2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Agonized-Statism]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Why do people keep stating that independence is an option in the referendum? It's simply "statehood yes or no".

My mistake. People do keep saying that and it's making it unclear to those who aren't actively following the referendum, myself included. To be fair, it's tough to find a news source that's reporting on Puerto Rico right now with the presidential race so close.

[riceowl]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

[politics_king]

LMAO!!!

[DrScholl]

Scott Walker says a recount isn't necessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scott-walker-suggests-biden-s-wisconsin-lead-too-big-for-recount/ar-BB1aGYLa?ocid=Peregrine

Dirty RINO! *punch* /MAGA

[BudgieForce]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Theres still something like 200,000 votes in the Atlanta area that need to be counted.

[MillennialModerate]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Brain cells. It’s been the most predictable of the none safe states since ... November of 2016. But alas

[politics_king]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

The votes are coming from Atlanta and Democratic counties, which favor Biden heavily.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

FWIW, the Times stopped updating the needles at 6am EST.  They're not going to change any further.

[DaleCooper]

If Arizona was potentially going to Trump then wouldn't we have gotten some indication from Fox or the AP regarding their calls? I doubt that both of them would be so confident as to not only call it, but then reaffirm that they were, in Fox's case, "100% sure" if they didn't actually know.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/zachgorchow/status/1324020925004685314?s=21

probably doesn't really change much though

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Damn, the left can meme!

[Alcibiades]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

The needle has stopped updating.

[Silent Hunter]

Err, are we 100% sure about Arizona here? Biden's lead has been shrinking for a while now.

Wasn't that bc E-day vote was coming in?

Hopefully. But if the remaining ballots are E-day as well we're in trouble.

Maricopa County is releasing more results at 9pm EST.

[Platypus]

Even rural areas nationwide are seeing D leading mail votes by at least 55%, so...

Make it a 55% margin for Gideon with outstanding ballots TCP, and the gain from outstanding ballots is still +26,284, add in the preferences from Savage and Linn and it's still a very tight result.

[Silent Hunter]

If Arizona was potentially going to Trump then wouldn't we have gotten some indication from Fox or the AP regarding their calls? I doubt that both of them would be so confident as to not only call it, but then reaffirm that they were, in Fox's case, "100% sure" if they didn't actually know.

They weren't using the erroneous data feed.

[Alben Barkley]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Brain cells. It’s been the most predictable of the none safe states since ... November of 2016. But alas

Why are you so hung up on this? Either way Georgia will be ridiculously slim. There was no actual REASON to think it was impossible after the left trends in 2016 and 2018. You just keep saying that for absolutely no reason. What a bizarre hill to die on, especially for someone who apparently lives nowhere near Georgia you seem awfully emotional about it.

[BlueSwan]

Fake?
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

very difficult to make up a 100k deficit, especially when its mostly VBM now

Who are "Data Orbital". Are these guys trustworthy or are they Trump hacks?

[SPQR]

Arizona better count those Maricopa votes quickly.

[ultraviolet]

Gary Peters now up 1000 votes

[MillennialModerate]

Even rural areas nationwide are seeing D leading mail votes by at least 55%, so...

Make it a 55% margin for Gideon with outstanding ballots TCP, and the gain from outstanding ballots is still +26,284, add in the preferences from Savage and Linn and it's still a very tight result.

Close but no cigar. Gideon simply is down by too much.

[riceowl]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

FWIW, the Times stopped updating the needles at 6am EST.  They're not going to change any further.

Oh thank you kind stranger!

[7,052,770]

The more I look, the more I see Maine senate as still up for grabs, but Collins is favoured if she stays over 48%.

If the remaining 25% of votes break a very possible, and perhaps slightly conservative estimate here, 60% for Gideon, two-candidate preferred:

1,051,376 votes total (if there's exactly 25% outstanding)
262,844 votes remaining

Gideon to gain 60% two candidate preferred means +157,706.4
Collins to gain 40% two candidate preferred means +105,137.6

Gideon net gain = 52,569

Current gap based on first preferences only = 40,825

And that's before factoring in the votes for the other two candidates - Linn's 1.7% probably breaks towards Collins pretty strongly, but Savage's 5% probably breaks towards Gideon strongly.

Long story short from someone who is very used to looking at preferential voting - Maine Senate is still very much up for grabs.

Your numbers as to how those ballots favor Gideon are extreme. In fact they might even favor Collins. But def not Gideon 60%

What? Savage is a progressive. Almost all of hers are going to Gideon unless they leave it blank.

[GALeftist]

Gary Peters now up 1000 votes

Thank you motorcycle gods

[Kuumo]

Gary Peters now up 1000 votes

Let's see if he can be Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters.

[forsythvoter]

The swings in WI are super fascinating. Atlas is going to a field day analyzing all the results once we get the complete results. Looks like Biden won because of a few factors:
1) D Turnout in Milwaukee County: Hillary won +162K, while Biden won it by +183K
2) D Turnout in Dane County: Hillary won +132K, while Biden won it by +181K
3) Decreased R margins in WOW: Hillary lost by -104K, while Biden lost them by -97K depite a huge turnout increase

Combined, these 3 areas gave Hillary a net margin of +180K, while Biden won them by +267K

In the rest of WI, Hillary lost by -203K, while Biden lost by -246k!

So anyway looks like Kenosha county WI swung 2 points to the right,

Kenosha BUMP?

lol.