2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Kuumo]

Can someone explain to me wtf happened in Minnesota? Looks like Biden trounced Trump yet the GOP held the state senate. Why are Americans like this

My short and quick take on the ballot splitting is that, time and time again, American voters have shown they generally prefer divided government. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of "Biden's gonna win, might as well keep him in check" voters out there. We saw that clearly in 2016 when Orange County had lots of ticket splitting ahead of an anticipated Clinton win, only for Republicans to get blown out there in 2018.

American swing voters are never going to stop falling for this. Shaking my head right now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

[Dr. Arch]

I didn't stay up for the Milwaukee dump. What was the margin?

Was it as glorious as 2018?

Bigger. Biden is almost at 70% in the county.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1324051343057801219?s=19

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Still 238-214. Why hasn't Alaska been called?

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1324051343057801219?s=19

God I loathe her

[SPQR]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Apparently they're late mail in/drop off ballots, and there was a GOP edge amongst these registered voters.

[The Free North]

The one thing that worries me about Arizona is Santa Cruz is almost 100% in and is 67-31 Biden, was 71-23 Clinton. Ok, makes sense if Trump is better with hispanics.

Maricopa was 48-44 in 2016, and is now 52-46. Assuming Trump is doing a little better with Latinos, did he really lose whites by that much there? Maybe, but that seems like a massive flip to Biden? Even if it comes in a little, Biden will still be ahead I think.

[xavier110]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

[Pick Up the Phone]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1324051343057801219?s=19

Sounds a lot like wishful thinking.

[politics_king]

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm actually glad to hear Collins wins. We need more moderate members in the Senate from both parties.

Dude she voted like 95% with Trump. She's as much a moderate as I am. F*** her and f*** the Democrats for blowing the election this hard.

stop conflating moderation and partisanship.

Ah yes, so she only voted with Trump on his moderately far-right policies? And only voted for his moderately rapey judicial nominees?

Look bud, it's not my fault that you can't understand why moderate Republicans can still behave as rapid partisans on at least some occasions, especially in this era of unusually high levels of tribalism.

Oh so she can still be a "moderate Republican" even if she behaves like a senile old hack who's never met a lobbyist she didn't love. Okay, got it. Thanks and congratulations on the overwhelming fruition of your "NeverBernie" strategy, the Democratic Party is now in an amazing spot.

Hackishness and moderation are hardly antithetical, and your views on the matter are wrong. In "moderate Republican", when analyzing how they'd likely vote, the key part is usually "Republican", and "Republican" usually implies voting for the Republican candidate because they are the Republican. As for the "NeverBernie" stuff, I'm not going to give dignity to the rest of your comments at this time by providing a response.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324061986779504642?s=21
Lmao

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The AP calls MESEN.

[Bootes Void]

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

Trump has had an 80k lead for quite some time now

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

But that seems to be an more of a hypothetical of how possible voters might of acted then anything really data based

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Still 238-214. Why hasn't Alaska been called?

Alaska doesn't count most of its ballots until later.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1324051343057801219?s=19

This isn't correct. Most of the mail in ballots are majority Biden/Hillary counties and mail ballots in general, even from Red counties, skewed more Dem.

[dunceDude]

Seems like this thread will be garbage bickering and evidence-free hot takes for the near future.

Side note--is there any way to turn off seeing signatures? Users with huge signatures annoy the sh**t out of me. If I see that photo of Joni Ernst one more time I'm taking a long walk.

[wbrocks67]

I think people may be underestimating North Carolina - really depends on how many ballots are out. They said 200k+ right now, and that doesn't include any that arrive until 11/12...

[Suburbia]

Can someone explain to me wtf happened in Minnesota? Looks like Biden trounced Trump yet the GOP held the state senate. Why are Americans like this

It's like people really fell for the "check" system or something. Especially with the House races.

Yes, there are a lot of people who still suffer from the delusion that the legislature can check the executive. But what divided government means in reality, at least as long as Mitch McConnell is around and partisan polarization is as strong as it is, to the point where the GOP is willing to sacrifice the country's well-being purely for partisan gain, is that simply nothing of any significance whatsoever can happen and the government will be unable to function.

I don't think that is really what people want - a dysfunctional government - but the problem is a lot of people are stupid (or more accurately and more charitably, uninformed and uninterested in politics).

This. Including the celebrities like Ice Cube, 50 Cents, etc.

[MillennialModerate]

Georgia has 95% counted, Trump has a 81,494 lead. North Carolina has 94% counted, Trump has a 76,712 lead. The rest of the votes being counted lean toward Biden. Keep an eye on those contests, Biden still has multiple paths to win the Election and the Democrats have a small chance at taking the Senate.

I repeat. There is ZERO path to the senate. Absolutely zero. Anyone who wants me to put my money where my mouth is, let me know. I’ll give 4 to 1 odds

[xavier110]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

But that seems to be an more of a hypothetical of how possible voters might of acted then anything really data based

It is data based.

We know the following:

1) The EV returns got more Republican in Party Reg the closer we got to Election Day
2) The Election Day vote in AZ was 2-1 for Trump

So, it's safe to assume this vote will be more favorable to Trump than the earlier mail ballots. Just comes down to margins.

[Badger]

I'm actually glad to hear Collins wins. We need more moderate members in the Senate from both parties.

Dude she voted like 95% with Trump. She's as much a moderate as I am. F*** her and f*** the Democrats for blowing the election this hard.

stop conflating moderation and partisanship.

Ah yes, so she only voted with Trump on his moderately far-right policies? And only voted for his moderately rapey judicial nominees?

Look bud, it's not my fault that you can't understand why moderate Republicans can still behave as rapid partisans on at least some occasions, especially in this era of unusually high levels of tribalism.

Oh so she can still be a "moderate Republican" even if she behaves like a senile old hack who's never met a lobbyist she didn't love. Okay, got it. Thanks and congratulations on the overwhelming fruition of your "NeverBernie" strategy, the Democratic Party is now in an amazing spot.

Go argue somewhere else

I hate to say it, but you're actually both wrong. Susan Collins is a thinly-disguised partisan hack you will never hinder one aspect of the GOP agenda oh, but that has nothing to do with Democrats not running Bernie as the nominee.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324061986779504642?s=21
Lmao

"STOP THE COUNT" - Donald John Trump