2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden's on track to win Pennsylvania.

He's far exceeding Hillary in the Philly area.  Even if he just MATCHED Hillary's Philly numbers (he'll do better) he'd net another 140k votes.  Not even counting the remaining suburban vote out there (lots).  Plus Pittsburgh.  Plus he's winning the mail in vote in the scattered red counties throughout the state that haven't reported.

I'd be extremely surprised at this point if Biden did NOT win PA.

[cg41386]

GA and PA are updating slowly.

PA is still a mathematical possibility according to CNN. I think it's going to be tough for Biden to win PA based on the numbers, but entirely possible.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 103,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 92,817 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~451,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 179,300 of them - (39.7%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 45,991 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~255,900 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 151,000 of them - (59.0%)

PA - Biden down by 195,953 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~856,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 526,000 of them - (61.4%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

Biden needs to win AZ and NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

With GA heading towards Biden, he may not need NV at all.

PA isn’t going to be tough at all given where the outstanding ballots are from.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meclazine's analysis is too pessimistic for Biden in PA.  He's on track to win it comfortably at this point.

Seems like worst case it's literally a statistical tie, and best case Biden wins by a little under 3-4%

[philly09]

Down to 40,000 in GA.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Where did that doomer with the remake Wonka sig go?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Perdue down to 50.2%

[rhg2052]

Perdue down to 50.2% / 134k margin

[Meclazine for Israel]

GA and PA are updating slowly.

PA is still a mathematical possibility according to CNN. I think it's going to be tough for Biden to win PA based on the numbers, but entirely possible.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 103,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 92,817 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~451,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 179,300 of them - (39.7%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 45,991 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~255,900 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 151,000 of them - (59.0%)

PA - Biden down by 200,360 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~854,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 527,500 of them - (61.7%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

Biden needs to win AZ and NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

With GA heading towards Biden, he may not need NV at all.

Yikes, so at this point you don't see PA going to Biden?

I don't know what chunks of votes are due in. There are smarter people on this forum to let us know which PA counties are left to come in.

If they are urban, Biden is in for a win. If they are rural, then Trump may hang on.

12% of the count left in PA, so it is entirely possible. Plenty of time.

[MillennialModerate]

So....how is GA and PA looking for Biden?

Awful and fairly decent

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN saying that Trump's team is anxious about GA right now, and that "they did not see this coming".

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.

This, but

Cocaine Mitch
      vs
Biden's Agenda (RIP)

[politics_king]

Perdue down to 50.2% / 134k margin

Nailbiter!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So....how is GA and PA looking for Biden?

Awful and fairly decent

Both look just fine. Give it a rest.

[anthonyjg]

Pretty confident in GA right now but we will see

[Dr. Arch]

Trump under 51% in PA now.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

But aren’t those three states pretty demographically similar?

Except Ohio (and Pennsylvania and Indiana and Illinois, though the later don’t actually have mountains, I’m talking culturally) have significant Appalachian regions, which the Upper-midwestern states don’t. Their is a slight but significant difference between whites in culturally Appalachian regions (extremely high evangelical number, significant ‘American’ ancestry) and northern whites (more mainline Protestant/Catholic, less religious as a whole, more educational attainment), it’s fading as urban/rural and education become more salient, but it’s an underrated reason that for example Wisconsin and Minnesota have been allot kinder to Democrats than Ohio and Indiana in the last couple decades.

[Inmate Trump]

Georgia...

Trump: 49.9
Biden: 49.0


I want to believe...I want to believe...

Trump: 49.8
Biden: 49.0


Soooo close....I keep expecting Kemp to rig it somehow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Philly still only at 70% as per NYT

[ultraviolet]

So....how is GA and PA looking for Biden?

Awful and fairly decent

Yikes. You're gonna be on suicide watch by the end of the night

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

[GALeftist]

Please sink Perdue please sink Perdue

[charcuterie]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

[philly09]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

What is unknown is if they were just fans of Trump and not the GOP.

[Rand]

Biden’s Michigan lead is just doing it for me right now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PredictIt giving Biden better odds in PA than AZ.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden’s Michigan lead is just doing it for me right now.

And I thought you were already...rising.