Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't live in Georgia. but from what I've been reading and hearing about, it seems like Democrats are actually the more united party going into these runoffs. Really the only Democrats who aren't on board with Ossoff and Warnock seem to be those few fringe moderate voters who voted for Biden out of spite for Trump, and even then, many are splitting their ballot Warnock-Perdue. Outside that though, everyone from neoliberals to BernieBros seem to be united in their support for voting for Warnock and Ossoff.

While Republicans aren't in a terrible place in these races, it does seem like there's a bit of disunity within the party, mainly almost on the loyalty test of how loyal Perdue and Loeffler are willing to be to Trump. There seems to be a small yet loud presents of Trump voters who think Trump should've won who threaten to not vote in the runoffs unless Perdue and Loeffler are more aggressive in protesting the results, particularly those that are very "Trumpy". It's yet to see how many Republicans will actually boycott the runoffs; we'll truly never know, but it still creates tension within the party regardless.

Would be curious to see if anyone who's actually from GA right now can confirm or deny this

I still personally think Perdue and Loeffler are very very very slight favorites, but this does seem to be a potential downfall for them, and I do see a small window for a lopsided D result if a combination of Trump not directly being on the ballot and lack of trust of the establishment causes even just 5% of Republican voters to stay home who would've otherwise voted.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't live in Georgia. but from what I've been reading and hearing about, it seems like Democrats are actually the more united party going into these runoffs. Really the only Democrats who aren't on board with Ossoff and Warnock seem to be those few fringe moderate voters who voted for Biden out of spite for Trump, and even then, many are splitting their ballot Warnock-Perdue. Outside that though, everyone from neoliberals to BernieBros seem to be united in their support for voting for Warnock and Ossoff.

While Republicans aren't in a terrible place in these races, it does seem like there's a bit of disunity within the party, mainly almost on the loyalty test of how loyal Perdue and Loeffler are willing to be to Trump. There seems to be a small yet loud presents of Trump voters who think Trump should've won who threaten to not vote in the runoffs unless Perdue and Loeffler are more aggressive in protesting the results, particularly those that are very "Trumpy". It's yet to see how many Republicans will actually boycott the runoffs; we'll truly never know, but it still creates tension within the party regardless.

Would be curious to see if anyone who's actually from GA right now can confirm or deny this

I still personally think Perdue and Loeffler are very very very slight favorites, but this does seem to be a potential downfall for them, and I do see a small window for a lopsided D result if a combination of Trump not directly being on the ballot and lack of trust of the establishment causes even just 5% of Republican voters to stay home who would've otherwise voted.

Trump himself has endorsed Perdue and Loeffler and will continue to do rallies for them. I am not sure how voters who strongly support Trump would question Perdue and Loeffler's loyalty to Trump and wouldn't support these two candidates when they are being fully recommended by him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs should realize that they picked up seats and defeated most of our female candidates for House and Senate like Gideon, Bollier and GREENFIELD due to fact Pelosi didn't allow a vote on the 1.8T and now the Unemployment has expired due to fact /Leader Mccarthy objected to 2K stimulus on Xmas. These same D's will make a serious comeback in 2022

We have two strong male candidates that have raised 200M are gonna win a week from Tuesday in a VBM not Same day voting and Atl goes last and each race are a point from from each other


When Mcconnell conceded on 600 it may ways for both Perdue and Loeffler to get credit for Stimulus, since then Trump  created a nightmare scenario for both of the Rs in wanting a 2K, that's why Perdue and Loeffler can't expand their lead

[The Houstonian]

How many voters have died or will die between the general election and the runoffs, and how will their deaths influence the outcome of the runoffs?

The Rs should realize that they picked up seats and defeated most of our female candidates for House and Senate like Gideon, Bollier and GREENFIELD due to fact Pelosi didn't allow a vote on the 1.8T and now the Unemployment has expired due to fact /Leader Mccarthy objected to 2K stimulus on Xmas. These same D's will make a serious comeback in 2022

We have two strong male candidates that have raised 200M are gonna win a week from Tuesday in a VBM not Same day voting and Atl goes last and each race are a point from from each other


When Mcconnell conceded on 600 it may ways for both Perdue and Loeffler to get credit for Stimulus, since then Trump  created a nightmare scenario for both of the Rs in wanting a 2K, that's why Perdue and Loeffler can't expand their lead

Could someone translate this into English?

[MillennialModerate]

Trump not signing this bill or at least forcing a $2000 vote on the floor of the senate would’ve given Dems the only prayer they had. But alas it’s over

[roxas11]

Trump not signing this bill or at least forcing a $2000 vote on the floor of the senate would’ve given Dems the only prayer they had. But alas it’s over

We will have to agree to disgree
Trump making a fool of himself by pulling a stunt like this did not help him or the GOP at all

for a lot of voter that 600 dollar check will now come off feeling like a bitter disappointment after trump promised them he would fight to t get them a 2,000 dollar check..

[Alben Barkley]

Trump not signing this bill or at least forcing a $2000 vote on the floor of the senate would’ve given Dems the only prayer they had. But alas it’s over

Oh my god, we’re DEFINITELY winning these seats now!

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1343228374257459202?s=20

RIP

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1343228374257459202?s=20

RIP

Is that the Walmart data? They tend to be a bit iffy, but still interesting nonetheless. According to my stupid model, the e-day vote will end up being a larger share of the vote, even though currently the early vote seems to be more D than in the GE, which could be a sign Ds have an enthusiasm  edge. At the same time, that share is likely to be slightly less pro-R than it was in the GE based upon who the outstanding likely voters are. Again, nothing is finite since we don’t have any pure party registration data, but Democrats should feel good about the position they are in, though if they’re favored is a much harder question to answer

[brucejoel99]

Trump not signing this bill or at least forcing a $2000 vote on the floor of the senate would’ve given Dems the only prayer they had. But alas it’s over

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

F for MillienialModerate

If Joe Biden is the President Elect then I’m not getting an F

With that said.... Georgia. Well we will see

Is GA gonna count those remaining 48K ballots or

They aren’t nearly Democratic enough to make a difference at this point

Georgia margin down to 12,825.

These guys are slow at counting

They’re delaying the invevitable but if you just listened to me it wouldn’t be so difficult.

You mean like how you listened to literally all of Atlas when we gave you receipts over & over & over again as to how JKIII pales in comparison to (King) Markey? Or how you've been listening to us right now as to how, y'know, simple math re: GA ballots & the composition thereof works?

K.

Low blow. I can’t help the latte liberal crowd is short a few brain cells

Is Biden gonna win the peach state or nah?

Let me let you in on a little secret .... No

Let me let you in on a little secret .... the numbers don't agree with you. Like, at all.

Okay, we’ll see

So people were saying we would get more Georgia results at 11, is that true?

Here you go, charcuterie:

https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1324331884910923779

Prepare for an epic let down

How are we feeling about PA, GA, NV, and AZ?

PA: Awful now despite decent numbers cause well you know
GA: LOL... come on
NV: Shaky but not totally doom
AZ: Has always felt like it was slipping away

Does anyone feel the Secretary of State in Georgia holding a press conference means it’s locked up for Trump? I can’t imagine a Republican SoS making a big to do about ballots that put Biden over the top which as you all know I don’t think will happen but just an honest question

Wasserman said Biden would have to run the table with Georgia votes and he sounded extremely pessimistic.

Georgia SoS says only 25k votes left and Biden down 18k. This is the final time I’ll say it, Georgia is over.

Remember, MillennialModerate also said there was no way Biden could come back in WI, MI and PA.

I was very unsure about WI and MI but I never totally discounted Bidens chances in the way I do in PA or especially GA (and AZ for that matter)

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Don't think Biden's getting PA

Don’t say. You’ll be eaten alive like I did.

I’m in the minority but if I were betting I’d say Trump is likely to win this thing.

Biden falls short in Georgia by a hair
Biden falls short decently in NC
Biden lead slips away in AZ
Biden might hold on in NV but it’s not a sure thing
Bidens outstanding vote in PA has been GREATLY exaggerated

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

So....how is GA and PA looking for Biden?

Awful and fairly decent

Biden is going to win Pennsylvania and he has a 50/50 1/100 chance at Georgia

*Fixed

Georgia looking good!

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1324083501013020673

Let it go. It’ll be alright.

What I’m hoping for:

-Joe Biden wins the EC
-Peters maintains his senate seat
-Perdue is pushed below 50%

Is this too much to ask?

There is not a snowballs chance in hell that the republicans lose Georgia with the senate on the line. And that’s separate of my normal Georgia ranting. There is literally no chance. Turnout will be depressed for the casual voter. I’d beg for a chance to bet on it

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Even Nevada, Georgia and Arizona?

Percent Trump will win:

Georgia: 99%
Arizona: 90%
Nevada: 75%

Well guess its still a little interesting. Trump needs a flush of AZ/PA/GA to win. Doubt that happens but who knows.

GA is a lock, PA is definetly leaning in his direction. Arizona is razor thin but reasons for him to feel good

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

I repeat. There is ZERO path to the senate. Absolutely zero. Anyone who wants me to put my money where my mouth is, let me know. I’ll give 4 to 1 odds

So what are the odds in GA?

1%

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Brain cells. It’s been the most predictable of the none safe states since ... November of 2016. But alas

Why are you so hung up on this? Either way Georgia will be ridiculously slim. There was no actual REASON to think it was impossible after the left trends in 2016 and 2018. You just keep saying that for absolutely no reason. What a bizarre hill to die on, especially for someone who apparentlynlives nowhere near Georgia you seem awfully emotional about it.

Cause the sun belt fantasy aside from Arizona is nauseating. We hear this BS constantly about rapidly changing this and rapidly changing that. Yes in some ways but in other ways the rurals are becoming more and more and more entrenched. It gives Dems this false hope that’s unfounded. Never said there wasn’t a shot of it being close. The GOV race was razor thin when both parties had awful canidates - but to actually tip over into the Dem column was fools gold and anyone who had it on their map just ... idk. just needs to reasses how they analyze things politicallly

Biden has almost no chance of Georgia no matter how many times I get ignored or called a troll.

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Uhh are you bad at math

If Gideon and Cunningham loses the Senate is over

Trump will win NC, Biden narrowly favoured in GA.

Fools gold.

Such a weird hill to die on.

He and GoTfan have been clamoring for a Trump win, doesn't mean they support him but I don't understand the psychology behind it.

I would (LITERALLY) have given my right nut for a Dem trifecta. So clamoring is a ridiculous thing to say.

I just refuse to try and talk myself into something that I don’t believe is going to happen especially when that just means the heartbreak will even worse than it would have been if I just accepted it.

As for Georgia specifically - I just don’t get what people are seeing. The numbers for Dems are not there. They just aren’t

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Focus on the blue wall

Georgia is a pipe dream

Major vote drops to come in Fulton and DeKalb for GA.  Looks to be a big comeback for Biden.  The question is well it will be enough.

I’m going to say No.

Big surprise.

My answer was one of riveting suspense

Georgia looks like it will go Biden

In what works? Because the unreliable needle says so?

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

What's your thinking? You can quote me on this. Look at the margins and swings from 2016 coming out of Fulton, Dekalb, Gwinnett, Cobb. Even Cherokee and Fayette...

Called it

You called nothing. It’s NOT HAPPENING. You’ll see. Quote me. Write it down

Biden a narrow favourite in Georgia according to NYT Needle

LOL!!

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

You're right about one thing, you DO sound like a broken record. And it is very annoying for you to run around screaming things hysterically without even explaining it, just saying "PERIOD" as if you think that's some kind of logical argument.

I mean the numbers don’t add up it’s that simple. There’s not enough Dem vote outstanding

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

Give Georgia up. It’s been over since... welll for years

Texas likely Trump
Georgia likely a Trump
Florida officially Trump
NC ... tossup.

Yeah. Donald Trump is going to win re-election.

All you mocking doomers really really need to re-evaluate your sunshine views

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

In that fantasy land I’d cry tears of joy but .. if you think that’s happening you genuinely need a new hobby. I can see TX or NC happening if Biden pulls out some miracle. But GA and FLA are GONE.

On what planet is TX to the left of GA and FL? This sounds like a parody of Atlas doomers.

Don’t get me wrong I think Texas is still going GOP, NC I don’t know what to think.

But if I had to pick one of TX, GA, FLA - it would be Texas by a mile.

Florida is a GOP lock based on recent numbers and a Georgia is a lock because ... it’s been a lock for months but no one wants to believe it

Georgia is an 0 for 3 state for Dems

[Ancestral Republican]

Just want the suspense to be over.

[Pericles]

Just want the suspense to be over.

F**king 2020 waits so long to give us an election result that we needed months earlier, then it's a letdown but not even that actually brings closure. Just a few more days.

[Ancestral Republican]

Just want the suspense to be over.

F**king 2020 waits so long to give us an election result that we needed months earlier, then it's a letdown but not even that actually brings closure. Just a few more days.

Agreed.

I guess that's a week from tomorrow huh? Wild.

[WD]

Anytime MillennialModerate talks about Georgia, Perdue and Loeffler’s chances of losing go up by 1%.

[tagimaucia]

I’m just seeing those election week posts for the first time, and I have to say that MillennialModerate is one of the most skilled trolls I’ve ever seen. Masterful stuff.

[LostFellow]

I’m just seeing those election week posts for the first time, and I have to say that MillennialModerate is one of the most skilled trolls I’ve ever seen. Masterful stuff.

Eh, I disagree on two points. (1) If it is an attempt at masterful trolling, it's terrible since there isn't any wit or tact behind the repetitive statements. (2) It seems to me that MillennialModerate is literally just acting dense.

[It’s so Joever]

I actually do feel less “doomery” about this race, I think there are some possible factors towards our favor. Still, a pure tossup is a pure tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Thank god the race is relatively quick too, it's already only a week to go.

[MillennialModerate]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

[MillennialModerate]

Anytime MillennialModerate talks about Georgia, Perdue and Loeffler’s chances of losing go up by 1%.

So you’re saying there is a chance ........

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

[MillennialModerate]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

You think that’s going to hold up? Seriously?

Take my opinion out of the equation for a second

[forsythvoter]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

You think that’s going to hold up? Seriously?

Take my opinion out of the equation for a second

I actually do think the higher black turnout will probably hold up. Black turnout, contrary to perception, was not particularly high in the general, so there was room to grow there for the Dems, if they actually heavily target those voters with in-person contact, which from what I've observed, seems to be happening.

I'm not sure why you are so vested in a never D GA especially after what happened in November, but if you think Perdue / Loeffler are going to win, the data would suggest that it's crossover Biden voters that would most likely drive this, not low black or white Dem turnout.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anytime MillennialModerate talks about Georgia, Perdue and Loeffler’s chances of losing go up by 1%.

So you’re saying there is a chance ........

>50%

[tagimaucia]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

Do you really think there is just a simple, linear relationship between turnout and how Democratic the electorate will be? Like, it doesn’t matter at all which demographics or geographies are turning out more or less?  Do you realize that we have a lot of actual data on who has voted so far?

The thing about your post is that at this point, based on what we know so far, you have things exactly backwards about which side needs higher turnout.  The GOP candidates need turnout to be extremely *high* on Election Day to win (which absolutely could happen). With lots of votes already banked, the lower the total turnout ends up being at this point, the better for Ossoff and Warnock.