Which of these options for NC is the most likely

[Samof94]

NC is a Purple state who has voted D in 2016 and 2020 for Gov, but was Trump-Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say Trump-D Gov is currently the median outcome, but I don’t think that doenst necessarily make it most likely, which I currently think would be Trump-R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There is zero chance Robinson wins. Zero. It's more likely republicans win every single other council of state office except this one than Robinson winning.

[Samof94]

There is zero chance Robinson wins. Zero. It's more likely republicans win every single other council of state office except this one than Robinson winning.

He seems to be a rather poor candidate and too right wing even for NC.

[SnowLabrador]

There is zero chance Robinson wins. Zero. It's more likely republicans win every single other council of state office except this one than Robinson winning.

He seems to be a rather poor candidate and too right wing even for NC.

Then why is he still leading in most polls?

[Fancyarcher]

There is zero chance Robinson wins. Zero. It's more likely republicans win every single other council of state office except this one than Robinson winning.

He seems to be a rather poor candidate and too right wing even for NC.

Then why is he still leading in most polls?

I think it's just based off an assumption that polls this early out say nothing, and most people don't know Robinson's beliefs. Saying Robinson has zero chance at winning though, doesn't strike me as a particularly accurate. North Carolina is an incredibly polarized state. In the unlikely scenario where Trump wins by more than 2020, then yes he could drag Robinson over the finish line, especially because Stein will likely only outrun Biden by 2 points at best. He doesn't have the incumbency or popularity advantage of Cooper, and Cooper still underperformed in 2020.