COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

Why does every anti-lockdown rally have to have people walking with Confederate flags?

https://bronx.news12.com/business-owners-march-in-protest-of-gov-murphys-new-restrictions

Because we are just itching to rebel against our insane dictators.

Don’t you have a god to ignore and a communist to worship?

[jamestroll]

Has California banned outdoor gatherings to riot and burn down buildings as well?

Or is that still an exception along with essential grocery store trips to big corporate chains only?

[jamestroll]

Please don't believe rumors about me from aad. I do not tie up and tickle guys.

[DINGO Joe]

Please don't believe rumors about me from aad. I do not tie up and tickle guys.

As long as you wear a mask and take other safety precautions, we're not here to judge you.

[jamestroll]

I support mask mandates. Supported them in spring.

No conventions. Until well into next year.

Closure of bars except take out.

Restaurants outdoor dining and take out only. I guess I can buy into very limited indoor dining.

Spa Services allowed with PPE

And a small stimulus to make up lost wages of the fewer impacted workers than the national lockdown would create.

Yet I am the crazy out of control psycho?

[Suburbia]

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy was heckled last night at a diner by anti-maskers

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1330695619493638146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/15: <Sunday>

• Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
• Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>

• Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>

• Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>

• Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
• Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>

• Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>

• Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>

• Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
• Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
• Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

[Virginiá]

Damn, it's like, I don't know, projection or something

https://twitter.com/dpakman/status/1330998265693802497

Literally incapable of imagining an opposition that doesn't think like you

[T'Chenka]

Damn, it's like, I don't know, projection or something

https://twitter.com/dpakman/status/1330998265693802497

Literally incapable of imagining an opposition that doesn't think like you

I didn't know you liked / followed / read David Pakman!

Virginia is woke / based / etc etc.

[T'Chenka]

Jimmie having a normal one.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Data from Europe, but should be same'ish in US as well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-deaths-in-europe-are-overwhelmingly-among-those-over-60-11606053600
Covid Deaths in Europe Are Overwhelmingly Among Those Over 60
Survival rates improve modestly, but disease still takes the elderly, and more men

LONDON—Europe’s older citizens are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave in the region.

People over 60 make up more than nine in 10 fatalities linked to Covid-19 since the start of August, figures show, with more men than women succumbing to it. The virus has now claimed more than 1.3 million lives world-wide.

The pattern, similar to that observed in Europe’s first wave of the pandemic as well as in the U.S., highlights the danger the virus continues to pose to older age groups and the difficulty of shielding the most vulnerable if the pandemic spreads more broadly, researchers say.

The policy conclusion: If the virus gets out of control in the community, there isn’t a practical way to prevent older people from catching it.

Doctors say they are seeing modest improvements in survival rates among all age groups, as their armory of treatments expands and their knowledge of the disease deepens.

“On the ground, the demographic is pretty similar to what it was,” said Tom Wingfield, an infectious-disease physician in Liverpool, England. “But people are having better outcomes,” he said.

Demographic data on all deaths in Europe isn’t available. But an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of around 78,000 deaths in an ECDC database of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 shows that in both the first and second waves more than 90% of deaths were in those age 60 and over.

Those over 80 years old account for a slightly higher proportion of second-wave deaths, with 67% of fatalities in that age group from Aug. 3 to Nov. 15. That compares with 60% for the year through July 31. Men made up 56% of all deaths across both waves.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden 5 days ago:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/526787-biden-vows-he-will-not-implement-a-nationwide-shutdown
Biden vows he will not implement a nationwide shutdown

"I’m not going to shut down the economy, period. I’m going to shut down the virus," Biden said. "I’ll say it again. No national shutdown."

[...]

“We discussed the implementation of a national mask mandate — 10 governors, Democrats and Republicans, have imposed requirements and recognized the need for universal masking,” Biden said. “North, south, east and west. It’s not a political statement. It’s a patriotic duty.”

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A shut down would be pretty pointless by the time Biden gets into office, since at that point a majority of the most at-risk and most exposed populations should have had the opportunity to been vaccinated.

[Beet]

Data from Europe, but should be same'ish in US as well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-deaths-in-europe-are-overwhelmingly-among-those-over-60-11606053600
Covid Deaths in Europe Are Overwhelmingly Among Those Over 60
Survival rates improve modestly, but disease still takes the elderly, and more men

LONDON—Europe’s older citizens are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave in the region.

People over 60 make up more than nine in 10 fatalities linked to Covid-19 since the start of August, figures show, with more men than women succumbing to it. The virus has now claimed more than 1.3 million lives world-wide.

The pattern, similar to that observed in Europe’s first wave of the pandemic as well as in the U.S., highlights the danger the virus continues to pose to older age groups and the difficulty of shielding the most vulnerable if the pandemic spreads more broadly, researchers say.

The policy conclusion: If the virus gets out of control in the community, there isn’t a practical way to prevent older people from catching it.

Doctors say they are seeing modest improvements in survival rates among all age groups, as their armory of treatments expands and their knowledge of the disease deepens.

“On the ground, the demographic is pretty similar to what it was,” said Tom Wingfield, an infectious-disease physician in Liverpool, England. “But people are having better outcomes,” he said.

Demographic data on all deaths in Europe isn’t available. But an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of around 78,000 deaths in an ECDC database of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 shows that in both the first and second waves more than 90% of deaths were in those age 60 and over.

Those over 80 years old account for a slightly higher proportion of second-wave deaths, with 67% of fatalities in that age group from Aug. 3 to Nov. 15. That compares with 60% for the year through July 31. Men made up 56% of all deaths across both waves.

Statistically, one average death from Covid-19 is probably equal to about 1/5th-1/10th of a death in a normal epidemic in terms of years of life lost.

[Pericles]

Biden 5 days ago:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/526787-biden-vows-he-will-not-implement-a-nationwide-shutdown
Biden vows he will not implement a nationwide shutdown

"I’m not going to shut down the economy, period. I’m going to shut down the virus," Biden said. "I’ll say it again. No national shutdown."

[...]

“We discussed the implementation of a national mask mandate — 10 governors, Democrats and Republicans, have imposed requirements and recognized the need for universal masking,” Biden said. “North, south, east and west. It’s not a political statement. It’s a patriotic duty.”

A 'national' lockdown is too rigid given the size of the US and how different the states are. Some states really should be in lockdown now though.

[Fargobison]

A shut down would be pretty pointless by the time Biden gets into office, since at that point a majority of the most at-risk and most exposed populations should have had the opportunity to been vaccinated.

Biden's main job is going to be getting people to take the vaccine. The double dose makes it tougher since it sounds like the it is going to come with some moderate symptoms that could make people feel like crap for a day or two.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/15: <Sunday>

• Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
• Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>

• Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>

• Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>

• Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
• Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>

• Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>

• Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>

• Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
• Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22: <Sunday>

• Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
• Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Data from Europe, but should be same'ish in US as well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-deaths-in-europe-are-overwhelmingly-among-those-over-60-11606053600
Covid Deaths in Europe Are Overwhelmingly Among Those Over 60
Survival rates improve modestly, but disease still takes the elderly, and more men

LONDON—Europe’s older citizens are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave in the region.

People over 60 make up more than nine in 10 fatalities linked to Covid-19 since the start of August, figures show, with more men than women succumbing to it. The virus has now claimed more than 1.3 million lives world-wide.

The pattern, similar to that observed in Europe’s first wave of the pandemic as well as in the U.S., highlights the danger the virus continues to pose to older age groups and the difficulty of shielding the most vulnerable if the pandemic spreads more broadly, researchers say.

The policy conclusion: If the virus gets out of control in the community, there isn’t a practical way to prevent older people from catching it.

Doctors say they are seeing modest improvements in survival rates among all age groups, as their armory of treatments expands and their knowledge of the disease deepens.

“On the ground, the demographic is pretty similar to what it was,” said Tom Wingfield, an infectious-disease physician in Liverpool, England. “But people are having better outcomes,” he said.

Demographic data on all deaths in Europe isn’t available. But an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of around 78,000 deaths in an ECDC database of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 shows that in both the first and second waves more than 90% of deaths were in those age 60 and over.

Those over 80 years old account for a slightly higher proportion of second-wave deaths, with 67% of fatalities in that age group from Aug. 3 to Nov. 15. That compares with 60% for the year through July 31. Men made up 56% of all deaths across both waves.

Statistically, one average death from Covid-19 is probably equal to about 1/5th-1/10th of a death in a normal epidemic in terms of years of life lost.

Perhaps, even less so. The average life expectancy at the age of 80 is ~8 years in US (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7565998/), but those who die are NOT average. I wouldn't be surprise, if most of them hade 0-2 years life expectancy (~1 year on average, perhaps?).

It is just my speculation, though. We'll find it out in years to come. What we already know, though, is how poor kids effected of (D) school closure throughout the rest of their lives.

TDS cost kids' future.


https://twitter.com/hannah_natanson/status/1331236497308180480
https://twitter.com/hannah_natanson/status/1331238704099291140


And if you think, the kids will catch up... most/large share of the most vulnerable won't. There are a lot of rigorous studies that say that damage will be permanent. It will lead to more drop-outs, worse marks, worse academic and job carrier and overall a worse quality of life for (tens of???) millions kids. It means also shorter life expectancy. And the more time schools are closed, the more damage and the more difficult for kids to catch up.

Especially for poor kids.
Especially for minority kids.
Especially for kids with disabilities.
Especially with Math and English, two arguably most important subjects.

With other words it won't significantly effect the kids of White Wealthy Libs (that is the owners of Democrat Party), but it will effect greatly the kids of the backbone of the Democrat Party.

Remember, it didn't need to be like that. It didn't happen at such large scale in Europe in Spring, despite them being hit much harder than US. And that didn't happen in Europe after summer school breaks at all. Science (at least since May/June) say it should NOT be happening. It was a political decision against Science. All this is due to #resist Bad Orange's call to reopen schools. If you voted for these people, it's on you. No ifs or buts.

[T'Chenka]

Jesus Christ on a cracker, we have a Russian agent in here spreading propaganda about schools closing or going on line causing children to lose years off of their lives. Can you please miss us with that s__t, Russian Puppet? Nobody's buying what you're selling. At least have the courage to start a seperate thread about it so that the community can notice it and mock you for it. If you really believe that stuff, own it and start a thread.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What does this idiot argue against?

That school closure leads to higher rate of failing in school (esp Math and Reading)?
That higher rate of failing in school leads to lower college/high-school enrollment and/or worse job opportunities?
That lower college/high-school enrollment/worse job leads to worse quality of life?
That worse quality of life leads to lower life expectancy?

Ugh, these LiberalX...

[jamestroll]

I'm okay to pass a mini stimulus for lost wages in case some states have to lock down but nothing more.

I'm not trying to encourage states to lock down.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

What does this idiot argue against?

That school closure leads to higher rate of failing in school (esp Math and Reading)?
That higher rate of failing in school leads to lower college/high-school enrollment and/or worse job opportunities?
That lower college/high-school enrollment/worse job leads to worse quality of life?
That worse quality of life leads to lower life expectancy?

Ugh, these LiberalX...

I don't get how people don't acknowledge this side of the argument.  "Russian propaganda!" they all cry.  Anti-American forces would love us to keep locked down with everyone going insane until the country does tear itself apart, not so much if just a few old people die before their time. 

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the latest poll on who's willing to get a vaccine when it's available:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy5um9f1tw/econTabReport.pdf

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1331647643970367489

Looks like the numbers have been gradually increasing over the last few months.  E.g., here's the same poll in September:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=402803.msg7581075#msg7581075

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=402803.msg7581075#msg7581075

So far I'm only up to the part where they ask for views on China. I'm shocked that the Democrats have become so pro-China.

When did the Democrats become the pro-China party?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's the latest poll on who's willing to get a vaccine when it's available:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy5um9f1tw/econTabReport.pdf

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1331647643970367489

Looks like the numbers have been gradually increasing over the last few months.  E.g., here's the same poll in September:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=402803.msg7581075#msg7581075

This is a weird split.  Is it a Q-Anon thing?

White Women, College 60/12 (+48)
White Men, College 64/20 (+44)
White Men, No deg 51/27 (+24)
White Women, No deg 40/31 (+9) (?!?)

Also, why are they only polling registered voters???  Especially after the election!