2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Dr. Arch]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Pima County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4238
Provisional ballots: 33173
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20523

Total: 57934

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 49180 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7802 from them.  He currently trails by 14468, so would finish behind by 6666 (really).

Of the estimated remaining 58K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

So nothing has really moved?

No. The percentage margin has moved several decimals as a product of the total being higher as votes keep coming in, but the net change has been basically zilch. The Fox and AP decision desks continue to be vindicated.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Biden was supposed to shut the door here on Trump so not great for either. Trump loses a big chunk of remaining votes without picking up too much and now needs a higher percentage of whatever remains.

That’s half the Pima stuff.

No, Pima was 18k I'm sure of it, they dropped 7k and now 15k is showing(maybe they didn't update). However look a few pages back at the summary of Arizona votes remaining look at what votes have dropped and it doesn't add up.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Biden was supposed to shut the door here on Trump so not great for either. Trump loses a big chunk of remaining votes without picking up too much and now needs a higher percentage of whatever remains.

That’s half the Pima stuff.

No, Pima was 18k I'm sure of it, they dropped 7k and now 15k is showing(maybe they didn't update). However look a few pages back at the summary of Arizona votes remaining look at what has dropped and it doesn't add up.

They're estimated votes remaining. Not concrete numbers.

[Badger]

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

And yet it is the Miss governed liberal Democratic administrations of these places that Republicans whine about & cite as a warning for what could befall the country.

Bottom line, Atlas red counties produce, while Atlas blue counties take but whine about it just the same. Not Universal, but Damned consistent.

Just by single example, if even one tenth of Republican nostrums about small government and the dangers of progressive Economic Policy (aka "socialism") were to be believed, California would be a post-apocalyptic Wasteland rather than a booming home to the 8th largest economy in the world

[Del Tachi]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties.  

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations  

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Biden was supposed to shut the door here on Trump so not great for either. Trump loses a big chunk of remaining votes without picking up too much and now needs a higher percentage of whatever remains.

That’s half the Pima stuff.

No, Pima was 18k I'm sure of it, they dropped 7k and now 15k is showing(maybe they didn't update). However look a few pages back at the summary of Arizona votes remaining look at what has dropped and it doesn't add up.

They're estimated votes remaining. Not concrete numbers.

 Yes, that's why it's hard to forecast a moving target.

[Badger]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations    

And nowadays isn't urbanity a proxy for Liberal democratic government? Exceptions to the rule, sure, but rare ones and growing rarer by the year.

BTW, let's not forget about all those working class and poor Mississippi whites who vote upwards of 95% for Trump. Their contribution to state or national GDP is pretty damn Limited.

Seriously, if you have to rely on rule exceptions like black belt, Rio Grande Valley, and Indian Reservation counties to demonstrate that wealth isn't overwhelmingly produced in the most democratic-leaning portions of the country, you're not going to convince anyone of your argument other than presumably yourself.

[Non Swing Voter]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties.  

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations  

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

The exit polls are already showing Biden won the 100K+ vote. 

Just looking at the counties Trump is winning by 80 point margins, they are all dirt poor.  The GOP is just a party of grifters who have a made a political movement of grifting and then claiming the other side is socialist.  If gainfully employed people still voted Republican Trump wouldn't have been so badly swamped in fundraising.

[Badger]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties.  

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations  

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

The exit polls are already showing Biden won the 100K+ vote. 

Just looking at the counties Trump is winning by 80 point margins, they are all dirt poor.  The GOP is just a party of grifters who have a made a political movement of grifting and then claiming the other side is socialist.  If gainfully employed people still voted Republican Trump wouldn't have been so badly swamped in fundraising.

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wasn't Dems anti-capitalist? Only Oligopolistic Big Tech (Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook,Microsoft) accounts for like 5% of US GDP? Greedy capitalists, anyone?

Gi! As I said earlier Dems turning into Wealthy White Lib party. CA votes for pro-Uber semi-slaving measure, while Florida votes for $15 minimal wage. What a time to be alive!

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/tech/california-proposition-22/index.html

Imagine if Nancy spent her time fighting this, not Trump Stimulus Bill. But why would you fight a friend?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/uber-lyfts-proposition-22-was-a-warning-shot-to-democrats.html

Or Harris’s brother-in-law, Tony West, who is the chief legal officer for Uber. Anthony Foxx used to be Barack Obama’s Transportation secretary; now he’s Lyft’s policy chief. If Democrats want to be taken seriously as the party of working-class people, that pipeline has to close for good. But its very existence is a symptom of a more serious illness.

Dems as "the party of working-class people"? 

[Gass3268]

Sigh, Clark County only counted 1,209 votes today, but Biden won them by a bunch:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1326290034870292480?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

[Ferguson97]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

Imagine posting this braindead meme.

Democrats consistently offer excellent solutions for the working class and the white working class tells them go to hell.

[Del Tachi]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations    

And nowadays isn't urbanity a proxy for Liberal democratic government? Exceptions to the rule, sure, but rare ones and growing rarer by the year.

No.  Of the twenty largest metro areas in the U.S., 8 of them are in states with Republican governors (7 with GOP trifectas).  That is not exceptional. 

The rest of your post is drivel.   

81% of the U.S. population is urban.  To think that Democrats win an overwhelmingly vast majority of these voters is wrong.  Trump will easily get more votes (in total) from urban areas than he will from rural areas, just as Biden will too.

[Non Swing Voter]

why are there still no Georgia projections?  there's like no vote left.

[Person Man]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

It might actually work but for and inspire of completely ironic reasons.

[GoTfan]

Anhone know anything about what the AG's from those atates signed regarding mail-ins?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/OversightDems/status/1326289047933816836

[GP270watch]

CA votes for pro-Uber semi-slaving measure, while Florida votes for $15 minimal wage. What a time to be alive!

You talk about things you don't know.

  Large red counties in Florida didn't pass the measure. In Florida you need 60% to pass a measure.

 Lee, Collier, Brevard Polk, Pasco were under 60% but over 50%. It was the blue Democratic counties that powered this ballot measure.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/OversightDems/status/1326289047933816836

Of course he did.

[Del Tachi]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations    

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

The exit polls are already showing Biden won the 100K+ vote. 

Biden won the <$50k household income bracket by an even larger margin.  So what does that say about your point?  Democrats are obviously the party of the poors, right?  lol

Republicans are still overwhelmingly the party of the salaried, middle to upper-middle class.  If you're middle-aged, White, college-educated, suburban, Christian, and married with kids at home - you're most likely a Republican.  It's only when a voter deviates from one of these "median" characteristics that he becomes a likely Democrat voter

Democrats have an "hourglass" coalition that attracts extremes from both sides of the spectrum.  It's why their fundraising and messaging are dominated by Ivy-educated elites in big cities but the actual *votes they need to get elected are a lot browner and poorer than the party's apparatus would suggest.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

why are there still no Georgia projections?  there's like no vote left.

Likely because of the requested recount (since the margin is well under the 0.5% mark). 

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/OversightDems/status/1326289047933816836

Of course he did.

So our side was right when I said we couldn't just take him at his word without some hard evidence. Imagine that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1326270295641104386

Note the second line of the heading: "George" Secretary of State.