California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As soon as Lee loses and id Porter makes the runoff the blk voters like myself are going to Porter not Schiff that's why Porter has a chance in the GE if she beats Garvey for 2nd

If Garvey makes the runoff it's a fine deal Schiff is the next Senator

[Steve from Lambeth]

I hate electoral-vote.com's long-standing pet theory that Republicans will flock to Adam Schiff in a Schiff-Porter general because he is more moderate. Porter has always been an inconvenience for the GOP, nothing more, and a win for her may yet clear the path for them to reclaim one of their sought-after Orange County House seats. Schiff is possibly the Republican Party's least favourite moderate House Democrat and his competition in 2022 was a Democratic drag queen called Maebe A. Girl who never looked like winning.

Would a Republican rather have six years of a flipchart-wielding progressive who has largely avoided controversy for herself, or six years of the guy who led the efforts to impeach a Republican President (who also happens to be on the Presidential ballot that cycle)?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I hate electoral-vote.com's long-standing pet theory that Republicans will flock to Adam Schiff in a Schiff-Porter general because he is more moderate. Porter has always been an inconvenience for the GOP, nothing more, and a win for her may yet clear the path for them to reclaim one of their sought-after Orange County House seats. Schiff is possibly the Republican Party's least favourite moderate House Democrat and his competition in 2022 was a Democratic drag queen called Maebe A. Girl who never looked like winning.

Would a Republican rather have six years of a flipchart-wielding progressive who has largely avoided controversy for herself, or six years of the guy who led the efforts to impeach a Republican President (who also happens to be on the Presidential ballot that cycle)?

Yeah, to me, a Schiff-Porter runoff would very much be shades of 2018 with Feinstein-de Leon. Most Republicans will probably not vote and those that do will probably go for Porter over Schiff precisely because of what you said.

Quoting myself from another thread:

To reiterate what others have said, the Republicans that did vote, did vote for de Leon, while a significant number didn’t vote in that race. Total votes for the Senate race were about 1.3 million lower than the concurrent gubernatorial election that was Dem vs Rep.

I’ve added a graph that shows the correlation between the difference in the number of votes cast between gubernatorial and senatorial races (undervote) compared to the votes received by the Republican (Cox) in the gubernatorial election by county. The quickest (and dirtiest) measure of correlation, R-squared, is extremely high as you can see.



In the event of a Porter-Schiff race, I’m guessing there will be broadly similar patterns among Republican voters (those that do vote will go Porter). I’m thinking that Porter could pull it off, but that of course remains to be seen.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The x-factor is that Porter will have to campaign for several months by actively running to Schiff's left, so that will likely blunt any Republican support she gets. But I'm also guessing Schiff will open up a big lead against Porter among Dems, so the Republican vote will likely be irrelevant.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The x-factor is that Porter will have to campaign for several months by actively running to Schiff's left, so that will likely blunt any Republican support she gets. But I'm also guessing Schiff will open up a big lead against Porter among Dems, so the Republican vote will likely be irrelevant.

That’s fair and I think another factor is that Porter won’t be seen to be as quixotic of a candidate as de Leon was. I don’t doubt that he really wanted the job, but Feinstein was such an entrenched incumbent that running against her was uhh… difficult and almost seemed like he was a protest candidate. The fact that it’s an open seat could go either way for Porter. She’ll be seen as a serious candidate with a serious chance at winning, which could help on the left, and hurt on the right (meaning more undervotes since I agree with the idea that Republicans are more prone to hate Schiff, but still might not want to support another Dem).

[Oryxslayer]

Something else on the Republican vote is if we get Schiff vs Porter, is geographic familiarity. A good chunk of them are sub or ex-urbanites to the South and east of Los Angeles City. When you have to choose between two bad options, familiarity and the idea that someone is from or "knows our community" can often be a decider. I know it's going to be the case with some of the Republicans in my extended OC family, cause they have said as much.  

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff ads are crushing the airwaves yeah he is going to be the next Sen not Porter Garvey came in and took the runoff away from Porter

[Holmes]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

He was an impeachment manager and Rs blocked the Jt Commission lead by McCarthy

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

In California?  Many people care quite a bit lol

[Open Source Intelligence]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

All she has to do is get top 2 and then she runs in November.

I wonder how many Democrats would really rather Garvey gets 2nd in the primary, that way they don't have a Democrat-vs-Democrat U.S. Senate race that will be pulling a lot of resources away from R vs. D contests.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Adam Schiff is clearly the next S the DS need his fundraising just like Trone has fundraising ability

[Holmes]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

In California?  Many people care quite a bit lol

I would say we care more about the issues but California voters are pretty brain dead sometimes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Schiff just running crap ads all "I stood up to Trump" girl who cares talk about the issues

In California?  Many people care quite a bit lol

I would say we care more about the issues but California voters are pretty brain dead sometimes.

"Resistance" wine moms just care that he yelled Russia and got censured.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The state plays no role in which party will lead the Senate next year. And yet, some Democratic House campaigns in California have already seen the Senate race start to siphon money and attention away from swing-seats.

....

California alone has seven GOP House incumbents that Democrats have targeted. The campaign accounts of Schiff and his closest Democratic opponent, fellow Rep. Katie Porter, could transform those contests.

Instead, Schiff and Porter are engaged in an expensive, bruising primary. The tens of millions they’ve raised have largely been spent against each other, not Republicans.

One person working for a Democrat in a swing seat said multiple donors have declined to host fundraisers for that campaign because they had already recently held events for Schiff’s bid. Such fundraisers can bring in tens of thousands of dollars in one night.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/22/adam-schiff-katie-porter-campaign-funding-00136890

Just more of a reason to vote for Lee.

[Minnesota Mike]

Some Q4 Fundraising numbers for CA-SEN:

Schiff: Receipts $6.3 mill, spent $3.4 mill, COH $34.9 mill
Porter: Receipts $3.0 mill, spent $1.8 mill, COH $13.2 mill
Lee: Receipts $1.1 mill, spent $1.6 mill, COH $815K
Garvey: Receipts $611K, spent $303K, COH $308K

Money is not everything but it does matter. Hard to see how Lee makes up ground when she is going to be outspent at least 10-1. Garvey at least has the advantage of being the biggest named Republican in the field. Maybe Schiff and Porter nuke each other but I think they will wait until the general to do that that is if Porter makes it.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1753072507823984940?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

Schiff cynically (and smartly) trying to pick his GE opponent.   

[President Johnson]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

[Oryxslayer]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

Nothing. People saw her as the favorite cause she would win round 2 in November VS Schiff through a Frankenstein coalition of assorted interests. I don't think we ever got a poll of her coming on top in Round 1. And that still could be the case if she makes it to round 2, she has the money to not be totally swamped by Schiff, and the reasons voters would favor her for their own reasons in a 1 v 1 are all still there.

What has changed is not on her. GOP voters can vote in the Blanket primary like anyone else and they now have a candidate with enough of a presence to congregate their votes. They also now have the likely voter screen, and pollsters expect a electorate with more GOP voters than usual - at least comparing normal primary turnout to a normal GE electorate. Which is sensible given the state of the two Presidential primaries, but it may end up a overcorrection given how much energy is focused on getting out Dem voters by the Senate primary campaigns, and how many Dem voters are gonna get ballots mailed to them without any effort on their part.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

"Normie progs" tend to have a hard time in large primaries, because they get boxed out by both the mainstream fave (Schiff, Biden) and the true believer of the left (Bernie, Lee).

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

Nothing. People saw her as the favorite cause she would win round 2 in November VS Schiff through a Frankenstein coalition of assorted interests. I don't think we ever got a poll of her coming on top in Round 1. And that still could be the case if she makes it to round 2, she has the money to not be totally swamped by Schiff, and the reasons voters would favor her for their own reasons in a 1 v 1 are all still there.

What has changed is not on her. GOP voters can vote in the Blanket primary like anyone else and they now have a candidate with enough of a presence to congregate their votes. They also now have the likely voter screen, and pollsters expect a electorate with more GOP voters than usual - at least comparing normal primary turnout to a normal GE electorate. Which is sensible given the state of the two Presidential primaries, but it may end up a overcorrection given how much energy is focused on getting out Dem voters by the Senate primary campaigns, and how many Dem voters are gonna get ballots mailed to them without any effort on their part.

That’s actually a really good point. Sure, it is the primary for all of the races (unlike I want to say 2008 when there were two primaries), but the big race on everyone’s mind will be the senate races. While Schiff might be trying to pick his opponent as others have noted, it would be hard to do if the Republicans vote how they’ve been voting in contests like this: a lot of random people getting a percent or two here and there. Eric Early and James Bradley, two Republican candidates for other statewide offices of late, are also on the ballot, which could draw away from Garvey. With three mainstream Dems on the ballot, I suspect that random Democrats will be taking less than random Republicans.

Ultimately, due to the dearth of real candidates, polling the CAGOP side of things is difficult.