2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

If Nate's napkin math is correct, then Biden barely wins, probably. Doesn't make me comfortable, though

[politics_king]

Trump campaign suing the State of Michigan

Of course he is.

[brucejoel99]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

[wbrocks67]

It's possible but will still be difficult because R crossover in Maricopa county has generally been higher than D crossover and Indies leaned D this year.

So it's possible

Yep, per CNN exits, Biden winning Indies by 13% and 10% of Rs in AZ (compared to Trumps 3% of Dems)

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1324064855100432386

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

Bold guess, but could there be a significant amount of registered Old School Republicans (McCain Style) that didn't change party registration but voted for Biden?

Polling in AZ didn't seem as far off as in other states, does anyone know whether there is a significant amount of registered Republicans in AZ voting for Biden?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

Spitballing here, I’d say we’ll have a much better idea by Friday.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

If Nate's napkin math is correct, then Biden barely wins, probably. Doesn't make me comfortable, though

Going down to the wire like Georgia, but moving in the opposite direction.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Can Biden really break 80% in Multnomah?

Probably.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

Friday will be the latest if it all comes down to votes in PA.

[GP270watch]

 Atlas was mocking Ralston for saying Nevada would matter.

 Ralston was right.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

If Nate's napkin math is correct, then Biden barely wins, probably. Doesn't make me comfortable, though

Lol I love it. Napkin math, can we make this a meme?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Biden really break 80% in Multnomah?

Wouldn't be too shocked. Would certainly be in line with what we've seen so far.

[wbrocks67]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

Friday will be the latest if it all comes down to votes in PA.

Yep, though Saturday possibly, depending on how fast they count any remaining ballots that get in as of 5pm Friday

[Person Man]

Atlas was mocking Ralston for saying Nevada would matter.

 Ralston was right.

When do we get the dump today?

[Asta]

PA update:

176K left in Allegheny
167K left in Philly
68k left in Bucks
62K left in Montco
59k left in Chester
29K left in Delco
20K in Lancaster
20K in Luzerne
13k in Berks

https://twitter.com/JoeHoldenCBS3/status/1324065334115110917

If Allegheny (81%) and Philly (93%) keep going as they've been going, that should net Biden nearly 300K alone.

These #s also appear to be fluid with late arriving ballots. Earlier, Montco was down to 54K but now it's up to 62K

Biden is down something like 460k in PA right now. 300k isn't going to cut it.

Not sure how Cohn and Wasserman got their numbers but we'll see.

[The Free North]

Well guess its still a little interesting. Trump needs a flush of AZ/PA/GA to win. Doubt that happens but who knows.

[Rand]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Atlas was mocking Ralston for saying Nevada would matter.

 Ralston was right.

When do we get the dump today?

I believe Nevada will be providing daily updates at 3pm PST (6pm EST).

[xavier110]

A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern.

Take a deep breath everyone, we'll know Maricopa tonight. If these dumps are close and not a Trump runaway, we're ok. If he's clearing 60%+ though....

[politics_king]

Why haven't they called Alaska? I mean, I'm pretty sure we all know that's going to Trump.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Can Biden really break 80% in Multnomah?

Wouldn't be too shocked. Would certainly be in line with what we've seen so far.

Yeah, Biden has raised the ceiling in a lot of urban counties. Has already surpassed both Carter and Clinton vote share in Fulton and Pulaski county.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is it possible for Trump to win PA?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Why haven't they called Alaska? I mean, I'm pretty sure we all know that's going to Trump.

Alaska won't be counting its ballots for another week. We won't know anything definitive there for a while.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

If Nate's napkin math is correct, then Biden barely wins, probably. Doesn't make me comfortable, though

Lol I love it. Napkin math, can we make this a meme?

Uhhm....we don't have to?  "Back of the envelope (napkin) calculations" has been used as an idiomatic phrase since the days of Enrico Fermi, lol   

God, do I hate Zoomers