California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Schiff for Senate]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

I'm sorry, an 85 year old is running for Congress? Jesus Christ.

He was running for CA-47 on an explicit pledge to serve only 1 term so that Porter can re-run for her House seat in 2026 in the event that she doesn't win this year's Senate seat, but don't worry, he dropped out earlier this month... to run for a separate state altogether's Senate seat:

Surprised nobody mentioned Mike Schaefer. He was a San Diego City Councilor and then he ran for 33 offices and won the California State Board of Equalization in a upset in 2018.

With Schaefer, his residence where he ran went as follows: San Diego, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> San Diego, CA -> Baltimore, MD -> San Diego, CA -> Los Angeles, CA -> San Diego, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> San Francisco, CA -> Los Angeles, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> Arizona -> Las Vegas, NV -> Baltimore, MD -> Las Vegas, NV -> Los Angeles, CA -> Palm Springs, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> Los Angeles, CA -> San Diego, CA.

Holy s**t.

And his residence may be changing again?? Looks like Schaefer has filed to run for U.S. Senate in Nevada… this is especially odd, because he’s a current officeholder in CA. Can he hold office in CA if he lives/is running for office in Nevada?

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1755246598374740351

Also ran for Mayor of Palm Springs in 2015 on a platform of kicking out homeless camps & building a White Castle there before immediately pivoting to an attempt to be the D to take Cresent Hardy on in NV-04 2016. What a guy:

During the 1960 presidential election, he supported U.S. Senator John F. Kennedy and later served as a staff assistant for state Senator Thomas Kuche. He also worked as an analyst for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

In 1965, Schaefer was elected to the San Diego City Council and served until 1971. In 1968, he received the Republican nomination in California's 37th House district, but was defeated by incumbent Representative Lionel Van Deerlin. In 1970, he was arrested for bribery and conspiracies charges in the 1970 Yellow Cab bribery scandal, but was later acquitted after an eleven-hour deliberation by a jury on January 21, 1971. Later that year, he ran for mayor in the open primary, but received less than one percent of the vote. In 1974, he ran for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State in Nevada, but was defeated by Stanley W. Paher.

Schaefer has owned properties in multiple states. In the 1980s, he was successfully sued by his tenants in Los Angeles for the low quality of his housing; in 1986, jurors awarded them a judgment of $1.83 million, which he preemptively sought to flee by moving to Maryland the year prior, where he purchased the Schaefer Hotel in downtown Baltimore for $450,000 and befriended William Donald Schaefer, of no relation, then serving as the mayor of Baltimore and later as Governor of Maryland. Mike Schaefer believed that sharing a last name with William would help him politically: in 1986, he ran for the Republican nomination for Maryland's Senate election, but was defeated by Linda Chavez; following William Schaefer's death in 2011, Mike filed a $28,000 claim to William's estate.

From the 1990s to the 2010s, he ran for local offices in Los Angeles and San Francisco, Secretary of State of California, state legislative seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Maryland, and mayor in Baltimore and Palm Springs. In 1993, he was convicted of misdemeanor spousal abuse and was later disbarred by the Nevada Supreme Court in 2001. In 2013, comedian Brad Garrett filed a restraining order against Schaefer, stating in his application: "As a celebrity, I am very concerned about stalkers who seek notoriety by associating themselves with me." Under the order, Schaefer is also banned from the MGM Grand Las Vegas. In 2014, he was removed from the Nevada state controller primary in a decision ultimately upheld by the Nevada Supreme Court, as he had failed to meet the residency requirements. In 2015, he was ordered to pay $328 to his live-in landlord.

In 2018, he initially sought to run for California's 54th State Assembly district, but later dropped out as he would rather remain in San Diego and ran in the Board of Equalization's 4th district. He ran as a member of the Democratic Party and placed second in the top-two primary behind state senator Joel Anderson. On November 6, 2018, Schaefer unexpectedly narrowly defeated Anderson, who had spent over $300,000 to Schaefer's $25,000. This was attributed to the Democratic wave and Anderson being reprimanded for his comments to a female lobbyist.

In 2023, Schaefer was briefly a Democratic candidate for California's 47th congressional district in the following year's election, after initially misfiling for office in the 45th district, but in February 2024, he filed to switch to the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada.

LMAO. Oddballs like these make the day of elections nerds.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The only person I know of (in America) that has a longer electoral career than Schaefer is Fred Risser, former Wisconsin state legislator from 1957-2021. Risser was also the last serving WW2 vet politician

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Just got polled by UC Berkeley IGS; looks like they’ll have one last poll out before the primary next week.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Schiff face Porter or Garvey?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Will Schiff face Porter or Garvey?

Heart wants to say Porter, but I think Garvey has the advantage. At least in polls, he’s managed to consolidate enough of the Republican side.

I’d say 60% chance of Garvey, 40% chance of Porter.

[Holmes]

Honestly, Republicans might choose Garvey when pollsters name him, but when faced with a ballot of like 30 candidates, will they really seek him out en masse to vote for him? That will make the difference.

[Open Source Intelligence]

If Republicans really wanted to screw Democrats, they'd vote for Porter to guarantee a D vs. D matchup.

Schiff is running ads to boost Garvey and Porter is running ads to boost Early. For Top Two proponents, is this really how you think it was supposed to operate?

[Rhenna]

If Republicans really wanted to screw Democrats, they'd vote for Porter to guarantee a D vs. D matchup.

Schiff is running ads to boost Garvey and Porter is running ads to boost Early. For Top Two proponents, is this really how you think it was supposed to operate?

Not defending the top two system, but this happens in other states that aren't top two, see MO-Sen 2012.

[Greedo punched first]

Who wins if it's Schiff vs Porter?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1763958273697616036

Going to be honest this ad is funny.

[Roll Roons]

I don't think the ad makers quite realized that the official office (which he's telling people to call) and campaign are totally separate entities. The intern/low-level staffer who answers the phone won't be allowed to discuss campaign matters because of ethics rules.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1763986165047451820

2.6 million votes in already. Vote is overwhelmingly 50+ and white

Seems likely to help Garvey and Schiff 

[Roll Roons]

Assuming a Schiff vs. Garvey general, could this turn out to be the reverse of KY 2020 where Republican small donors pour a ton of money into a race that never had a chance of succeeding because they hate the Democrat so much?

[Minnesota Mike]

So I saw Steve Garvey trending on Twitter and had to check out why. Turns out because of the recent poll that had Garvey leading the primary a not so small segment of the MAGA faithful are excited that they may be getting a new Republican senator from California. I get we are the oddballs for following this stuff so closely but you really don't need to be political expert to know there is more to the story. What is humorous to me is the number of big MAGA Twitter accounts with hundreds of thousands of followers who are pushing the "Garvey is winning" narrative. I guess it shouldn't surprise me how gullible people can be but it still does sometimes. I guess the MAGA masses will buy anything.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

So I saw Steve Garvey trending on Twitter and had to check out why. Turns out because of the recent poll that had Garvey leading the primary a not so small segment of the MAGA faithful are excited that they may be getting a new Republican senator from California. I get we are the oddballs for following this stuff so closely but you really don't need to be political expert to know there is more to the story. What is humorous to me is the number of big MAGA Twitter accounts with hundreds of thousands of followers who are pushing the "Garvey is winning" narrative. I guess it shouldn't surprise me how gullible people can be but it still does sometimes. I guess the MAGA masses will buy anything.

Oh, they're definitely going to claim it was fraud when Schiff wins in November. After all, how could anyone in CA vote Democrat now with how much of a disaster the state has been?

[Ferguson97]

Only 17% reporting, but it's pretty clear that Schiff and Garvey will advance.

7% is just embarrassing for Lee. She better hope she can at least get to double digits before the night is over.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Schiff is even winning Alameda County. Yeesh.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

That was anticlimactic

[Redban]

Garvey will advance. NBC News calls it

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/california-senate-results?amp=1

[politicallefty]

I'm disappointed it won't be Porter, but a D v. R race in California will keep resources to where they really need to go.

[Roll Roons]

I'm just so happy Katie Porter will be out. She just seems like an all-around terrible person.

[MargieCat]

This thread should be renamed, "Schiff Happens"

[John Dule]

What an embarrassment. Maybe someday my state will stop rewarding the Pelosi/Newsom political machine for its corruption and treachery, but not anytime soon.

[Ferguson97]

What an embarrassment. Maybe someday my state will stop rewarding the Pelosi/Newsom political machine for its corruption and treachery, but not anytime soon.

Who did you vote for today?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

Why do you think that all the "real" California politics understanders are saying this? Is it because they're stupid?

I don't know, the evidence strongly leans one way here.