2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[win win]

Ne-2 the swing district of 2020?

[Inmate Trump]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

[Omega21]

Peak 2020

‘Death match’ fight erupts on Brooklyn street as election results roll in

https://www.foxnews.com/us/death-match-fight-erupts-on-brooklyn-street-as-election-results-roll-in

[Middle-aged Europe]

Shadow people working overtime to steal Pennsylvania.

You can't steal a state. There's no ship or plane in the world where it would fit in.

[Alben Barkley]

I'll give credit where credit is due. The doomers were, by and large, right. Predicting a narrow Trump win is in fact closer to the actual result than the 413 map (which was what my prediction was in the ballpark of).

That still doesn't magically make the lion's share of their contributions to this forum worthwhile or not insufferable to read.

I think a lot of the "insufferableness" of doomer's contributions was due to having their opinions and warnings continually shot down and dismissed as bogus.  The back and forth that often ensued made the conversations difficult to read.

To also be fair, well over 90% of Doom or postings had no explanation for their argument. In fairness to the rest of us, the polls did show a comfortable Biden lead in most of these states, and that's had good quantifiable reason to be optimistic. Very very few Doomer posts went further than "becawz reasonzs" in explaining why almost all the polls were going to be wrong.

Wrong.  I continually warned that the polls could be off again; the polls being wrong in 2016 was all the explanation any of us doomers needed and most of us said so.  We still had 2016 fresh in our memories.  Most of you all forgot 2016 and decided to trust the polls that were so wrong the last time.

The 2016 polls were not off nearly this bad. This is completely unprecedented, and we’ll still win. So even with perhaps the biggest f—k-up in polling history, wasn’t enough to erase Biden’s lead.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/WI_Elections/status/1324036658623381509

[n1240]

DeKalb absentee vote counted today

Biden 18457
Trump 2672

Approximately 30k left

[Tender Branson]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

[emailking]

As anyone who was on this forum back in 2004 knows all too well, exit polls are useless trash.

They need to be taken with a grain of salt if you're trying to predict the result right when the first batch releases. Once everything's adjusted by the actual result they give a lot of good information about demographics that are probably accurate to within a few %.

[Hope For A New Era]

How is Georgia looking?

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324033062754160643

Yeah...Biden's gonna win PA.

My husband's home county.

[Bojack Horseman]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

[Sir Mohamed]

GA has dumped a little in, now from 92 to 93% counted. Trump lead shrunk to 87k from previously 100k.

[Panda Express]

How is Georgia looking?

Gonna be a squeaker

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is Georgia looking?

Trump leads by 87K, outstanding votes expected to be heavily D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hopefully, if all goes well, Biden wins PA by nearly 100,000 votes, which will be enough to avoid things being tied up in court and will win him the election.

[Alcibiades]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Yep. With my back of the envelope calculations, I reckon Biden has to win about 65% of outstanding ballots, which he ought to clear.

[Tender Branson]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

Biden will be President.

[politics_king]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

This is crazy. How is Georgia & North Carolina looking?

[Platypus]

As Badger suggested earlier, there's actually a pretty solid argument that the polls weren't wrong, just that Biden got his polling numbers within the MOE, but that undecided voters broke overwhelmingly for Trump. It makes sense given that this election was basically a referendum on Trump, and if after the last four years of every news bulletin starting with his latest ridiculousness someone wasn't decided against him they probably wouldn't be when they entered the voting booth.

Same thing, but less strongly, happened with the incumbents in 2012 and 2004.

[MillennialModerate]

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

[Hope For A New Era]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

Rust Belt saving Biden from the suddenly-Trumpist Latinos

Perdue has easily won.

He could drop below 50%.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

Biden up in MI, WI, AZ so he's at 270. He'll probably take at least one of PA/GA.

[Alcibiades]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

This is crazy. How is Georgia & North Carolina looking?

Trump will win NC, Biden narrowly favoured in GA.