2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1323630435625218049

[GeorgiaModerate]

Folks, if the concern trolls are bugging you, put them on Ignore until at least tomorrow -- that's what I'm doing.  You won't miss a thing by not seeing their concern trolling, and it will deprive them of the attention they're seeking.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here’s my on-the-ground report from Forsyth County, Georgia, in the far northern suburbs of Atlanta.  The county is very affluent and historically very conservative; it voted 78-20 for John McCain, 81-18 for Mitt Romney, and 71-24 for Donald Trump.  The county has grown explosively in recent years; the lion’s share (but by no means all) of the growth has been in the southern half, which is in Congressional district GA-07.  This part of the county is effectively becoming an extension of the north Fulton County cities of Alpharetta, Milton, and Johns Creek, with an influx of highly educated technical and professional workers.  There has also been a strong increase in the minority population, particularly Asian-Americans.  The county’s northern part, in GA-09, is not immune to these trends, but remains much closer in some ways to its more rural neighbors to the north.  Generally, the county becomes more conservative as you go north and west.

I drove past my three nearest precincts between 11:00 and 11:30 this morning.  All of these are in the northwestern part of the county.  Going from north to south:

Precinct 15 (Heardsville), located at Sawnee Mountain Park in GA-09.  (Irrelevant aside: the park is not actually located at Sawnee Mountain, but got that name because it has a nice view of the mountain, which is a few miles southeast of the park.)  This is where I used to vote on Election Day before I switched to early voting a few years ago.  The precinct voted 80-15 for Trump and may be even more in his favor this time.  Since 2016, the county added several new precincts due to population growth and redrew the precinct lines.  Heardsville lost its southern portion (likely the least conservative) to the new Sawnee precinct.  When I drove by, the parking lot was perhaps 40% full (maybe 25-30 cars, which would include the poll workers) and there was no line.  I saw one person talking to a poll worker outside the door and another walking from the parking lot toward the building.

Precinct 37 (Sawnee), located at the Parks & Rec operations center on highway 20.  This is a new precinct, so there is no voting history.  I voted early here in the presidential primary this year.  It’s right on the boundary between GA-07 and GA-09.  There was a line of cars parked on the grass away from the main lot, which I assume belonged to the poll workers; the lot itself was sparsely occupied, perhaps 10 cars.  I saw a poll worker sitting out front and no one else.

Precinct 10 (Midway), located at Midway Park in GA-07.  This is where I used to vote early before Sawnee opened this year.  It voted 71-24 for Trump (mirroring the overall county result) but will likely be less conservative this year, since it lost its northern part in the precinct changes and has also been an area with high recent growth.  The parking lot here was packed (at least 40 cars) and there was a line of 10-12 people waiting to get in the building.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1323678662236004354

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StewB123/status/1323676964159447041

[GeorgiaModerate]

The main reason I'm optimistic about Florida is the rash of district-level polls there showing significant erosion of Trump's support.  While these didn't include all types of districts, it's very hard to see him making that up elsewhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1323658193319448576

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1323678629491056642

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/asteadwesley/status/1323690337152454662?s=21

Now THAT would be a holy crap number if true.

That's lights out for Trump in Wisconsin if it happens.  (TBF, I don't think he's particularly close there to begin with.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Tuesday as investors bet that one of the country's most divisive presidential races would end with a clear victory for Democratic nominee Joe Biden and a swift deal on more fiscal stimulus.

All 11 major S&P indexes were up in early trading, led by financial, healthcare and industrial stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-jumps-154216065.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Maybe I’ll make a doomery tracker: number of doom posts on the last 5 pages

Edit: excluding R partisans, only 2 (this includes the joeisdone.github post)

Only if you include a needle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323716736257003528

[GeorgiaModerate]

We don't know how independents will split or how many crossover R/D voters there will be, so I'm trying not to read anything into these numbers.

No, but we can make some educated guesses based on polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

I (a long-term Forsyth resident) predicted Trump 65-35 this year.  If he was held close to 60 it would be shocking, and Biden would be heavily favored to win the state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

Snip!

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

I (a long-term Forsyth resident) predicted Trump 65-35 this year.  If he was held close to 60 it would be shocking, and Biden would be heavily favored to win the state.

Would you say Forsyth is what Cobb used to be? (a solidly-Republican, relatively high-population county?)

That's not an unreasonable description, although Forsyth has always been more white and (non-Atlas) red than Cobb and will likely remain so.

To answer ExSky: I think it's at the outer edge of plausibility, a best-case scenario for Biden if everything goes right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beautiful snark here:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1323713958008791043

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/redistrict/status/1323730327458795529?s=21

Watch it be something like he bought a new fiddle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In case it hasn't been posted yet, the NYTimes portal is up.

Where are the needles?  I was told to expect needles.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In case it hasn't been posted yet, the NYTimes portal is up.

Where are the needles?  I was told to expect needles.

Only GA, FL and NC will have the needle

I know, but they're not on the page (yet?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/benyt/status/1323642175226286081

There is a zero percent chance this will ever happen.

Gillibrand might get a cabinet position, but Cuomo is not giving AOC the Senate seat. Neither him nor Schumer are afraid of her.

There's also been talk that Biden would have an "informal ban" on appointing sitting Senators to the Cabinet (as a polite way of excluding Warren and Sanders). 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Say, what happens to a rep when he or she loses his or her district to redistricting?

They'd have to run for another seat (or another office) or retire.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Watching Biden on CNN right now tell a story, I’m thinking “Man Joe I like you but this is really boring”

But then I realize that’s exactly what I want out of the President.

Ditto.  I'm hoping for a Blandslide (tm).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Watching Biden on CNN right now tell a story, I’m thinking “Man Joe I like you but this is really boring”

But then I realize that’s exactly what I want out of the President.

Make America Mundane Again.

Do you really want people saying MAMA!  MAMA! ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, here's something actually useful from Wasserman:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323738622923853825

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323739073912147968