Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you guys worry that Democrats will nationalize these races too much for their own good, kind of like what happened in ME?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just want to point out even though Perdue "outperformed" Trump, he still only got 1000 more votes in total. The GA-Sen race just had more 3rd party vote, and well as some people who didn't do down ballot.

I also think anyone who says they "know" what's going to happen with these races is being really premature. Warnock is by no means bound to beat Loefeller, and Osoff by no means is bound to lose to Perdue; I'm sure they'll be a few voters who split ballot but not that many. A lot of this will also depend upon Trump's behavior, how nationalized these races are, and most importantly, turnout. We've never had a runoff situation like this where the runoffs are likely to decide control of the senate; expect both parties to throw tons of money here and the media to cover it intently. This really is unprecedented and it'll be very interesting to see what happens

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

I think the whole lesson from this cycle is to never underestimate GOP enthusiasm

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears they think their only way of winning is ginning up the Trump base. Which is likely correct.

However, as we've seen, that energy is not transferrable to others. Loeffler and Perdue are uninspiring, mediocre at best candidates, and I don't see a lot of those low propensity Trump voters who came out this year coming out for a January 5 special.

Some will, but given GA's rush to the left this year, even downballot in a bright spot for Dems compared nationally, it would appear the momentum is objectively with Ds.

I get what you're saying, but you can also use the same logic that many unreliable Democratic voters in places like Atlanta only showed up to kick Trump out. The main goal for both sides was the Presidency, and now that's overwith.

Democrats, however, just won Georgia. IMO there's more for them to be excited about and now excited to turn out again.

I think the whole lesson from this cycle is to never underestimate GOP enthusiasm

True, but the results also tell a tale of surging Dem enthusiasm there as well now that it's officially a battleground.

The race is a tossup, though. Anyone who says otherwise is not being real.

I agree, at face value they are tossups, but my gut says they are lean or likely R based upon a lot of the disappointing Senate results

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1326020210218967040
Imagine opposing universal healthcare in the middle of a pandemic.

Anyway, nothing we didn't already know, but anyone blaming the Left if he loses is totally disingenuous.

maybe he's saying that because he wants to win the state?

What does it say about our people that universal healthcare is a losing issue?

M4A is a losing issue, not necessarily universal healthcare

[ProgressiveModerate]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

I'm not particularly hopeful about these two run-offs either, but Democrats have to try. There is too much at stake to just let McConnell have these seats without a fight.

And when it comes to the down-ballot races, as disappointing as they were, Georgia is one of the few states where the Democrat elected in 2018 got re-elected and over-performed Biden, and where Democrats actually picked up a seat. It does appear that Georgian suburbanites are more willing to support Democrats down-ballot than elsewhere in the country. Hopefully that will extend to the Senate races as well. There are things that can be worked with this year as opposed to most other Georgia run-offs.

Plain and simple: Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux overperformed in GA-6 & GA-7 because Trump was on the Ballot. He won't be on the Runoff Ballot. Call it strange but both Races going to Runoffs may actually help Republicans more since there is no one now to vote against.

That's a bold assumption, given that the Republican apparatus has spent the last 2 weeks doing nothing but sewing doubt among their base with regards to trusting the electoral process (so GOP voters might just not trust voting at all because mUh FrAuD, in addition to being less motivated as a result of the God Emperor being forced to leave the White House) & that Trump - based on how crazy he decides to continue acting between now & January 5th - may actually still significantly motivate both Democrats & the suburban swing voters that delivered the state for Biden, even without explicitly being on the ballot himself.

All of these things work both ways. For lower info D and R voters, their main goal has already been accomplished, and both sides have a group of voters who only see politics as the Presidency more or less. Ultimately this is a game of turnout; on the one hand, the Democrats seem to be forming a coalition of more reliable college educated voters, whereas the GOP has a lot of lower propensity voters, but they have an easier job messaging to those voters (screaming socialism).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like both of these races will go R. Ossof and Warnock may be decent candidates but in a runoff with a completely different electorate the Republicans will be favored. Especially when control of the Senate is on the line.

That's what I'm thinking too, at least what my gut tells me, but this really is an unprecedented, and we could see an unexpectedly lopsided result in either direction, and that'll reflect who did a better job at turning out their base.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ah, I have nightmares over these races still even though I've accepted the fact we're probably losing them, but at the same time I don't feel like my reasoning is justified and that my brain tells me these are tossups! Ah! Mental gymnastics!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Spending too much money can backfire. Reminds me of PA-18 back in 2018

While I agree, generally typically money only backfires when the partisanship of the state or district is unfavorable, and GA was basically a tie on the Presidential level

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats really need to figure out a message for these runoffs.

Republicans have it easy, they can just say that the elites will defund the police and murder your children if Democrats win this runoffs.

Democrats need to figure out a way to message that effectively energizes the base without stooping as low as the GOP in their attacks. Frankly, the average voters, the voters need to turnout to win don't know who Mitch McConnel, and even if they do, they don't really understand how the system works; what's at stakes in these runoffs.

If Democrats continue to go at the pace their going; spending tons of money on ads that don't convince anyone of anything , they'll lose. This is about turnout and they actively NEED to engage as many voters as possible; get people aware, register people to vote, and so on. As someone else pointed out elsewhere, Republican turnout in GA was actually higher than Democratic turnout despite Biden winning GA. They have the votes to win. They just need to activate them. We only have until December 7th to register voters though; after that, we have to turn out as many of them as possible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/georgia-democrats-door-to-door-canvassing-senate-races

This is good news.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It may not matter. Republicans are supercharged now and contrary to what every liberal is saying here African American Turnout will not be deciding factor in my view.

Are they? It seems like they're pretty deflated and irreparably split on whether or not the whole 2020 election was fake.

There's a good chunk of Rs who are supercharged and will show up for the runoff in their last attempt to prevent a D trifecta, but there are also probably some who are dissapointed Trump lost and don't feel the need to vote now. The inverse can be said for Democrats; some are really excited Biden won and want to give him the trifecta, while others are just happy to have knocked Trump out. The real question is which group is more relevant on either side.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1331255084534132736

Why don't Democrats just start calling Republicans authoritarians?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Georgia to Block New Voters ahead of Runoff

"...block new registrations before the Senate runoff to people who don’t have a car registered in the state."

"..This knocks out students and lower income urban voters (i.e. Black Atlantans) without cars. Of course, you can’t force people to buy a car in order to vote. The voters will be allowed on the rolls after a hearing, which will of course be after the January 5 election."

"...the rule not only states “The registrar may also consider…whether the applicant has a motor vehicle registered in this state,” but also that the registrar can take into account “whether the applicant has paid the required title ad valorem tax on such vehicle”. What does this have to do with voting except to knock out students and low income people"

https://www.gregpalast.com/georgia-tries-to-block-new-voters-ahead-of-runoff/

Why don't Democrats hammer this? It gets me annoyed when Republicans just label everything as socialists, and that's enough to rile up their base, while Democrats don't even talk about blatant voter suppression efforts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

TBF, your family is probably more engaged than the average voter.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Uhhh, I feel like this could end badly for Ossoff and Warnock:

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1332745159960883200

You're vastly overstating how much this would make an impact, especially in a state as polarized as Georgia. Sanders has also tweeted support for other Democratic candidates before.

I know we make all the "king of the suburbs" memes about Perdue, but he actually did run slightly ahead of Trump in these areas.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1330205262746181633

Swing voters and ticket splitters do exist in this state. And guess what? They're not exactly on board with the far left.

Mike Siegel in TX-10 had the brilliant idea of touting this endorsement:
https://twitter.com/siegelfortexas/status/1316802768095580160

He lost by over 7 as Biden lost the district by less than 2. Far leftism is toxic.

No wonder DeKalb looks so weird.

[ProgressiveModerate]

LMFAO, get a new campaign manager

I mean, the average American voter is pretty naive frankly so this kind of stuff, as silly as it may look to us, could work.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I thinking underrated possibility is that Loeffler slightly outruns Perdue because of a small number of Republicans who think Perdue is too much part of the establishment and wish he was more aggressive in
his rhetoric, so they'll just leave that ballot blank. Again, emphasis on the word small, but in this polarized day and age, over/under performances can come down to a few very specific voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1335026005669376000?s=20

This is pretty funny, though ultimately it won't change anyone's minds, but may help get more voters engeged.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146

This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

What's interesting is according to this, 6.6% of the people who requested mail ballots didn't vote in the GE. Most people this race as a matter of subtraction; who will be leaving the electorate, but it looks like there will be a sizeable numbers of voters being added to the electorate who will also have an impact.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know where to find a spreadsheet of all the voter IDs who voted in the 2020 GE ? I want to try to calculate where these 6.6% of non-2020 voters are coming from.