2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tekken_Guy]

The needle's been slowly moving towards Biden in FL and NC, although Trump is still favored. Down to a 65% chance Trump sweeps the needle states.

Hasn’t Trump already won FL?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The needle's been slowly moving towards Biden in FL and NC, although Trump is still favored. Down to a 65% chance Trump sweeps the needle states.

Hasn’t Trump already won FL?

I'm sure he meant GA, not FL.

[Vespucci]

The needle's been slowly moving towards Biden in FL and NC, although Trump is still favored. Down to a 65% chance Trump sweeps the needle states.

Hasn’t Trump already won FL?

Edited, meant GA. (Although NYT hasn't called FL).

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323847769338032128?s=20

I predicted a 52-48 GOP Senate and was laughed at.... you know me. Just a silly doomer

[BigSerg]

The needle's been slowly moving towards Biden in FL and NC, although Trump is still favored. Down to a 65% chance Trump sweeps the needle states.

Hasn’t Trump already won FL?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323839433490239494?s=20

[Pericles]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

[emailking]

That 538 tool assumes that polling was correct and that Trump isn't likely to win Wisconsin/Michigan. It obviously wasn't and Trump obviously has more than a 10% of winning one of them.

It does not assume polling is correct—otherwise I wouldn't have been able to set Florida red for instance, where Biden was up in polling.

I think the way to look at it is that it still uses the polling but doesn't assume it's correct. The point of the model is to estimate the chances the polls are incorrect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto stuck his kneck out in Biden winning TX, D's shouldn't rely on him ever again for any advice

TX House didn't flip blue

[lfromnj]

Here's something I need an explanation on: Biden's up 46% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, which is consistent with Hillary's margin there from 2016. That's a heavily Mexican-American county. Biden's margin in the Rio Grande Valley is nowhere near Hillary's margin in the Rio Grande Valley. Are we missing, like, an enormous number of outstanding, Democratic mail votes there, and a much higher turnout than 2016? Because I can't figure out why those margins would be so wildly different.

Hillary won that by 56?

However it seems once you reach El Paso the hispanic vote has still swung R but is no longer a disaster.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Hopefully I get it right again.

[wbrocks67]

Ohio's margin should have Democrats peeing their pants right now. It's almost exactly the same as 2016.

Most of the votes still out are from blue counties, so it's likely to tighten a smidge.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully I get it right again.

Hunter Biden is corrupted

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1323848818794942466?s=20

[MillennialModerate]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

[NOVA Green]

Deschutes County, OR is blue. *unzips, finally*

Marion County is now also +5% Biden as well!!!

[Roronoa D. Law]

What's going on in Macon.

[wbrocks67]

AZ dumped so much and now just stopped? Also nothing from NV either.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Here's something I need an explanation on: Biden's up 46% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, which is consistent with Hillary's margin there from 2016. That's a heavily Mexican-American county. Biden's margin in the Rio Grande Valley is nowhere near Hillary's margin in the Rio Grande Valley. Are we missing, like, an enormous number of outstanding, Democratic mail votes there, and a much higher turnout than 2016? Because I can't figure out why those margins would be so wildly different.

Hillary won that by 56?

However it seems once you reach El Paso the hispanic vote has still swung R but is no longer a disaster.

She won it 71-24, which is a 47% margin, which is not meaningfully different from what Biden is getting.

[politics_king]

Ohio's margin should have Democrats peeing their pants right now. It's almost exactly the same as 2016.

Almost all rurals reporting, urban counties (particularly Lucas) are still underreporting.

Fox called Ohio for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

You do realize that the majority of ATL is out right?

[͘]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1323848818794942466?s=20

Before Florida? lol.

[Pericles]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

Nope, Clinton only lost it by 5%, very winnable with trends.

[Storr]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

You must be fun at parties.

[Fargobison]

Biden up bigly in VA now...time to make the call.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Calling GA for Trump before Fulton's votes are in would be an act of utter irresponsibility for a news source, imo.