California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Minnesota Mike]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

[Minnesota Mike]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

The progressive caucus is not just a handful of activists we have thousands of delegates elected to the California Democratic party and have major pull and influence when it comes to who the party endorses. If one of the candidates decided to stay in after the progressive caucus has decided who to coalesce around that candidate would lose all support from the caucus's members and their campaigns grassroots and institutional support would dry up which would be pretty bad for said candidate who would also likely be on shaky ground in the first place if the caucus had decided to coalse around someone else.

But does the Party endorsement matter in California (honest question)?  In my experience party endorsements are nice but really don't have  much of an effect in most states.

[Minnesota Mike]

For the record I don't have a dog in this fight, any of the major Dem candidates would be fine IMO. I just hope it is not a D vs D general so Democratic donors don't light $100+ mill on fire in the general in race where the candidate differences are miniscule.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think Lee would make a good one, two term senator.

Two terms would make her 90 at the end of the 2nd term. After seeing Sen Feinstein's decline do Californians really want a nonagenarian Senator? Honestly if I lived in California Lee's current age would be a strike against her for me in the 2024 election.

[Minnesota Mike]

Barbara Lee will be younger in 2030 than Joe Biden will be in 2028. I’d better hear all of you who are complaining calling for his replacement on the ticket as well…

And in 2020 Biden's age was a factor for many Democrats in the primary, including myself. Age is not the only factor though and the way things worked out he was the best choice IMO. Personally my #1 priority in the 2020 was to have anybody but Bernie Sanders as the nominee, by the time I voted on Super Tuesday Joe Biden was the clear choice to achieve that.

As for 2024 a primary challenge to a sitting President is electoral suicide so it's Biden or bust if he runs (extremely likely).

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1627994448239136770

[Minnesota Mike]

Democrats of the Elizabeth Warren school of thought are the worst. Not only are they pretending to be progressives, they are TERRIBLY politically and come off as extremely unappealing to average voters.

No offense but how much does a 17 year old from Australia know about what appeals to the average American voter?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1644036736698183714

This is going to be spendy race.

[Minnesota Mike]

There is clearly a coordinated effort to get Feinstein to resign. First a half dozen media outlets run the same basic story with the anonymous Hill Insiders worried she won't be able to return and now a couple members of Congress saying openly what I am sure most of them are thinking.  It's to bad she didn't come to the realization that can no longer do the job by herself but now it's clear the powers that be are trying to push her out. My guess she resigns within a week.

[Minnesota Mike]

At the state convention this weekend Porter had almost no support I counted litterally 3 volunteers the entire weekend. Lee and Schiff had several competing events and Lees had more people slightly in each one. This highlights the major problem for Porter. She has no institutional support. All the progressive party officials are behind Lee as well as most of the African American leadership. And Schiff pretty much has all the establishment and moderate support behind him. I talked with one of Porters volunteers at the convention and his argument for Porter was pretty weak and rooted in ageism about Lee, he kept implying she was only capable of serving one term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but does institutional support really matter that much in California? In a state that big wouldn't money/name recognition (often same thing) matter more and doesn't Porter have both?

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah that's pretty much the case. Porter is leading right now due to name rec but she doesn't have a machine that will bring people out to vote for her knock doors make phone calls etc. Porters support is soft rn and from low info voters who are less likely to turnout or spread the word and encourage others to vote for her. Lee will have plenty of grassroots support and her support will be more solid and more likely to be mainted and expanded. Essentially Lee has more room to grow and larger engine to keep her in the race and her fundraising will be more reliable since she has more organizations and elected officials backing her and you need a lot of money and a consistent stream of if to compete in a state as big as Cali

But that's the thing, Porter has a huge online fundraising network, she really does not need to worry about local officials throwing her a $1,000 a plate fundraisers. Same with Schiff.  Honestly the reason I think Lee is likely to finish behind Schiff and Porter in the primary is I don't think she can fundraise with them.

[Minnesota Mike]

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

[Minnesota Mike]

 Former Los Angeles Dodgers icon Steve Garvey is considering running for the open U.S. Senate seat in California as a Republican, ...

(Paywalled)

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-06-01/former-los-angeles-dodger-steve-garvey-senate-feinstein-porter-schiff-lee-early

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/CA/2024/

Cash on hand as of end of Q2.

Schiff (D)- $29.8 mil.
Porter (D)- $10.4 mil.
Lee (D)- $1.4 mil.
Early (R)- 80K
A bunch of others- next to nothing.

Schiff has more COH than any of the presidential candidates (at least in their main accounts), Lee is struggling to keep up with the top 2 and the Republicans are not even showing up.

[Minnesota Mike]

Has Schiff more access to big donors through Pelosi's network or generally more grassroots support?

This quarter Schiff raised $3.8 mil in itemized contributions (>$200) and $4.4 mill in unitemized contributions (<$200) so more from small donors.

[Minnesota Mike]

Senator Feinstein's daughter has power of attorney over her personal affairs.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/03/us/feinstein-husband-estate-family-fortune.html

Nothing wrong with someone taking over the personal affairs of someone who can no longer handle them themselves, I did it for my mother, but should somebody who can not be trusted to control their own life really be a US Senator?

[Minnesota Mike]

This news isn't only sad for Feinstein and her family, it's sad because it means Biden won't be able to confirm any more judges. There's no way the GOP will let Democrats replace her on the Judiciary Committee. Man, I hate this timeline.

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1707784508253073422

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1707842387391730105

[Minnesota Mike]

If his goal is a placeholder, I don't see how it could be anyone besides Weber.

I have also seen the name of Bay Area Transit Board member Lateefah Simon mentioned as a possibility. Simon is currently the frontrunner for the CA-12 House seat held by Barbara Lee. It would be weird to have a sitting senator running for a house seat but there is nothing stopping her from from being a senate placeholder while continuing to run for the house. 

[Minnesota Mike]

If it is Lee, I wonder if Schiff or Porter drop out.

With Dave Min having legal troubles from his DUI, and no real frontrunner down there, maybe Porter suspends her campaign, endorses Lee, and runs for re-election in her swing district.

Schiff could do the same or continue to run against Lee.

It's possible that they turn their attention to 2026 statewide elections, like the open Governors mansion or AG (should Bonta decide to run for Governor).

Why would they? IMHO Shiff & Porter are still likely to finish 1/2 in the primary even against Senator Lee.

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, I don't know what Porter's path would be - she has the fewest endorsements and least institutional support of the three - but Lee getting the seat this way would be such an unprecedented tactic that I wouldn't be shocked to see her be greeted by dozens of in-unison endorsements of Schiff for the election.

Same path as it has always been. I just don't see an appointed senator consolidating support at this point of the race.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting factoid, with there being two elections for all practical purposes fundraising limits will double. A donor can give their preferred candidate the max for both the Special and the General. More money for a campaign that will already be expensive.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1708671278696280569

[Minnesota Mike]

According to Wikipedia (I know) she has close ties with Kamala Harris having a role on her 2020 presidential campaign. She also has strong union ties.  All I know of her is what I have read in the last 5 minutes but at first blush she sounds like a good pick.

[Minnesota Mike]

This is a virtually impossible pick for basically any Democrat - Lee included - to criticize.

Newsom running circles around his critics here.

You know sometimes politicians who have been elected to major offices know more than anonymous message board posters.