California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Holmes]

a lot of black activists don't trust Katie Porter

Feels like you pulled this one out of your ass, bronz.

[Holmes]

The California Democratic Party has a weak bench.

It doesn’t, and at least it can win elections.

[Holmes]

Honestly, I like Schiff and have nothing against him, but if I was in CA this would probably be between Porter and Lee for me.

It’s between Porter and Lee for me, and I’m leaning towards Lee because she’s from the Bay Area.

[Holmes]

Schiff has the advantage now

No, actually. Assuming he makes it to the general, he has no base. Republicans won't vote for him and Porter and Lee already have the left of center vote locked up.

[Holmes]

This is one of the main reasons I don't want Lee. She will be 78 by the time her Senate term starts. Why go for Lee and risk situations like this when you have a younger alternative who will vote the same as Lee 99%+ of the time ?

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1645428932835942402

Because I want a proven left-wing voice from the Bay Area.

[Holmes]

Um, I just want at least one of my senators to be from where I actually live. It’s not that deep. In a state of nearly 40 million that’s geographically expansive, it matters.

[Holmes]

Will Newsom need to appoint a replacement even though Feinstein isn't resigning?

Newsom should appoint someone so that California can have three senators (two functioning).

[Holmes]

Really, Newsom shouldn't have backed himself into the corner of saying he'd only appoint an African-American woman.

The best appointment, really is Kounalakis, because even if she did run, she'd be no threat in a primary, and she probably won't run because she wants to be Governor more.

Kounalakis seems more likely to launch a bid for governor in 2026 when her second term as number two is coming to a close. So basically following Newsom's footsteps. I think she has a decent shot making it into the general election.

Nah, she probably doesn't make the general. If she does, she loses. More high profile Dems will run.

[Holmes]

I have the perfect answer
Appoint Lee to the seat, and in return split off California's ten southern counties and admit them to the union as a new 51st state of South California, leaving Schiff and Porter to those new senate seats instead.

I would assume Padilla would be one of the senators of this new state.

[Holmes]

If his goal is a placeholder, I don't see how it could be anyone besides Weber.

I have also seen the name of Bay Area Transit Board member Lateefah Simon mentioned as a possibility. Simon is currently the frontrunner for the CA-12 House seat held by Barbara Lee. It would be weird to have a sitting senator running for a house seat but there is nothing stopping her from from being a senate placeholder while continuing to run for the house. 

Very weird to see someone spell out Bay Area Regional Transit instead of just saying BART.

[Holmes]

Huh that’s cool:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1708671789268947447

An endorsement from Yashar Ali isn’t the biggest vote of confidence.

[Holmes]

She made the right decision. I don't know about running against Kounalakis because she's been the heir apparent for years. She should at least move back to CA after her term expires lol

I wouldn’t say Kounalakis is an heir apparent in the least.

[Holmes]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

[Holmes]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

In California?  Many people care quite a bit lol

I would say we care more about the issues but California voters are pretty brain dead sometimes.

[Holmes]

I decided to fill in the bubble for Porter. Was hoping Lee's campaign would go somewhere but it didn't. Schiff's running a garbage campaign and I don't want a "hey guys Trump hates me" Senator. I convinced the mother- and siblings-in-law to vote for Porter too.

[Holmes]

What are people talking about?
The results still don't come
Have they been confused by olawakandi?

We got a bunch of non-Californians calling the race nice days (and eight months) early for the generic one.

[Holmes]

Honestly, Republicans might choose Garvey when pollsters name him, but when faced with a ballot of like 30 candidates, will they really seek him out en masse to vote for him? That will make the difference.

[Holmes]

Very sad state of affairs for the CA GOP when a "good night" for them is just advancing to the general election.

[Holmes]

Very sad state of affairs for the CA GOP when a "good night" for them is just advancing to the general election.

Yup, though this is the first senate election for a GOP candidate to advance to the senate election in November since adoption of the jungle primary after 2012.

2022 was D vs R.

[Holmes]

I really don't understand the vitriol towards Schiff. I preferred Porter, but I have no doubt that Schiff will vote virtually the same way on every single major bill that she would have. All of the 3 major Democratic candidates would've made great Senators.

If they had to pick a cringe resist lib, it should've been Ted Lieu. As least he brings some diversity...I'm sorry but white men should not be Senators from California.

Well, no lol. But every Schiff ad I got was "HI I'm Adam Schiff, and Trump hates me." Which is a fine strategy in a primary in a Democratic state. But I just, you know, care about actual things. Real things.

[Holmes]

A really sad ending to Barbara Lee's political career. She seemed to have no strategy beyond jumping in and hoping a vacancy would pop up and assumed she would get it by acting entitled to the position. It created an messy and disorganized campaign, and when the vacancy did pop up, her entitled insane troll logic position that Newsom must appoint her because it would be disrespectful to black women to let the primary play out democratically because posed zero chance of convincing Newsom, but did generate her a lot of free negative press by making her sound delusional and actively hostile to elections as a concept. It was also bizarrely disrespectful to Laphonza Butler, a normal, uncontroversial Democrat and woman of color, for no reason, which is not a good look. She never seemed to have a Plan B for when her plan to humiliate herself in exchange for nothing didn't amount to anything, and all her presence in the race did was split the progressive vote and guarantee the more moderate candidate the Senate seat for the next 30 years. Embarrassing stuff, especially from someone whose career presented plenty to admire up until this past year

I think her thought process was she was probably going to retire anyway because she's old but figured one last campaign would be fun and if she won hey that's great, but yeah it was pretty selfish and her argument that Newsom was being disrespectful to black women by...appointing a black woman to the Senate seat was pure cringe.

She absolutely had a strong resume to be a good candidate, and I really wanted to vote for her, but yes, her campaign had no real message. No (good) reason for running. Even Schiff's campaign had a message, even though it wad a lame one. I felt good about my choice to vote for Porter in the end.

[Holmes]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

I hate to be super simplistic but no. This is California. Both nominees are generic as hell. And the general will have presidential turnout.

[Holmes]

I've had a few people even ask me why there were two Senate races with the same people on the ballot, and they're consistent voters. The general will have more "low info" voters compared to last night's primary that I expect will vote for the same person in both match-ups, so I don't expect much of a discrepancy in the results for the special and the full term.

[Holmes]

The fact that they only had 47% counted on election night is a complete joke. 47% on a test is a failing grade. There’s no excuse for this at all, and it has nothing to do with partisanship or how later counted ballots might lean.

Frankly, I would have the military take over this state because they’ve proven that they can’t be trusted and don’t want to change.

Can you please be serious.