2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 616979 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: November 03, 2020, 07:35:56 AM »
This is a good explainer on this years exit poll: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/exit-polls-2020-pandemic/index.html

It sounds like they're doing as much as they can to make it as accurate as possible, but this year is so fluid they probably (unfortunately) should be taken with even more of a grain of salt than usual
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 07:45:22 AM »
Quote from: Splash on November 03, 2020, 07:43:14 AM
The bed-wetters will no doubt seize on this but here you go:



But on the other hand:




OMG this day is going to be long if we're already overreacting to reports like this after barely an hour in one county
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 08:09:50 AM »
Quote from: Godless American on November 03, 2020, 07:50:52 AM
Are you all really suprised that the election day vote is heavily republican? Most people already voted by early voting..

Not to mention, there is a ton of Dems who could be returning their mail in ballots today as well who aren't in these EV #s. We just don't know what it all means. But we knew the actual in person early vote would skew R today.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 09:32:22 AM »
Also regardless of the D/R leads, people are continuing to ignore those 2M+ NPA votes
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 09:36:16 AM »
DeSantis echoing other terrible pundits that are ignoring that there has been like 3M more early votes this year in 2016.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 10:07:41 AM »
This is going to be live tonight at 8pm when polls close. Going to be very helpful in contextualizing the PA vote:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 11:20:45 AM »
What is the point in posting FL-at-large totals when it doesn't even include like 5/6 counties, including *MIAMI* for gods sake? It's an incomplete picture.

Also, for 50th time, it's truly astonishing to see people keep acting as if the NPA vote is just not there and simply going off of D/R totals
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 11:26:58 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 03, 2020, 11:25:00 AM
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 11:19:26 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 03, 2020, 11:15:37 AM

Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?


Yikes... that does... not look good for Trump even if we're just going off of purely D/R totals
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 12:28:59 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 03, 2020, 12:23:14 PM
Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

In terms of what? Election day vote? Total votes? Mail in votes? Please be specific. I would be surprised if Trump does as well in Allegheny as he did in 2016.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 12:36:46 PM »
You would think Marc Caputo would put in his tweet the total turnout in EV in 2016 when Dems were up 1.4%. It's not an apples to apples comparison. These people, man.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 04:11:16 PM »
There is a "Vote Today" sign flying across the sky in all of Philadelphia today. Been up the circling around the entire day.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 04:12:18 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 03, 2020, 03:33:12 PM
bit of perspective in republican areas in PA


Press x for doubt. Pretty sure *no* precinct *anywhere* broke turnout records after only being open for 4 hours. Also, running out of literature is possibly the weakest possible enthusiasm update I could think of...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 04:12:59 PM »
Meanwhile, if this is true, hard for Trump to win PA.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 04:17:45 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on November 03, 2020, 04:14:02 PM
We need the numbers from Pennsylvania.


What numbers?!! What are you expecting before polls close?!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 04:18:41 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on November 03, 2020, 04:16:41 PM
Quote from: Statilius the Epicurean on November 03, 2020, 04:13:40 PM


Kind of disappointing to be honest.

For who? GOP is kidding themselves if they think the "worst case scenario" for them is Trump +3.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 04:19:11 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on November 03, 2020, 04:18:09 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 03, 2020, 04:17:45 PM
Quote from: Ljube on November 03, 2020, 04:14:02 PM
We need the numbers from Pennsylvania.


What numbers?!! What are you expecting before polls close?!

Turnout numbers.


Did you not see the Montco one?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 04:20:29 PM »
Quote from: Splash on November 03, 2020, 04:19:20 PM



Texas certainly appears very positive for a possible Biden win...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 04:58:43 PM »
Ralston's updates are useless bc they don't include any of the mail ballots being dropped off today.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 04:59:24 PM »
Quote from: Chocolate Thunder on November 03, 2020, 04:58:04 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 03, 2020, 04:54:07 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 03, 2020, 04:53:08 PM


Awful news for Trump

Awful for McSally, as well. 

This is what the NYT thought would be happening when they said Trump was down 3? 4?

Yep... if Rs can even make it to R+3, Biden was still up 6...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 05:09:53 PM »
PPP has an "exit poll" at Biden +12, 54-42

https://twitter.com/ProtectOurCare/status/1323743140696805377
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 05:10:29 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 03, 2020, 05:09:28 PM
48% think our containment is going well? HUH?

Early exit polls are wonky but if this *is* true, wtf?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 05:14:43 PM »
The exit poll for Florida is slanted...

37R / 30D / 33I

We can tell based on the turnout that that is not true.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 05:15:42 PM »
Quote from: UBI man good on November 03, 2020, 05:14:03 PM
Quote from: Rep Jessica on November 03, 2020, 05:13:29 PM
FLORIDA % Turnout                           
19
      Party   % Turnout                           
20
      Democratic   74.6%                           
21
      Republican   80.3%                           
22
      NPA/Other   65.4%                           
23
      All Voters   74.1%

Republicans are turning out! It will be close either way but this isn't something that is going Bidens way. We'll know within about 7 hours.
Lol this is worse than 2016

You do realize there are 2 hours left and some counties are missing?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 05:16:27 PM »
The FL exit poll also has Trump approval at 54/45, so... it seems this wave may seriously be skewing R
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 05:21:13 PM »
Miami-Dade still strong Dem on E-Day seems like a good sign. We'll see if FL Dems end up voting later on like they usually do.
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