COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[ilikeverin]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1327816877301772291

I mean, at this point we can't blame people...

Humans are social by nature, and unless the very old and sick are present, I'm fine with people celebrating their holidays together in private.

Because in much of the US right now, in a group of 10 randomly selected adults, it's more likely than not that at least one of them will have COVID, and, during the course of the meal, will infect the other nine.

So that means we should all be planning on having a distanced Thanksgiving?

Or, at least, a small one. Maybe combine 2-3 households at most, and quarantine and get tested before (and after). I have a few friends who are in self-isolation right now so they can make sure to see their families without (significant) risk. Personally, I live alone in a town I moved to three months ago, nowhere near family, so I'll probably do all my celebrations virtually. I'm sad about that, but I don't want to take the risk of infecting one of my parents.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1327816877301772291

I mean, at this point we can't blame people...

Humans are social by nature, and unless the very old and sick are present, I'm fine with people celebrating their holidays together in private.

Because in much of the US right now, in a group of 10 randomly selected adults, it's more likely than not that at least one of them will have COVID, and, during the course of the meal, will infect the other nine.

So that means we should all be planning on having a distanced Thanksgiving?

Yes. Or no Thanksgiving at all.

Should we send in some feds to check homes as well?

I mean, it's a deadly pandemic, screw their constitutional rights!

Also didn't see you tell all the Biden supporters that organized super-spreader celebrations that they're "sad".

[T'Chenka]

Gathering for cultural traditions in a non-modified way shouldn't be as important as saving lives.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1327816877301772291

I mean, at this point we can't blame people...

Humans are social by nature, and unless the very old and sick are present, I'm fine with people celebrating their holidays together in private.

Because in much of the US right now, in a group of 10 randomly selected adults, it's more likely than not that at least one of them will have COVID, and, during the course of the meal, will infect the other nine.

So that means we should all be planning on having a distanced Thanksgiving?

Yes. Or no Thanksgiving at all.

Should we send in some feds to check homes as well?

I mean, it's a deadly pandemic, screw their constitutional rights!

Also didn't see you tell all the Biden supporters that organized super-spreader celebrations that they're "sad".

This is what continues to bother me about all of this. People are being told that they can't gather with their families for Thanksgiving, and potentially Christmas. They're being told that they cannot worship in church, and there have been limitations imposed on funerals and on weddings. Trump rallies were also denounced as super spreader events. Yet there were the BLM protests and riots throughout the summer (and the protests were condoned by many public health officials), and there were the spontaneous street celebrations when Biden was officially projected as the winner. As I've made plain before, I would have no problems with holding off on or limiting social gatherings, but there ought to be a consistent standard applied to all such gatherings, and there hasn't been up to this point.

[emailking]

I don't think those demonstrations were a good idea, but there is a huge quantitative difference between outside with masks and inside, eating, with no masks.

[jamestroll]

Stop doing tests now!!!!! So we can move on with our lives.

Why should people lose their jobs because Republicans won't wear masks???

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Apparently one upside of the recent surge in cases is that it will likely hasten vaccine approval.

Moderna originally thought that they wouldn't have enough positive cases in their trial to seek emergency authorization until January, but now their believe they will reach the required number of cases within the next ten days.

Of course, this just points to the absurdity of all the vaccine companies just waiting around for enough people to be infected rather than implementing challenge trials in the first place.  Those of us very reasonably hoping for a quick vaccination timeline are actually forced to root for a surge in overall infections.

[It’s so Joever]

I’ve seen a lot of leftists on social media criticize the Biden celebrations, so not sure why you all are trying to both sides this now.

[ilikeverin]

Of course, this just points to the absurdity of all the vaccine companies just waiting around for enough people to be infected rather than implementing challenge trials in the first place.

There are huge ethical issues involved in those. We'd be deliberately exposing people to a disease for which we know we have no cure and only spotty treatments. This is made especially dire because we especially want to know how these vaccines help older adults... could you imagine a challenge trial where you give an 80-year-old COVID? Especially if you've given that 80-year-old a placebo vaccine? I don't know if it was the correct decision because ethics tends not to have correct answers, but it's a very understandable one.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Philadelphia just basically imposed a zero-tolerance measure: no indoor gatherings of ANY size, all schools and colleges online (no conditionals), no indoor dining or bars of any kind, retail stores must operate five people max per every 1000 square feet, etc. etc.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Of course, this just points to the absurdity of all the vaccine companies just waiting around for enough people to be infected rather than implementing challenge trials in the first place.

There are huge ethical issues involved in those. We'd be deliberately exposing people to a disease for which we know we have no cure and only spotty treatments. This is made especially dire because we especially want to know how these vaccines help older adults... could you imagine a challenge trial where you give an 80-year-old COVID? Especially if you've given that 80-year-old a placebo vaccine? I don't know if it was the correct decision because ethics tends not to have correct answers, but it's a very understandable one.

Nobody was suggesting involving 80-year olds in the challenger trials.  But if they are volunteers, I don't really see what the issue is.  If you support other rights related to bodily autonomy like abortion and assisted suicide, why shouldn't a person be able to volunteer to risk their health to benefit the health of millions of other people?  If it is unethical to allow volunteers for this, how is it ethical to ask for volunteers to join the military? (FWIW, I've been signed up on the list of volunteers at 1DaySooner for months.)

Remember that these trials still need people to be infected to work regardless of who is doing the infecting.  The choice is between infecting a few thousand people quickly, and just waiting around for literally millions of people to be infected slowly.

[ilikeverin]

Of course, this just points to the absurdity of all the vaccine companies just waiting around for enough people to be infected rather than implementing challenge trials in the first place.

There are huge ethical issues involved in those. We'd be deliberately exposing people to a disease for which we know we have no cure and only spotty treatments. This is made especially dire because we especially want to know how these vaccines help older adults... could you imagine a challenge trial where you give an 80-year-old COVID? Especially if you've given that 80-year-old a placebo vaccine? I don't know if it was the correct decision because ethics tends not to have correct answers, but it's a very understandable one.

Nobody was suggesting involving 80-year olds in the challenger trials.

But you'd have to if you want to make sure the vaccine worked for 80-year-olds. Otherwise we maybe have a vaccine that works fine for 20-year-olds and no one else.

But if they are volunteers, I don't really see what the issue is.  If you support other rights related to bodily autonomy like abortion and assisted suicide, why shouldn't a person be able to volunteer to risk their health to benefit the health of millions of other people?

I think the counterargument to this is that we don't want a world where people who don't volunteer are considered selfish, and we don't want a private drug company deciding which lives are worthy of sacrifice for this greater good.

  If it is unethical to allow volunteers for this, how is it ethical to ask for volunteers to join the military? (FWIW, I've been signed up on the list of volunteers at 1DaySooner for months.)

Because we pay those people, allow that to become their occupation, and (theoretically) treat them better after they've left the service, by giving them (what should be) superior healthcare and a preference in many types of employment.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1328319845012824065


Wow, this is insane.

[T'Chenka]

Gathering for cultural traditions in a non-modified way shouldn't be as important as saving lives.

People respond to the signals and standards laid out by their leadership. If we've reached a broad consensus — as it seems we have! — that the benefits of sales tax revenue from restaurants and bars exceeds the value of whatever lives would be saved by not closing them down, then surely people should be allowed to get together for the holidays too, especially if they're forced to interact with the public for eight hours a day every day anyway. Getting into a fight about whether individuals should or shouldn't have Thanksgiving, how many people should be there, that kind of thing seems to be missing the forest for the trees here.

Yes, people arguing about not letting Thanksgiving kill thousands of Americans is missing the forest for the trees, but sacrificing grandma to boost the economy isn't. Riiiight. So, when was this so-called concensus that the economy is more important than saving lives decided upon? I must have missed it. Trump and Republicans imply it, but the country as a whole does not believe that.

[GP270watch]

 I'm trying to convince my family to cancel Thanksgiving but they don't care. I think the combination of stupidity, fatigue, and good news in the distance of a vaccine have all made people complacent.

 

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm trying to convince my family to cancel Thanksgiving but they don't care. I think the combination of stupidity, fatigue, and good news in the distance of a vaccine have all made people complacent.

 

Right? I’m probably gonna get dragged along and I’m not really happy about it even though I almost certainly had Covid back in late March/early April. Maybe it’s because I’m not really that fond of most of my family?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm trying to convince my family to cancel Thanksgiving but they don't care. I think the combination of stupidity, fatigue, and good news in the distance of a vaccine have all made people complacent.

 

This part in particular is frustrating. Now is the time when taking more caution with social gatherings makes the most sense, because you only need to do so for a few more months to get to the point where the vaccine is widely available and things can safely get back to normal.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Philadelphia just basically imposed a zero-tolerance measure: no indoor gatherings of ANY size, all schools and colleges online (no conditionals), no indoor dining or bars of any kind, retail stores must operate five people max per every 1000 square feet, etc. etc.  

Based on the current case rates, this seems warranted - but Governors and Mayors who prolonged the first lockdowns well past when their regions were already doing well are about to pay a terrible price in terms of a public that is much less willing to comply.

[T'Chenka]

People respond to the signals and standards laid out by their leadership. If we've reached a broad consensus — as it seems we have! — that the benefits of sales tax revenue from restaurants and bars exceeds the value of whatever lives would be saved by not closing them down, then surely people should be allowed to get together for the holidays too, especially if they're forced to interact with the public for eight hours a day every day anyway. Getting into a fight about whether individuals should or shouldn't have Thanksgiving, how many people should be there, that kind of thing seems to be missing the forest for the trees here.

Yes, people arguing about not letting Thanksgiving kill thousands of Americans is missing the forest for the trees, but sacrificing grandma to boost the economy isn't. Riiiight. So, when was this so-called concensus that the economy is more important than saving lives decided upon? I must have missed it. Trump and Republicans imply it, but the country as a whole does not believe that.

"The country as a whole" certainly does believe that — it's why bars and restaurants have re-opened for indoor dining across the country, even in Democrat-run jurisdictions. It's stupid to hold up Thanksgiving as a crisis point that will lead to mass casualties; the rising case counts and overloaded hospitals are happening now, not because of personal acts of irresponsibility but because of collective failure on the part of government.

Lots and lots of idiots doesn't = the country as a whole

Agree with the rest, but Thanksgiving IS an even more extreme crisis point than the one America is already at.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At least two members of the US House of Representatives announced Monday that they tested positive for Covid-19 and another member announced he was isolating after possibly being exposed, a sign of the looming threat of coronavirus on Capitol Hill.

Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois and Republican Rep. Tim Walberg of Michigan each separately announced positive diagnoses and Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin said publicly he was isolating after a possible exposure to the virus. The announcements mark the latest of more than two dozen lawmakers who have tested positive for Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/politics/lawmakers-members-covid-19-congress/index.html

[It’s so Joever]

It’s terrible.
Our hospitals are getting close to being completely overloaded.
Even worse, many healthcare workers are getting sick and that means they can’t treat patients.
Please stay healthy in all aspects, (so like try not to break a limb). You may not be able to get hospital treatment at all this winter.
Although the average ICU stay is currently less time than it was in March, much of that is due to better treatment. And when we run out of either treatment or healthcare workers to administer that treatment...well it’s back to square one.
Be prepared, this is actually hitting nuclear levels.


And for those of you who still need more proof to accept the severity of this catastrophe...don’t worry you will get some proof soon, and there will be no turning back the clocks. To anyone who tried to downplay this virus...I hope you read this post on March and think back to what could have been had you and people like you acted like rational human beings. It’s too late now, you reap what you sow.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/16 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/8: <Sunday>

• Cases: 10,288,480 (+105,662 | ΔW Change: ↑48.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 243,768 (+511 | ΔW Change: ↑28.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

11/9: <M>

• Cases: 10,421,956 (+133,476 | ΔW Change: ↑43.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 244,448 (+680 | ΔW Change: ↑32.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

11/10: <T>

• Cases: 10,559,184 (+137,228 | ΔW Change: ↑8.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 245,799 (+1,351 | ΔW Change: ↓19.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/11: <W>

• Cases: 10,708,728 (+149,544 | ΔW Change: ↑38.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 247,398 (+1,599 | ΔW Change: ↑36.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

11/12: <Þ>

• Cases: 10,873,936 (+165,208 | ΔW Change: ↑39.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 248,585 (+1,187 | ΔW Change: ↑5.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

11/13: <F>

• Cases: 11,064,364 (+190,428 | ΔW Change: ↑36.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.75%)
• Deaths: 249,975 (+1,390 | ΔW Change: ↑8.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

11/14: <S>

• Cases: 11,226,038 (+161,674 | ΔW Change: ↑30.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 251,256 (+1,281 | ΔW Change: ↑24.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

11/15 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
• Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

[Dr. Arch]

There is no end in sight for this upswing. I shudder to think what's going to happen a week or two after Thanksgiving.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

There is no end in sight for this upswing. I shudder to think what's going to happen a week or two after Thanksgiving.

It does look like it *might* be decelerating at least (week-over-week percentage changes seem to be getting marginally less catastrophic), though we need probably another week of data to be confident with that, as things can be pretty noisy. And obviously we need to do better than just decelerating toward linear growth, we need to actually have the week-over-week numbers dropping.

But yeah, with the raw numbers as high as they are, and especially with hospitalizations continuing to set records, things do look pretty bleak.

[T'Chenka]

There is no end in sight for this upswing. I shudder to think what's going to happen a week or two after Thanksgiving.

I don't think most people realize how bad this could get. 5,000+ deaths per day or even higher is a real possibility (2,000+ COVID, 3,000+ needed emergency medical attention and could not get it) if hospital systems start collapsing all over the country.