2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

While Trump's EC advantage was still large, 2020 was definitely an indication that it's not something Republicans can count on for much longer.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Total Raw Vote Numbers have now jumped to 2,411,802 Total Votes... as of 11/10/20 1714 PM PST.   (81.78% RV TO)

+~15k New Votes added.

+8,941 Biden     (61.6% D)
+4,782 Trump    (32.9% R)
+  798 3rd Party ( 5.5%)

+ 14,521 TOTAL

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/Default.aspx

[vileplume]

California is overwhelmingly likely to trend R from 2016!

What?

As of right now with 92% of the vote in, Biden has 64% of the vote in California (Trump 33%) and with over 10 million votes.

In 2016, Hillary won California 61%-31% over Trump with 8 million votes.

Biden so far has gained 3% more than Hillary. Trump has gained 2%. That's not trending R.

Yes, it is.  He didn't say swing Republican, but trend Republican.  The NPV swung by more than that.  I would say, with what we know about Asian and Hispanic swings in 2020, along with California potentially being almost maxed-out, it would make a lot of sense for it to trend slightly Republican in this election.

Well, if so, that's just noise.

Most trends are just noise unless they happen consecutively over the course of many election cycles or a very large trends.

Do you think that CA will continue to trend R in future elections?

If the GOP continues to gain with non-white voters then, yes, it's pretty inevitable it will (not that the state will actually be competitive for a long while, though narrowing the margins here would massively help their chances of winning the national popular vote). The reason why the GOP has done atrociously in Cali in the last few decades is not because of rich white liberals, it's because the state is less than 40% non-Hispanic white and the GOP are/were seen as the de facto 'white' party.

Looking at the recent ballot propositions it's clear that California voters are nowhere near as left-wing as many presumed, so if the GOP can genuinely build a sustainable multi-ethnic coalition (and that still is a big if) then there is scope for them to claw themselves out from oblivion in the Golden State.

[Annatar]

While Trump's EC advantage was still large, 2020 was definitely an indication that it's not something Republicans can count on for much longer.

The tipping point state this year will be even more Republican compared to 2016 and the 2 big states that are gaining EV's post 2020, Florida and Texas are not trending democrat very strongly, Florida not at all, if we have a close election in 2024 there could be massive split between the electoral college and popular vote.

[John JJ]

While Trump's EC advantage was still large, 2020 was definitely an indication that it's not something Republicans can count on for much longer.

The tipping point state this year will be even more Republican compared to 2016 and the 2 big states that are gaining EV's post 2020, Florida and Texas are not trending democrat very strongly, Florida not at all, if we have a close election in 2024 there could be massive split between the electoral college and popular vote.

We're not in 2024 yet. Many things can/will happen before. Starting with Trump conceding his clear defeat.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like CO and VA dumped a bunch of new votes, CO's lead has grown to Biden +13.5 and VA's to +10.1.

Given that late arriving ballots everywhere trend Dem, I wouldn't be so sure about CA. It's possible that the "middle ballots" arriving now are a bit R, but like CO, when the "ending ballots" start getting counted, the Dem lead starts growing again. CO was down to Biden +12 at one point, but has been growing ever since again. Same with NJ.

Oh and NH has grown from Biden +7.1 to Biden +7.4

[wbrocks67]

In PA, looks like 50K mail ins statewide still. There were also 94K provisionals issued across the state on Election Day, but unclear how many have been counted.

At least 8.5K mails in left in Philly, with 18-25K provisionals.

At least 7-12K mails in Allegheny, with 17K provisionals

https://twitter.com/meganguzaTrib/status/1326292951383863296

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republican Secretary of State of Montana:

https://twitter.com/Stapleton_MT/status/1325174324781670401

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

Joe Cunningham, Kendra Horn, and Ben McAdams were three of my favorite Democrats across-the-aisle.  It genuinely hurts losing them.  

[riceowl]

NBC just called Alaska; pres and senate

[wbrocks67]

It's kind of ridiculous that Georgia has not been called. A recount is not changing 14K and we don't even know if there even will be one.

[Alben Barkley]

LOL

https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1326396394891079681?s=21

[Helsinkian]

^ I guess people don't like it when they are called "losers" and "suckers".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, what people sometimes call "military" ballots are actually "overseas and military ballots" -- i.e. they also include U.S. citizens working overseas.  The latter are usually about 60% of the total, and tend to run quite Democratic.  Not to mention that the swings in counties with large military presences indicate that Trump did lose ground among service members and their families.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1326524820658511872

[MasterJedi]

Are we sure Trump didn’t steal Alaska? (Sarcasm for the cultists here).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's kind of ridiculous that Georgia has not been called. A recount is not changing 14K and we don't even know if there even will be one.

Right, isn't this the exact situation the designation of "apparent winner" was meant for?

[Bootes Void]

If. Biden won Maine 2nd, the tipping point state would be Pennsylvania which will be Biden +3 compared to Biden +4 to 5 nationally

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we sure Trump didn’t steal Alaska? (Sarcasm for the cultists here).

Probably paid a bunch of Caribou to stuff the ballot boxes. 

[Wiz in Wis]

It's kind of ridiculous that Georgia has not been called. A recount is not changing 14K and we don't even know if there even will be one.

Right, isn't this the exact situation the designation of "apparent winner" was meant for?

My "guess" is that the networks are waiting for the counties to finish certifying their results, and then will call it. That should happen this week.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326545633465917443?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

If. Biden won Maine 2nd, the tipping point state would be Pennsylvania which will be Biden +3 compared to Biden +4 to 5 nationally

This isn't as bad as it looks for Dems in the medium-long run.  Arizona and Georgia moved into the top tier and NC narrowed substantially, which gives them a path without any of MI/WI/PA in the future.  Georgia in particular could be as gone as Virginia for Republicans by the middle of the decade.  California became less of a Dem pack relative to the nation (and with a native Californian on the Dem ticket to boot), New York and Illinois probably did as well, and Republicans are going to start wasting meaningful votes in Florida once national Dems pull out of there for good.  New England swinging back to near Obama 2012 margins could also be very important for long term Dem prospects in the senate.

[Gass3268]

It's kind of ridiculous that Georgia has not been called. A recount is not changing 14K and we don't even know if there even will be one.

Right, isn't this the exact situation the designation of "apparent winner" was meant for?

My "guess" is that the networks are waiting for the counties to finish certifying their results, and then will call it. That should happen this week.

Probably gonna be a while:

https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1326547451688308748?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1326524820658511872

Mr. Trump is now at him. This dude is human scum. Sorry for the harsh term, but that's what it is. Maybe someone with a Twitter account can report this. Intimitating people by name with this number of followers is despicable. It should be deleted.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326525851752656898