2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 617638 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: November 03, 2020, 08:53:38 AM »
CNN does not see MS-Senate as a „key race“ ...

I think this could end up pretty close.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 09:58:20 AM »
Ca. 500.000 people have already voted today in FL.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 11:44:56 AM »
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
8,800 votes in Guam now (40% partially reporting). Biden slightly gains to 55.8-41.6.

Guam is "close" to China.

This might have an impact for voters there, after all the anti-China stuff coming from Trump.

That's why it may end up 60-40 Biden, compared to 72-28 Hillary.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 01:28:05 PM »
Quote from: new_patomic on November 03, 2020, 01:16:54 PM
If I'm understanding correctly, so far Republicans are winning the ED vote in Florida 50-25-25? From the counties reporting registration #s at least.

Quote from: Tender Branson on November 02, 2020, 09:27:08 AM
Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Good night.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 07:17:50 PM »
Good night !

Biden is doing ca. 1-4% better on average than Hillary it seems.

Adjusted for Election Day voting.

If it holds up, he might squeeze out a FL win.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 07:22:00 PM »
Miami-Dade looks brutal for Biden.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 07:30:41 PM »
Biden only does a few points better than Hillary in the Indianapolis suburbs.

That might be enough to win states like MI, WI ... but might also not be enough.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 07:34:47 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 03, 2020, 07:32:14 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 07:30:41 PM
Biden only does a few points better than Hillary in the Indianapolis suburbs.

That might be enough to win states like MI, WI ... but might also not be enough.

there is only 11% of the vote in right now in Indiana

Some Indianapolis suburbs already have 90% in though ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 07:36:50 PM »
FL going Trump would actually be good for my high-risk bet at William Hill, but Biden would also need to lose OH and win the Presidency for me to cash in a lot of €€€ ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 07:47:39 PM »
The results are almost unchanged from 2016 in rural IN (Cass or Wabash counties) with 100% in.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 07:59:07 PM »
Biden with really good results in Hamilton County, a Indy suburb.

Tie (2016: Trump+20)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 08:06:19 PM »
The first VA county 100% in (Richmond): Trump gains 2% compared to 2016.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 08:12:11 PM »
Blue KS !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 08:15:45 PM »
Biden better win AZ, NV, PA, MI and WI - or he’s done.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 08:31:53 PM »
NC is just looking good for Biden because of the absentee/early vote.

The Election Day vote will chip away the margin like sh*t ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 08:38:41 PM »
Scotland (NC): Trump +2 (2016: Clinton+ 10)

100% in.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 08:40:18 PM »
Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 08:43:23 PM »
Blue TX, KS and MO.

Screenshot it as long as it’s still this way ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 08:50:52 PM »
This is not looking good.

At all.

I should have stuck with my Trump wins prediction from a week ago.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 08:52:20 PM »
VA is looking strange.

Trump might also win AZ and NV.

NM is going to be close.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 08:53:52 PM »

Nope.

The Election Day vote will chip away Biden’s lead.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 09:04:02 PM »
This clusterfukk of an election is giving me a headache.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 09:08:32 PM »
Biden will probably fall short in many states by 1% or so.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 09:10:23 PM »
I can only hope that Biden loses OH and wins the Presidency somehow.

I want to cash in hundreds of €€€.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 09:14:55 PM »
Biden didn’t take „Latinos for granted“.

It’s more a combination of Latinos not wanting more of their folk coming into the US illegally when they themselves came often legally and stick to the rules, buying more and more into Trumps tough immigration rhetoric. Also, many Latinos are machos.
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