominee win Chesterfield County?", it's gonna be a very boring election

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Did T-Mac even need their endorsement? Just don't think it warrants the sirens

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You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

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You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

Literally everyone on this site already knows this race is Likely / Safe D - you don't really need to make the same point ten times.

You know it's a boring race when folks get upset when you keep mentioning that it's a boring race

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I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

I don't know why, but that made me laugh.

'No, you can't vote in it. You're a failure'

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^
Should we tell him?

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I love how much the opinion on this race has changed in like 4 hours.

Just because the "sane" Conservative defeated the slightly-less "sane" Conservative doesn't make this race any more competitive than it was yesterday.

Likely D  ---->  Likely D

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Lean D.

*Mic drop*

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I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

Wouldn't it be more Likely D then? I'm not sure if folks are rating based on margins or likelihood

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College educated whites will swing heavily Republican in the 2022 Midterms. Do not let Nova's results this November fool you!!!

Fixed to remove the scrolly bit

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Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

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Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

which is not evidence.

I never said it was. I was more making a crack

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With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win. Chesterfield County is gonna be a bloodbath.

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With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win.

maybe not 3%, but I don't get why it is so unreasonable to expect it in the 5-7 range.

youngkin is a lot more appealing to the state than trump was.

It is a solid blue state at this point.

1. I don't find "More appealing to Virginians than Trump" to be particularly notable. Especially since Trump has already endorsed Youngkin. Tomorrow is when both campaigns start getting into higher gear and I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin becomes less appealing 5 months from now than he does at the present time. (PS: Wasn't Gillespie considered "More appealing to Virginia than Trump" around this time in 2017?)

2. 5-7% sounds reasonable, but that 5-7% gap seems pretty tough for Youngkin to close. I just have trouble seeing this race as Lean D unless you're prioritizing margins over liklihood.

Basically, we'll see how the first polls look whenever they come. I think it'll tell us a lot even this far out.

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With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win. Chesterfield County is gonna be a bloodbath.

The range of the election statewide is between Youngkin + 10 to Tmac +7. Most likely outcome is Tmac by 1 to 3%.

And here I thought I was being too sarcastic. If anything, it's not sarcastic enough.

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Insert "lol Carter" comment here

But seriously, lol Jackson Miller

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At the rate we're going, we're gonna have to splinter off this thread into the Lee Carter megathread

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This really feels like 2017 all over again. Right down to folks overhyping the competitiveness of the race because the Republican doesn't support Trump 100% of the time. It only feels like 4 years ago exactly that Gillespie was considered a threat because he distanced himself from Trump as much as possible without completely abandoning him. Things changed 4 months later and I expect things to change 4 months from now.

I think the only reasons folks consider this a close race is because they still see it as the Virginia of 2013 & Biden is in the White House. I don't see TMac winning by any less than 3 points and it shouldn't be a surprise at all if he ends up winning by 7-9 points. But apparently, it will be.

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I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

Well the state senate isn't up until 2023, so that's the earliest a trifecta can happen unless a Democrat dies, resigns, or switches parties.

Nothing about Youngkin is offputting the way Cucinelli would be.

Given how the attack ads have only just begun, I'd reserve judgement for another few months.