2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 599092 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« on: November 03, 2020, 02:08:25 PM »

Per CNN: Trump indicates that he doesn’t have a victory speech or concession speech prepared.

He's going to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.


He's gotta go outside, run around 3 times, and spit.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 06:43:20 PM »

The fact they didn't call IN and KY at the top of the hour shows Trump is in serious trouble.

Pretty sure they have split poll closing times.  Not all the polls have closed in those states yet.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 08:11:43 PM »

For all those saying Biden looks good in Ohio, keep in mind that the early vote is usually massively pro-Dem.  Hillary was leading big early on in 2016 as well, but lost the state by 8 points.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 08:17:31 PM »

Wow.
Ohio is looking good for Biden so far, with 36% counted he is leading by +13.
Am I reading this data correctly.
That's huge. What am I not understanding? Only Urban votes counted so far? What?

Early vote always favors Democrats in Ohio.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 08:19:11 PM »

Hey Barkeley, your hero Josh Hicks is currently getting pounded by 7 points with only 50% in, where you at?

Are you ever not the worst?
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 08:20:38 PM »

Wow.
Ohio is looking good for Biden so far, with 36% counted he is leading by +13.
Am I reading this data correctly.
That's huge. What am I not understanding? Only Urban votes counted so far? What?

Early vote always favors Democrats in Ohio.

But it's a huge lead.
41% counted and leading by +12.
That's a large lead to overcome ... dont you think?


Hillary was leading by a similarly lopsided margin early on in 2016.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 08:21:47 PM »

Everyone freaking out about Georgia needs to chill.  Of course Republicans will have a big lead without Atlanta in yet.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 08:33:35 PM »

Everyone freaking out about Georgia needs to chill.  Of course Republicans will have a big lead without Atlanta in yet.

But NYT "Forcast Needle" takes that into consideration (do they not?).
And it shows trump's chances of winning GA at 84%.

I'm watching CBS; their model shows Biden ahead in the state.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 08:42:26 PM »

I said this about Ohio earlier, but those of you really confident about North Carolina now need to chill.  Hillary was also leading big there early on in 2016. 
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 08:50:43 PM »

Are the blue counties in VA gonna report or...

I honestly can't tell what is happening. Are blue areas just not reporting? These results are just very weird and we have no idea what is out.

Republicans are always leading in Virginia early on (and by early on, I mean until 80-90% is reporting).
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 08:53:18 PM »


The most annoying thing is people saying "so and so is ahead, that's good" overall in a state, with no context.  Like, doesn't matter if someone is up but most of their vote is already counted, or if someone is up but there's a big EV/ED split, etc.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 09:04:50 PM »

Again though: is this not the point in 2018 when people said no blue wave and then...?

FL appears to still be an isolated incident?

Like in OH, was Hillary still up double digits with 50% of the vote in?

Not quite, I think it was when 40% or so of the vote was when she began to fade.  Hard to compare that to this election yet though, given covid/more early voting/etc.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 09:24:28 PM »

Blue Kansas, Red Virginia...what even is this election?

Again, Virginia always has Republicans in the lead until pretty late in the count.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 09:49:58 PM »

Utterly bizarre how early some outlets called Virginia. Trump is *still* leading with around 50% reporting. Not that I think he'll win, but it's looking far closer than their insta-calls would seem to have suggested.

It was closer than expected in 2016, too.

Yeah, no.  That doesn't mean it'll be close.  Hillary was losing it in 2016 until 82% was reporting, and she won pretty comfortably in the end.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 09:54:29 PM »

Utterly bizarre how early some outlets called Virginia. Trump is *still* leading with around 50% reporting. Not that I think he'll win, but it's looking far closer than their insta-calls would seem to have suggested.

It was closer than expected in 2016, too.

NYT shows 43% counted.

Ah I'm going by AP.



(Not that I think Trump will win - just that it's odd it was called so early.)

It's really not odd, though.  It's a safe state.  Biden will probably win it by double digits, or close to it, in the end.  Who is leading at the time in a state shouldn't matter at all, especially if it's a safe state.  In New Jersey, for example, Republicans are often leading in the early going, but it's typically an insta-call for the Democrats.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 09:56:39 PM »


You mind repeating that?  I don't think we heard you the first 50 times.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 09:58:48 PM »


I think their model is poor and doesn't know how to weight the different voting method splits in states like MI/WI.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 10:07:12 PM »

Yep, this is 2004/1948 all over again.

Fairly unpopular incumbent mismanages a crisis (Coronavirus, Iraq war) but still manages to get reelected off of social issues (ssm, blm).

Also the biggest polling error since 1948. Nate Silver is definitely out of a job.

What a mess.

You realize Nate Silver isn't a pollster, right?  When you're designing a model based on polling + other factors and the polling is off, there's only so much you can do.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2020, 12:02:37 AM »


You're pretty annoying so far.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2020, 12:13:36 AM »


This is the problem with Biden sycophants. Every time someone's proven right about their God-Emperor's deficiences, they're ignored and told to shut up.

Don’t see Biden losing this race with AZ called and MI/WI looking good. Or do I miss something?

Trump leads significantly in Pennsylvania and Michigan and with a smaller lead in Wisconsin.

Also Iowa looks confirmed for Trump, as does NC and Iowa.

How do you come to the conclusion that MI and WI look good?

Is it because they haven't counted mail in votes yet?
YES!! For the love of god has no one been paying attention to the past 5 months and how much mail ballots were going to be a difference maker this year

If you're relying on that to save Wisconsin, you've already lost.

Yeah, but you're insufferable.  You have to understand how annoying it is to say the same thing, over and over and over and over again.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2020, 01:02:23 AM »

Does a Biden Presidency and a GOP Senate mean no stimulus checks?

Yeah. Mitch is not going to do any big bills for President Biden.

The run-off in Georgia could be huge

The top two Republican candidates combined for over 50%.

The counting isn't done yet, genius.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2020, 01:08:30 AM »

I don't see how Biden can be very confident about winning Wisconsin. What is Biden's path in WI now that Madison (Dane County) is mostly in?

Milwaukee
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2020, 01:18:20 AM »

Why is MI and WI diverging (or so it seems as of right now) so much from MN and NH? Those states don't typically vote to far off

Red mirage
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2020, 02:52:08 AM »

Without being abused can someone give me a rational case for why that stupid needle still favours Biden in Georgia?

Outstanding vote is mostly in Dem areas, and most of the vote that has been reported in those counties so far is ED, so EV should be even more favorable to Biden.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,394


« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2020, 02:53:04 AM »

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME, VA
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown regardless.

Why did you give Trump Michigan?  Or Pennsylvania, for that matter?
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