2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, it is indeed a statewide hand recount of the presidential race:

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Wednesday ordered a recount of all 5 million ballots cast in the presidential election to check initial results showing President-elect Joe Biden won by 14,000 votes.

Raffensperger, a Republican, said the recount will be conducted by hand in each of Georgia’s 159 counties, and it must be completed by a Nov. 20 deadline to finalize election results. Poll workers will review the printed text on ballots and then sort them into piles to check the accuracy of results.

The recount will be combined with a previously planned audit of paper ballots. But instead of auditing a relatively small sample of ballots, the review will encompass all ballots.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-launches-statewide-hand-recount-of-presidential-race/7PWR53SU6BAWDBOFRBJAW6HERA/

I believe three previous Georgia elections (not presidential) have been overturned by recount, but in those cases the margin was in the hundreds of votes or less.

What happens if the recount isn't finish by Nov. 20?

The original result stands?

I think the statute allows some wiggle room to extend the deadline under unusual circumstances.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1326575307248308224

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/toddgillman/status/1326568128843821056

inb4 Trump tweets about how this proves Jeffress isn't a real Christian or some such BS.

[wbrocks67]

AP now has Biden up to +49K in PA

Biden 3,379,191
Trump 3,330,127

[GP270watch]

PA update

Allegheny reports 2,349 votes - Biden 75.4% / 24.6% Trump

Biden's Pennsylvania statewide lead at 48,796. Trump is mathematically eliminated according to estimated votes remaining.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A hand recount is insane for a margin of 14,000 votes.

Still, better to be up by 14,000 than down at this stage. 

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Didn’t they call gore president elect for 30 days until supreme court ruled otherwise?

[WD]

This is just getting sad

https://mobile.twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1326298952774381575

[South Dakota Democrat]

Didn’t they call gore president elect for 30 days until supreme court ruled otherwise?

No, not at all.

[DrScholl]

Cuyahoga County is still listed at only 82% reporting so I'm assuming Cleveland's turnout will go up so he's going off incomplete numbers. But regardless the whole argument Republicans are using is "it doesn't look right" in lieu of evidence.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Didn’t they call gore president elect for 30 days until supreme court ruled otherwise?

There is literally ZERO equivalence between the 2000 and 2020 elections, for the love of god.

[Brittain33]

Didn’t they call gore president elect for 30 days until supreme court ruled otherwise?

No, Florida was frozen at a tiny lead for Bush so Gore never had 270 votes declared for him except briefly on Election Night, if at all.

[Tender Branson]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC



51/51:

306 Biden
232 Trump

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Alaska
Arizona
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska (4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden)
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

December 1st
Kansas
Washington
West Virginia

December 2nd
District of Columbia
Tennessee

December 3rd
New York
Oregon

December 4th
California
Illinois
Maryland

December 7th
New Jersey

December 8th
Colorado
Hawaii
Missouri

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

States that have sent their Certificate of Ascertainment to the National Archives:



51/51

306 EV - Biden
232 EV - Trump
538 EV - Total

States that have sent their Certificate of [Electoral College] Vote to the National Archives:



51/51

306 EV - Biden
232 EV - Trump
538 EV - Total

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[HillGoose]

Fitting that Delaware is the first, lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also Vermont: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-virus-outbreak-vermont-state-elections-c032ff165087312e0321c74311819866

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This is just getting sad

https://mobile.twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1326298952774381575

Well, I immediately see an error right off the bat:

So when you divide the number of votes cast in Wisconsin — 3,278,963 as of Nov. 5 — by the voting-age population in Wisconsin (4,536,293 as of 2019, according to the elections commission), you get a turnout rate of 72.3%. That’s the highest rate ever behind the 2004 election, but solidly in the range of past presidential contests here.

Recent presidential election turnouts in Wisconsin:

2020 — 72.3%
2016 — 67.3%
2012 — 70.4%
2008 — 69.2%
2004 — 72.9%
2000 — 67%

It is also worth noting that while Biden received about 250,000 more votes than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016, Trump exceeded his own 2016 totals by 14.6% percent, or about 200,000 votes.

Source:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/11/05/fact-check-wisconsin-voter-turnout-line-past-elections/6176028002/

--

But sure, let's just keep saying Wisconsin had a 90% turnout. 

Did you guys know that Wisconsin had 90% turnout?

[Badger]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations    

And nowadays isn't urbanity a proxy for Liberal democratic government? Exceptions to the rule, sure, but rare ones and growing rarer by the year.

No.  Of the twenty largest metro areas in the U.S., 8 of them are in states with Republican governors (7 with GOP trifectas).  That is not exceptional. 

The rest of your post is drivel.   

81% of the U.S. population is urban.  To think that Democrats win an overwhelmingly vast majority of these voters is wrong.  Trump will easily get more votes (in total) from urban areas than he will from rural areas, just as Biden will too.

Oh, so now you're trying to tie some incomplete half assed selection of GOVERNORS to wealth in Democratic run urban areas. Wow. that has droppd from silly to laughable!

Oh c'mon, can you stop acting so dumb Badger?

Georgia, Texas and Florida (three of the most urban, fastest-growing states in the whole country) have been pretty much exclusively governed by GOP trifectas for the past two decades.  This fact isn't "half assed" because (as you should know) governors, state legislatures and counties (which are administrative jurisdictions of the state) are responsible for implementing/enforcing laws relevant to economic growth/development:  taxes, public education, infrastructure, insurance law, environmental regulation, zoning/construction law, employment law, etc.  The powers of mayors/cities are explicitly subordinate to unitary State authority as defined by the relevant state statute/charter. 

However, my argument isn't that GOP control = economic/urban dynamism.  That's your argument! (albeit in the opposite partisan direction) but you haven't demonstrated any actual reason or evidence for it, lol.   It should be pretty obvious that post-industrial urban growth/economic development depends on a lot of social/economic factors that aren't really that politically-dictated.   So, my point remains:  you can't *infer how much some "contributes" to the economy from their vote, and there are plenty of dirt poor Democrats (as well as Republicans) to go around for everyone.     

So when Dallas and Houston our burgeoning economic powerhouses, that's because Republican governors and legislators have been part of the state. But when the Rio Grande Valley's are mired in poverty, that's because Democratic party hacks run their economies into the ground with liberalism. Got it. So, apparently Detroit being an economic Wasteland is because of generally having Republican Governors or at least legislators for the last couple decades?

My point is, this is the same idiotic cherry picking we hear from Republicans all the time. Chicago suffering from a spike in gang violence? Liberal Democratic permissiveness!! Chicago providing many times it's per capita rate of taxes to the federal government than it receives? Good thing we had Rauner as governor for 4 years!

California speaks for itself to anyone who isn't a party hack. Including, yes, at the Statewide level. Oh, and let's not forget New York alongside Illinois. Massachusetts? Pretty much all of New England?

Go ahead and review the latest list of per capita tax contributions versus receipts among all the states, and other than a few outliers like New Mexico oh, there's a very clear pattern. The graphic has triggered you so violently is even more so proving the point. He's heavily Democratic urban areas - - and the fact that it is not literally 100% universally voting Democratic is beyond irrelevant-- continues to mercilessly fling reality into the face of conservative economic ideologues like yourself. A strong correlation exists that Democratic urban areas are producers, Republican rural areas are takers.

I'm not saying that local government has a Paramount influence on economic development, but to write it off as even secondary to the States is again cherry-picking and laughable.

The point here is that local and state liberal government and economic growth in those areas basically Pop's the hot air balloon of conservative economic bought. Trying to write off these correlations as merely indicative of urbanity - - which again, is rather indicative of democratic governments - - it's a cop-out.

As much as Republicans hate to accept reality, which is perhaps why they react so violently to it, Californians were a hell of a lot better under Newsom and Jerry Brown than Kansans ever were under Brownback. This is only one example among many.

And just to be even more clear, even I wouldn't say that states and cities necessarily being governed by a liberal democratic governments is a Surefire route towards prosperity. In many ways they are a reaction to the industrialization and decline like Detroit, East Saint Louis, Etc. However, next time Republicans consider making a peep about how liberal Democratic economic policies are a Surefire recipe for disaster and stagnation, they need to check themselves - - and the fax - - before doing so.

[Tender Branson]

Oklahoma official results:

https://results.okelections.us/OKER/?elecDate=20201103

[Badger]

A hand recount is insane for a margin of 14,000 votes.

He just had both of his State's US senators from the same party calling on him to resign. He has to do something to cover his ass

[Crumpets]

Posted this in another thread, but here's the schedule for official certification dates:

November 5th
Delaware

November 10th
Louisiana
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 13th
Mississippi

November 16th
Virginia

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Arkansas
Idaho
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
North Dakota

November 23rd
Kentucky
Maine
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Utah

November 24th
District of Columbia
Indiana
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio

November 25th
Alabama
Alaska

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Nevada
Wisconsin

December 3rd
Connecticut
Oregon
Texas
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Hawaii
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Tennessee

[Bootes Void]

Biden is the first president elected from the silent generation. He is also the first from supporting the Iraq war (initally).

[Badger]

Didn’t they call gore president elect for 30 days until supreme court ruled otherwise?

I followed that election and it's aftermath like a hawk, and do not recall that ever having occurred even once by any media source.

[Tender Branson]

Louisiana was supposed to certify yesterday, but they didn’t.

[Badger]

Didn’t they call gore president elect for 30 days until supreme court ruled otherwise?

No, Florida was frozen at a tiny lead for Bush so Gore never had 270 votes declared for him except briefly on Election Night, if at all.

No, not even that. IRC the Network's had withdrawn their early call of Florida by the time Gore would have otherwise broken 270 EV

[GeorgiaModerate]

A hand recount is insane for a margin of 14,000 votes.

He just had both of his State's US senators from the same party calling on him to resign. He has to do something to cover his ass

Yes, and Raffensperger knew that the Trump campaign would request a recount anyway after certification (since the margin is within 0.5%), so this wasn't an unreasonable move.

Also in Georgia, the AJC (main Atlanta newspaper) slammed Perdue and Loeffler in an editorial, and even splashed it above the top of the headline on page 1:

https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1326556838104616962