Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

If Trumpkin wins the HOD absolutely flips but I doubt it would end up 60 40 GOP. More like 54 to 46 or 55 to 45.

The current HoD is a pretty fair map. The GOP gerrymander in 2011 is for a coalition that no longer exists.

There are about 10 seats that are all around Biden +10 (the statewide margin) with some downballot GOP overperformance.  If Dems win all of them and nothing else, they are at 52 (but one of the 52 is currently a GOP-held open seat).  In a tied/recount margin VA-GOV situation, it's probably a coin flip between a 51D/49R hold and something like a 54R/46D flip depending entirely on the degree down-ballot ticket splitting in Trump-Biden areas.  If Youngkin wins by enough for an election night call, it's likely to be 58R/42D style wipeout.  Conversely, the guaranteed Dem hold point is probably McAuliffe +3.   

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Safe r

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20

This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20

This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20

This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Exactly.  He knows he's losing.  He knows his base is unmotivated.  He's just desperately trying to throw stuff at the wall now to see what sticks.  But yeah the polls showing a 2 point race are really believable because ... something something Biden approval.

[S019]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20
This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

2018?

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20
This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

2018?

The Republicans are planning to roll time backwards to 2018, and will FRAUD their way into winning all the elections they lost in "real" 2018!

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Catalist_US/status/1445798810765049858

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race wins the race by 3 points 6 points single-digits but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

Fixed for moving goalposts

[S019]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race wins the race by 3 points 6 points single-digits but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

Fixed for moving goalposts

For the record, I fully expect Democrats to win and if they lose, it's a sign of a massive Republican wave (think R+8-10, if not more) building in 2022. As I said earlier, I don't think the votes exist for Republicans to win Virginia, at this point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20
This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

2018?

The Republicans are planning to roll time backwards to 2018, and will FRAUD their way into winning all the elections they lost in "real" 2018!

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant! It certainly wasn't an embarrassing brain-fart or anything.

[Matty]

McAuliffe says “unpopular” Biden is drag on his campaign

Virginia gubernatorial Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe cast President Joe Biden and his party’s lawmakers in Congress as a liability in the final weeks of the campaign, with polls showing a tightening race. “We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington,” McAuliffe, a former head of the Democratic National Committee, said during a virtual rally with supporters Tuesday. “As you know, the president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia, so we’ve got to plow through.”

Read more at: https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article254818092.html#storylink=cpy

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

McAuliffe says “unpopular” Biden is drag on his campaign

Virginia gubernatorial Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe cast President Joe Biden and his party’s lawmakers in Congress as a liability in the final weeks of the campaign, with polls showing a tightening race. “We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington,” McAuliffe, a former head of the Democratic National Committee, said during a virtual rally with supporters Tuesday. “As you know, the president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia, so we’ve got to plow through.”

Read more at: https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article254818092.html#storylink=cpy

We have a new separate thread completely devoted to this cataclysmic gaffe.

[Mr.Phips]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race wins the race by 3 points 6 points single-digits but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

Fixed for moving goalposts

For the record, I fully expect Democrats to win and if they lose, it's a sign of a massive Republican wave (think R+8-10, if not more) building in 2022. As I said earlier, I don't think the votes exist for Republicans to win Virginia, at this point.

You’re probably looking at an R+7 ish environment if Youngkin wins, which is basically like 2010.  I think the Dem floor in the popular vote is around 45%-46%.

[roxas11]

McAuliffe says “unpopular” Biden is drag on his campaign

Virginia gubernatorial Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe cast President Joe Biden and his party’s lawmakers in Congress as a liability in the final weeks of the campaign, with polls showing a tightening race. “We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington,” McAuliffe, a former head of the Democratic National Committee, said during a virtual rally with supporters Tuesday. “As you know, the president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia, so we’ve got to plow through.”

Read more at: https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article254818092.html#storylink=cpy

Biden is not even that unpopular and Based on 538 he currently has a 44 percent approval rating. True its mediocre, but that is nothing compared to where Trump was at this point or even other past presidents.

Biden has literally only been below 40 percent in the 1 poll and that is the Quinnipiac University poll. Nothing else that has came before or even since matches the results of that 1 outlier poll. Even Rasmussen currently has biden at 45 percent and that mutch higher than the Quinnipiac poll that claimed that biden is a 38 percent

by comparsion Trump would be lucky if could find any poll showing him at 40 percent and even Obama had faced a much bigger backlash in 2009 since the economy was way worse at the time than it currently is right now under Biden

[Non Swing Voter]

The HOD map is skewed GOP though because the NOVA districts by and large are way more populated than SW VA districts.

[wbrocks67]

POLITICO has run out of all other dems in disarray takes, so now we're focusing on fundraising emails - which historically have *always* been alarmist. This is just getting embarrassing

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1447230803189145613

[roxas11]

POLITICO has run out of all other dems in disarray takes, so now we're focusing on fundraising emails - which historically have *always* been alarmist. This is just getting embarrassing

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1447230803189145613

The irony is that Politico is doing exactly the same thing they are accusing Terry McAuliffe of

They are acting like an alarmist in order to convince people to give them more money or specifically in the case of Politico they are doing it to get more clicks on their website in order to please their advertisers...

[Progressive Pessimist]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

[Devils30]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

Biden won by over 10% in 52 of the Dems 55 current seats in the HoD. Only 12, 75, 91  were below 10% and all 3 went to Clinton in 2016. The Rs will have to flip a couple Biden +11 seats while holding open ones like Kirk Cox's seat.

[Roll Roons]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

Biden won by over 10% in 52 of the Dems 55 current seats in the HoD. Only 12, 75, 91  were below 10% and all 3 went to Clinton in 2016. The Rs will have to flip a couple Biden +11 seats while holding open ones like Kirk Cox's seat.

FWIW, there are currently six Republican delegates from Biden seats. Chaz Nuttycombe has four of those seats as Likely or Safe R - Kirk Cox's open seat is a Tossup and another seat in Chesterfield is Tilt R.

Meanwhile, he's got six Dem-held seats as tossups, two as Tilt D, and two more as Lean D, and all of those seats were won by Biden.

[Devils30]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

Biden won by over 10% in 52 of the Dems 55 current seats in the HoD. Only 12, 75, 91  were below 10% and all 3 went to Clinton in 2016. The Rs will have to flip a couple Biden +11 seats while holding open ones like Kirk Cox's seat.

FWIW, there are currently six Republican delegates from Biden seats. Chaz Nuttycombe has four of those seats as Likely or Safe R - Kirk Cox's open seat is a Tossup and another seat in Chesterfield is Tilt R.

Meanwhile, he's got six Dem-held seats as tossups, two as Tilt D, and two more as Lean D, and all of those seats were won by Biden.

A lot just depends on what the top of the ticket is. A 2017 style polling error could keep Dems at -2 to +2 depending on local districts while accurate polls probably are -3 to -6.

[wbrocks67]

Abrams is going this weekend, so I suspect more high profile Dems will continue thru the closing weeks.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1447512761701969924

[wbrocks67]

The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file.  So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.

Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 187,428 (6.35% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep:  13,871 (1.33% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep:  85,499 (5.24% of total Likely Rep electorate)

https://l2-data.com/2021/10/11/demographic-analysis-of-virginia-10-10-21/