2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Torie]

That is end of that in PA from a legal standpoint.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962

After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

It's fairly outrageous that the GOP gleefully trying to disenfranchise 10,000 people is lost in the overall Pennsylvania story because of all the other atrocities they are committing.

Ehhh... I'm not as sympathetic in that particular case.  It was trying to change the rules away from the written law at the last minute on a 1 vote partisan majority, and I was hoping it would be overturned on Purcell grounds.

That having been said if the way it got overturned was by a hyperliteral interpretation of "legislature thereof," that would have tragic implications for voting rights in many other states and cases. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962

After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

It's fairly outrageous that the GOP gleefully trying to disenfranchise 10,000 people is lost in the overall Pennsylvania story because of all the other atrocities they are committing.

Ehhh... I'm not as sympathetic in that particular case.  It was trying to change the rules away from the written law at the last minute on a 1 vote partisan majority, and I was hoping it would be overturned on Purcell grounds.

That having been said if the way it got overturned was by a hyperliteral interpretation of "legislature thereof," that would have tragic implications for voting rights in many other states and cases. 

The legislature refused to change the law despite there being a pandemic and knowing the mail was moving slowly.  Regardless of the Purcell principle or whether the PA Courts over-reached, the bottom line is that the GOP tried as hard as it could to make sure people wouldn't get their votes in.  Not only that, they are arguing in court that it's not right that people were informed that their ballots were incorrect and given a chance to cure them.  These people don't belong in civilized society.

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326343054974877696

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326342980848939008

[GP270watch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326343054974877696

YES! I was jonesing.

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326345486832267264

[BudgieForce]

Not enough.

[Hammy]

Is Arizona ever going to finish counting?

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326345486832267264

Getting another % harder for Trump.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1326344772219498496?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326345486832267264

Getting another % harder for Trump.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1326344772219498496?s=20

This state should've been called by NYT, CNN, and gang eons ago.

[Alben Barkley]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326345486832267264

Getting another % harder for Trump.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1326344772219498496?s=20

This state should've been called by NYT, CNN, and gang eons ago.

Especially since they don’t do recounts unless it’s EXTREMELY close, like 0.1%, there will be no change in the outcome.

[Gass3268]

Is Arizona ever going to finish counting?

This is actually faster than past years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with the new numbers from Maricopa County. Maricopa is now down to an estimated 22,456: 1300 needing signature cure (which should be resolved soon), 6026 provisional, and 15130 waiting to tabulate.

Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline was 5pm MST today except in 3 counties, when it's Nov 12): 2977
Provisional ballots: 28502
Ballots ready for tabulation: 15290

Total: 46769

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 39580 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 5067 from them.  He currently trails by 12813, so would finish behind by 7746.

Of the estimated remaining 46.7K ballots, 22.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[Ferguson97]

AP and Fox Decision Desks VINDICATED

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326348181626499073

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326343694912466944
Doesn't seem like he's joking to me.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326347841476890627
Guy denies he recanted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326348964061470721

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326343694912466944
Doesn't seem like he's joking to me.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326347841476890627
Guy denies he recanted.

James O’Keefe is a liar and a fraud. You can’t ever trust a damn thing he says or puts out to not be fake or manipulated.

[Mike88]

Around 50,000 new votes from Alaska were just dumped:

Trump 20,240
Biden 27,251

The totals from the state now are:

139,264 57.7% Trump
  91,497 38.9% Biden

[BudgieForce]

I hadn't realized that Trump's entire twitter feed is now devoted to voter fraud conspiracy theories.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a president in my lifetime debase themselves like this before.

[emailking]

Yeah I'm only posting a fraction of his stuff but he's in some deep denial. Unless this was just the plan all along.

[Bootes Void]

Around 50,000 new votes from Alaska were just dumped:

Trump 20,240
Biden 27,251

The totals from the state now are:

139,264 57.7% Trump
  91,497 38.9% Biden

Biden is doing better than Gross.So Trump and Sullivan should win.  This obviously wont be a senate pickup.... not that we were expecting it too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hadn't realized that Trump's entire twitter feed is now devoted to voter fraud conspiracy theories.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a president in my lifetime debase themselves like this before.

Let's hope we never see another one.

[Bootes Void]

Trump posting NowThis which is a fairly liberal channel is bizarre