2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

aren't including CA-34 in that count because, while technically uncalled, it's D vs. D.

I'm very annoyed with my house district right now.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1326225036680761344

I'm shocked that Rouda lost. Why?

It's a Republican district. It was one of the most challenging targets in 2018 and Rouda won partly because of Dana Rohrabacher's weakness.

[Kuumo]

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1326225036680761344

I'm shocked that Rouda lost. Why?

Angry Orange County Karens who don't like Russia but also don't like wearing masks.

[philly09]

Darrell Issa is back in.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

This chart is premature. Once all the mail-in ballots are counted, Trump won't win Nassau County, NY.

[n1240]

NYT just officially projected Democrats will hold the House. Their count is still at 217 in terms of seats, but I think for whatever reason they aren't including CA-34 in that count because, while technically uncalled, it's D vs. D.

There are 193 seats in the "Democrats expected to win easily" column, and 27 seats won in the "Democrats expected to win narrowly" column. Account for 2 uncalled expected to win seats then it equals 218 seats which is # of seats they have for Dems now, so I think CA-34 is being included in the count.

[GP270watch]

Biden only did slight better than Clinton in Detroit, Cuyahonga county Ohio, Milwaukee, Flint and a few other declining midwestern cities. If Biden wants to win again in 4 years, he need to get the vote totals in those cities back to or above Obama levels cause otherwise he will lose those states in 2024 if he doesnt. I dont trust the suburban areas as they might be more open to non trumpian republican and I wouldnt bet on the rurals trending back to the Democrats. He has to fins a way to maintain support otherwise it might be a problem for democrats electorally.

Also Im surprised Miami-Dade  swung so hard to Trump. I went to Miami a few years ago and it felt like a very cosmopolitan international party city with people showcasing their wealth. The city was also very lgbt friendly and had a somewhat liberal feel to it. I wonder why they would trend to the republican so hard this election even though this place doesnt feel conservative at all. is it cause of the racism down there?socialism? braggadocio?machismo? I guess well see

There has been population decline in big midwest cities and some of those people have moved into the suburbs.

 Trump and the Florida GOP found new voters in Miami-Dade county and the Republicans are going to be hard to beat for a while in Florida. The City of Miami and the surrounding tourist areas are much different than the rest of the towns and cities in Miami-Dade county.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ahmaud arbery bump for biden?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1326244032322949120

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1326244032322949120

Wow. When even the wake and Orange County election day vote goes Republican....

[emailking]

That's an odd tweet. I don't think the breakdown of early vote vs. election day explains why it was a hard lift or even means it was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lilsarg/status/1326268667747848192

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Edit: This drop obviously should of taken Pima down to 10 to 11k, but they now say they have 15.k left so there is slightly more vote out there in AZ than previously thought but in more favorable territories for Biden than everywhere else.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

he needs to win 65% of the remaining votes

[Del Tachi]

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Biden was supposed to shut the door here on Trump so not great for either. Trump loses a big chunk of remaining votes without picking up too much and now needs a higher percentage of whatever remains.

[Horus]

ahmaud arbery bump for biden?

Even without the Arbery murder this is still the type of county I'd expect a marginally better Dem performance in.

It's very similar to Beaufort county SC which also swung left, there are some retirees from up north steadily coming in who aren't quite so conservative, and there's a decent black population, as is the case for almost every county south of Forsyth.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233

They are also reporting 15,000 provisionals remaining in Pima.

Should note for folks that they typically do these counts by geographical regions (think the district level) and there are are Republican areas in Pima.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Biden was supposed to shut the door here on Trump so not great for either. Trump loses a big chunk of remaining votes without picking up too much and now needs a higher percentage of whatever remains.

That’s half the Pima stuff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Pima County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4238
Provisional ballots: 33173
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20523

Total: 57934

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 49180 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7802 from them.  He currently trails by 14468, so would finish behind by 6666 (really).

Of the estimated remaining 58K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[GP270watch]

 Arizona keeps finding votes, I look at the vote totals and it's not really shifting from one column to another. So far the remaining votes has actually increased a few times. This changes the math and keeps Trump mathematically more viable than currently stated.

[wbrocks67]

~2K more votes updated in Philly, most of which went to Biden - Biden's lead grows to +49K in PA

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Pima County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4238
Provisional ballots: 33173
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20523

Total: 57934

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 49180 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7802 from them.  He currently trails by 14468, so would finish behind by 6666 (really).

Of the estimated remaining 58K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

So nothing has really moved?

[Horus]

Arizona keeps finding votes, I look at the vote totals and it's not really shifting from one column to another. So far the remaining votes has actually increased a few times. This changes the math and keeps Trump mathematically more viable then currently stated.

Interesting how no votes have been "found" in PA or GA but they keep popping up here... anyone with a better knowledge of AZ politics know why this is?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Pima County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4238
Provisional ballots: 33173
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20523

Total: 57934

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 49180 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7802 from them.  He currently trails by 14468, so would finish behind by 6666 (really).

Of the estimated remaining 58K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

So nothing has really moved?

Nope.  As someone pointed out upthread, this wasn't a great batch for either candidate.  Trump did run well ahead of his current share in Pima, but not at the level he would need to catch up.