California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[wbrocks67]

I honestly have no dog in this fight, but as an outsider who had no opinion on Lee before all of this, her campaign has been an absolute mess.

[President Johnson]

I honestly have no dog in this fight, but as an outsider who had no opinion on Lee before all of this, her campaign has been an absolute mess.

Same here. I wonder whether she's even coming in third in the June primary at this point. Assuming it's still Schiff and Porter who are out in front. Butler entering the pack would turn things upside down.

[Minnesota Mike]

I honestly have no dog in this fight, but as an outsider who had no opinion on Lee before all of this, her campaign has been an absolute mess.

Same here. I wonder whether she's even coming in third in the June primary at this point. Assuming it's still Schiff and Porter who are out in front. Butler entering the pack would turn things upside down.

In presidential years the CA primary is in March (Super Tuesday).

[Greedo punched first]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

No because Lee, Early are getting 6 and so will Butler she never responded to any attacks on her, Porter and Schiff primary


The polls would look something like this

16 porter
13 Schiff
6 Lee
6 Early
3 Butler

This isn't a poll


The NAACP is concerned with Allred, Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks just like they focused on Ryan, Beasley and Barnes, but FL is always a wildcard and Rev Barber gives his donation to Act blue, what has Butler said to defend herself from right-wing attacks zilch


If Cardin tries to run for reelection he would lose to Alsobrooks


That's why I make 538 maps Poverty hit every state not just 303, users just copy one another and don't make their own maps

[patzer]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

No because Lee, Early are getting 6 and so will Butler she never responded to any attacks on her, Porter and Schiff primary


The polls would look something like this

16 porter
13 Schiff
6 Lee
6 Early
3 Butler

This isn't a poll


The NAACP is concerned with Allred, Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks just like they focused on Ryan, Beasley and Barnes, but FL is always a wildcard and Rev Barber gives his donation to Act blue, what has Butler said to defend herself from right-wing attacks zilch


If Cardin tries to run for reelection he would lose to Alsobrooks


That's why I make 538 maps Poverty hit every state not just 303, users just copy one another and don't make their own maps

Is there literally any time in history that an incumbent senator has polled at 3% in the primary? I don't think so and I'm not sure what makes you think Butler is such a uniquely bad senator that it will happen now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

No because Lee, Early are getting 6 and so will Butler she never responded to any attacks on her, Porter and Schiff primary


The polls would look something like this

16 porter
13 Schiff
6 Lee
6 Early
3 Butler

This isn't a poll


The NAACP is concerned with Allred, Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks just like they focused on Ryan, Beasley and Barnes, but FL is always a wildcard and Rev Barber gives his donation to Act blue, what has Butler said to defend herself from right-wing attacks zilch


If Cardin tries to run for reelection he would lose to Alsobrooks


That's why I make 538 maps Poverty hit every state not just 303, users just copy one another and don't make their own maps

Is there literally any time in history that an incumbent senator has polled at 3% in the primary? I don't think so and I'm not sure what makes you think Butler is such a uniquely bad senator that it will happen now.

The Palestinians uprising will hurt Lee and Butler and help Porter but there are 3 women running and Porter is the younger version of Feinstein

White, Latina women that was gonna vote for Schiff are now gonna vote for Porter

Powell can win too she looks like Deegan and PORTER

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1711715662622503285?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[Roll Roons]

It’s actually probably better for Dems that Garvey is running. Assuming he makes the top two, which is not hard to do given that he’s the only credible Republican, it allows the top Democrat to lock up in the race in March rather than waste energy and money on a bloody intra-party battle for another 8 months.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Butler runs, a Republican could make it past the primary.

I dunno, they don't seem to have anyone standing out so far. It's more likely because the other Dems drop out. At least if polls show Butler taking a lead. Not sure this is going to happen though.

[Greedo punched first]

What if Steve Garvey gets the CAGOP endorsement?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/paulmitche11/status/1711165557116928053

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

Minorities are gonna back Porter, away from Lee or Butler it's still a runoff and it's a Porter v Schiff primary. No GOP opponent in GE Porter wins easily

[Oryxslayer]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

In theory, this checks out.

In practice,  he right now is just another GOP name next to other GOP names.  The absurdly hypothetical McCarthy run wouldn't have this issue cause people in an electorate of millions already know him. People barely remember Garvey at best. Any Republican needs money or exposure to actually unite the GOP base. The former is probably not going to come in the numbers necessary,  given the present Democratic warchests, ad reservations, and how much campaign time remains. But the later could, especially via FOX, talk radio, and the far-right echo chamber.  That's how Larry Elder kept his lead though he had national backing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

In theory, this checks out.

In practice,  he right now is just another GOP name next to other GOP names.  The absurdly hypothetical McCarthy run wouldn't have this issue cause people in an electorate of millions already know him. People barely remember Garvey at best. Any Republican needs money or exposure to actually unite the GOP base. The former is probably not going to come in the numbers necessary,  given the present Democratic warchests, ad reservations, and how much campaign time remains. But the later could, especially via FOX, talk radio, and the far-right echo chamber.  That's how Larry Elder kept his lead though he had national backing.

You really think the sympathy vote isn't gonna sway minorities against Schiff to Porter she is now tied 19 with Schiff, Butler didn't bother to attend the forum she missed an opportunity and her support is going to PORTER

Garvey doesn't do anything for Schiff except pushed shift to a runoff with Porter I posted the poll for a reason it had Porter gaining not Schiff, stop believing what other users say

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think Garvey getting in helps Schiff. He has been leading the primary but losing the general to Porter.

Garvey has the best chance of uniting the GOP to get to the general. Chance of GOP victory is of course nill.

In theory, this checks out.

In practice,  he right now is just another GOP name next to other GOP names.  The absurdly hypothetical McCarthy run wouldn't have this issue cause people in an electorate of millions already know him. People barely remember Garvey at best. Any Republican needs money or exposure to actually unite the GOP base. The former is probably not going to come in the numbers necessary,  given the present Democratic warchests, ad reservations, and how much campaign time remains. But the later could, especially via FOX, talk radio, and the far-right echo chamber.  That's how Larry Elder kept his lead though he had national backing.

Overall I get your point. But I think you are underestimating some factors.
1. The other GOP figures running are complete no names- none even have a wikipedia page. The most prominent are provably Bradley who got 3.4% statewide in the 2022 senate election and Erick Early who barley advanced to the general in 2020 congressional race against Adam Schiff and then got crushed by 40+ points.

2. If Schiff continues his lead I would expect a return of the 2022 playbook. Some ads saying "Garvey is too conservative for CA etc." 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff isn't leading the last poll had him tied

[Хahar 🤔]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

Why do you think that all the "real" California politics understanders are saying this? Is it because they're stupid?

[Greedo punched first]

Remember that if Lee has a good chance of winning, Butler probably wouldn't be a Senator today.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Lot of garbage in this thread.

[patzer]

Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

[brucejoel99]

Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

The CADEM Endorsing Convention is in 5 weeks. There's just no chance Senator Butler gets the infrastructure for a successful campaign built up. She has (appointed) incumbency, but Porter has a war chest, Lee has loads of endorsements, & Schiff has both.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1712538227209547914

[henster]

Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

Or laying the groundwork for Governor? She has a much better chance in 2026 after a good tenure as caretaker where she boosts her name ID. The Gov field for 2026 is pretty wide open right now with no obvious frontrunner.