2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[brucejoel99]

So Biden and Kamala will not be together tonight? What is the Biden/Harris plan for tonight? Will he making a speech at a hotel or his home?

Where have you heard this? This is the only thing I could find concerning their election night plans for tonight:

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1323581877031239681


EDIT - they'll all be together tonight:

https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1322613696124866563

[brucejoel99]

I hope he isn't alone:

https://twitter.com/MoniqueOMadan/status/1323622245437243393

[brucejoel99]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night 

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

I think it's more that people want the election to be done and over with by tonight.  If Biden wins Florida (or Georgia or NC), that will almost certainly be the case. 

I think if Biden wins Florida, the election is likely over. He'd need to run the table on all of the other states, and the polls would have to be even more wrong than in 2016 for him to carry Michigan and Wisconsin again

Yeah, if Biden wins FL, then that's pretty much the end of the road for Trump. On 538's interactive map, (non-Atlas) blue Florida equates to a 99% chance of winning for Biden.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

[brucejoel99]

Does James Comey think we all forgot about the stunt he pulled in 2016?  Just because Trump's an ungrateful prick who has since shunned him doesn't mean we're taking him in.

https://twitter.com/KNOWSTONE13/status/1323638322271571969

[brucejoel99]

Per CNN: Trump indicates that he doesn’t have a victory speech or concession speech prepared.

He's going to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.

Good. Let him.

[brucejoel99]

Only 4 hours left until the first polls close!

3 hours! Some KY & IN polls close at 6pm EST (though whole states won't be closed 'til 7pm, as usual).

[brucejoel99]

From CNN: early exit polls:

What's more important?:

contain coronavirus 52%
rebuild the economy 42%

There's your ballgame.

[brucejoel99]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I wonder what that feels like.

[brucejoel99]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

[brucejoel99]

I think it’s very clear that after this election, no one is going to trust VBM and early vote again. Wouldn’t be surprised if those drop dramatically in 2022.

I mean, I would've expected that anyway given that the pandemic will more-than-likely be behind us by Nov. 2022.

[brucejoel99]

So what happened to that announcement about a NV number update being tonight instead of tomorrow morning due to high interest? Is that still happening?

[brucejoel99]

Any ideas about what the NPV might ultimately wind up looking like?  It's hard to make any judgment about trends without knowing that.

This is from 12 hours ago, so I don't know if any new updates have since served to render this analysis moot, but:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323951519541186561
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323953944016703498

[brucejoel99]

We’re on pace to have the highest turnout since 1896, about 74%.

That was William Jennings Bryan’s FIRST of three elections.

Will that be the VAP or VEP turnout rate?

[brucejoel99]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

[brucejoel99]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

I think Biden would have to win like 62% of all of those ballots but my math may be wrong

Which isn't happening, I presume? Legitimately asking (not a doomer, I promise), I haven't been able to pay as much attention to the election statistics today as I'd have liked to.

[brucejoel99]

So we really might not know until next week who wins?

If GA can be called at 3am EST tonight as some expect, we may very well know tonight.

[brucejoel99]

Thoughts on when a Pennsylvania call could be reasonably expected?

[brucejoel99]

It worries me that Pam Bondi was once a State Attorney General

How do you think we feel?

[brucejoel99]

Helpless democratic leadership energy coming from the Trump campaign.

Speaking of helpless. You’re a Democrat in Florida? How does that feel....?

Why don't you ask Senator Joe Kennedy?

RIP MillennialModerate: June 12, 2017, 03:13:07 AM - November 5, 2020, 10:45:21 AM.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff has a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

Yeah there is virtually zero chance the Dems win those runoffs. I mean zero.

This is swperste from my hardline stand on fools gold Georgia. I mean that point is the main one. You think with Georgia as close as it is would have a BETTER Dem result with a trifecta clinching majority on the line? Absolutely not. Doug Jones had better odds in Alabama.

Shush. If anybody doesn't have the right to talk about Democratic prospects in the state of Georgia, it's you.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ShonaMurray_/status/1324377573304995843

Can't run for President from a NY state prison.

[brucejoel99]

Joe is at 488K in Philly. There is *at minimum* 100K left to at least *report* in Philly.

This will be the most important message of the Trump 2024 campaign. Biden stole the election. He was a do nothing President who spent his term hiding in the basement.

Yeah, because the "he was a do nothing politician who's spent this campaign hiding in the basement" message worked out so well for him this time around.