COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

One thing to be at least a bit optimistic about is it seems like at least the rate of growth of new cases may have been going down somewhat at least over the past day or 2, so at least we may not be accelerating further than we already were. If we are lucky, maybe that is a real trend change, and not just a blip.

On the other hand:

a) I wonder if this might have partly to do with weather. It seems like in a lot of areas it warmed up a bit temporarily around 7-10 days or so ago (approximately coincident with the lag time for new cases to be expected to show up) but then got cooler again. To the degree that there is a relation between temperature and spread (this definitely seems to be the case) that may be partially responsible, and we should worry about current spread with lower temperatures.

b) At a certain point the number of tests starts to be a constraint in at least some areas, despite the overall increases in test availability since the early days of the pandemic. There are some states especially in the plains/upper midwest with very high positivity rates, where they would keep on finding more cases if they were not running into testing capacity issues with very high positivity rates. The higher the positivity rates get, the more this becomes a relevant factor.

[Hnv1]

This Wednesday is going to be above 2k

Well. That was sadly accurate

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

One thing to be at least a bit optimistic about is it seems like at least the rate of growth of new cases may have been going down somewhat at least over the past day or 2, so at least we may not be accelerating further than we already were. If we are lucky, maybe that is a real trend change, and not just a blip.

On the other hand:

a) I wonder if this might have partly to do with weather. It seems like in a lot of areas it warmed up a bit temporarily around 7-10 days or so ago (approximately coincident with the lag time for new cases to be expected to show up) but then got cooler again. To the degree that there is a relation between temperature and spread (this definitely seems to be the case) that may be partially responsible, and we should worry about current spread with lower temperatures.

b) At a certain point the number of tests starts to be a constraint in at least some areas, despite the overall increases in test availability since the early days of the pandemic. There are some states especially in the plains/upper midwest with very high positivity rates, where they would keep on finding more cases if they were not running into testing capacity issues with very high positivity rates. The higher the positivity rates get, the more this becomes a relevant factor.

Probably herd immunity starts to kick in. US herd immunity is ~15% right now. In SD and ND for example it's ~25% (40% in ~2 weeks), while it's just 10% in WY.

If you assume that R with ~moderate restriction is R_moderate~1.3 than R_eff in SD and ND is 1.3*0.75 ~<1, while in WY R_eff~1.3*0.9 = 1.2


Data is taken from a site recommended by Nate Silver.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1329223132159356928

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Racist Anti-Poor School Closure

https://www.unicef.org/media/86881/file/Averting-a-lost-covid-generation-world-childrens-day-data-and-advocacy-brief-2020.pdf
Averting a lost COVID generation

Keeping schools open  during the current COVID-19 resurgence

As some countries experience a resurgence in COVID-19 infection, discussion has been raised recently on whether schools should be closed again.20 Evidence shows that the net benefits of keeping schools open outweigh the costs of closing them. 

Schools are not a main driver of community transmission. Data from 191 countries collected from February to September 2020 show no consistent association between school reopening status and COVID-19 infection rates.21 An assessment of the role of schools in COVID-19 transmission was conducted by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in 31 countries in July 2020. It concluded that child-to-child transmission in schools was uncommon and not the primary cause of COVID-19 in children who were infected during the time they attended school.22 However, it is important to note that higher education institutions have played a role in community transmission in many countries.

Children are more likely to get the virus outside of school settings. There is a much higher risk of children being infected with COVID-19 if there is an outbreak in the community. A study by the British Government found that infection rates among students and teachers did not increase following school reopenings in the summer and that localized outbreaks correlated with regional outbreaks, not with school opening.23 Data released by Brown University show low levels of infection among students and teachers in the United States. Tracking infections over two weeks from 31 August when schools began to reopen, it shows that only 0.77 per cent of students and 0.16 per cent of school staff had a confirmed or suspected case of the coronavirus.24 In addition, schools have put in place important mitigation measures to reduce transmission risks. These efforts should continue to be supported.

School closures can lead to drastically negative outcomes for children. Closing schools exposes children to multiple risks. The longer schools are closed, the more children suffer from extensive learning losses with long- term negative impacts, including future income and health. Depending on their age, gender, and disability or socio-economic status many children (especially adolescents) do not return to school after long closures and many more are expected to suffer permanent losses to their learning. In addition, children rely on schools for nutrition, psychosocial support and health services.

While it's more about low-income countries, it applies to poorer, often minority share of US.

Basically all European Countries, including such heavily hit as France, UK, Netherlands, Sweden and Belgium keep their school open as much as possible. France has almost 3 times more death/per capita on weekly basis than US.

Seven-day rolling average of new deaths (per million)
France - 8.7
USA - 3.5
NY - 1.4 (sic!)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-coronavirus-surge-european-schools-stay-open-11605349800
Despite Coronavirus Surge, European Schools Stay Open
Most of Europe sees large downsides to shutting schools again, despite the risk of more infections

While schools in some U.S. states are going back to remote learning, European countries are mostly persevering with open schools despite high coronavirus infection rates, believing—for now—that the cost to children of closing classrooms outweighs the health risks.

In parts of the U.S., many schools that shut down in the spring never reopened, and others are closing again. New York City is also poised to close schools if cases continue to rise.

By contrast, by the end of September schools across Europe had reopened, and most governments are determined to keep it that way—even though the continent is grappling with a powerful second wave of infections.

Part of the reason is that it is unclear how effective closing schools really is, with scientific studies reaching different conclusions about how important students and teachers are in driving contagion. Meanwhile, policy makers have concluded that the social damage caused by prolonged school closures was too much to bear, particularly for less-privileged families with working parents.

Stop lying that Wealthy White Virtue Signaling Democrats (whose children goes to luxurious private schools) care about poor and minorities. They don't.

New York City is closing its entire public school system BEFORE closing gyms, bars and inside restaurants open (though with restriction and probably soon to be closed). Most private will remain open.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/outrage-nyc-schools-closed-covid

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's still early and a lot of states haven't reported anything yet but man today's numbers do not look good at all.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/CBSDFW/status/1328104611794841601

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1238862970878377984

[brucejoel99]

The CDC is evidently starting to feel as if they're able to actually do their jobs again:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1329476104067952641

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just saw that Pfizer is submitting its vaccine TOMORROW...

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-11-18/pfizer-biontech-to-file-for-emergency-use-of-coronavirus-vaccine-on-friday

Pfizer also said that it will ship out the vaccine within hours of FDA approval. Not weeks. Not days. Hours...

https://nypost.com/2020/11/19/pfizer-ready-to-ship-covid-19-vaccine-within-hours-of-approval

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1328904038520418305
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-year-trump-says-experts-n1207411
Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a 'miracle' to be right.
“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” one expert said.

“I think we’re going to have a vaccine by the end of the year,” he told reporters later in the day.

But experts say that the development, testing and production of a vaccine for the public is still at least 12 to 18 months off, and that anything less would be a medical miracle.

“I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

[...]

Dr. Walter Orenstein, a professor at Emory University and the associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said a vaccine in less than a year would be “miracle.”

While technically possible, he added, it is unlikely.

“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” Orenstein said.

Dr. Stanley Plotkin, credited with inventing a rubella vaccine in 1964, said developing a vaccine in a year to a year and half was “feasible,” but dependent on the efficacy of the vaccines currently in development and on the ability to mass produce them.

“In the best of circumstances, we should have a vaccine — or let's say vaccines — between 12 and 18 months," he said. "Whether those circumstances will be the best or not, we don’t know."

https://twitter.com/carolynryan/status/1328790546979106818

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-covid-surge-u-s-restrictions-11605466754
Covid Is Resurging, and This Time It’s Everywhere
Pervasive spread in smaller communities fuels nationwide case record, though mortality rates are lower than in the spring

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1328904038520418305
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-year-trump-says-experts-n1207411
Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a 'miracle' to be right.
“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” one expert said.

“I think we’re going to have a vaccine by the end of the year,” he told reporters later in the day.

But experts say that the development, testing and production of a vaccine for the public is still at least 12 to 18 months off, and that anything less would be a medical miracle.

“I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

[...]

Dr. Walter Orenstein, a professor at Emory University and the associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said a vaccine in less than a year would be “miracle.”

While technically possible, he added, it is unlikely.

“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” Orenstein said.

Dr. Stanley Plotkin, credited with inventing a rubella vaccine in 1964, said developing a vaccine in a year to a year and half was “feasible,” but dependent on the efficacy of the vaccines currently in development and on the ability to mass produce them.

“In the best of circumstances, we should have a vaccine — or let's say vaccines — between 12 and 18 months," he said. "Whether those circumstances will be the best or not, we don’t know."

There's nothing new here. The Trump War Room tweet is disingenuous. I've heard many experts say that a vaccine might be developed this year but it would not become available until sometime next year. And that's what's going to happen.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Vaccinating just 20 million people within the next month should have a huge effect if we can correctly coordinate who to vaccinate.  I believe the oldest 6% of our population is responsible for about 60% of covid deaths.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's still early and a lot of states haven't reported anything yet but man today's numbers do not look good at all.

Did some rough calculations and 185K seems like an optimistic minimum for how many cases we'll end up with today. Will probably be worse, though.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/11/18/state-sanctioned-segregation-californias-school-closure-debate-boils-over-1336593
‘State-sanctioned segregation’: California’s school closure debate boils over

Pandemic politics have reached a boiling point in California’s school reopening debate.

A hands-off approach by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and public pressure from powerful labor unions has led the state’s biggest city districts to keep schools shuttered, leaving most of California’s 6 million public schoolchildren learning at home. Even San Francisco, which has had one of the lowest infection rates for any U.S. city, hasn’t attempted in-person teaching.

As the pandemic wears on, more Democrats are sounding the alarm after staying silent earlier this fall. They are increasingly distressed that California's approach has widened the gap between low-income communities of color and wealthier white families.

Frustrations hit a new level in October, when Newsom said his own children had returned to private school in Sacramento — while public school students in the surrounding neighborhoods remained home. Now leaders in the governor's own party are turning on him, saying the status quo has left the state with crisis-level inequity.

California's system amounts to "state-sanctioned segregation," Patrick O'Donnell (D-Long Beach), the chair of the state Assembly Education Committee, said in an interview — a frank declaration for a Democrat consistently supported by the California Teachers Association.

“Some kids get to go and some don’t. That's not what California stands for," he said. “I think we need to move faster but remain thoughtful.”

Well, if he said it before the election, I'd respect him. As I were saying for weeks now, White Wealthy Libs has been screwing poor/minority kids to screw Trump. Gee, most people of this forum didn't give a  either, though. The few people that shared my concerns were from Europe...

A lost generation of millions of kids.

The debate is complicated in the nation's most populous state, where the divide between rich and poor remains stark. For all of the wealth concentrated in the Silicon Valley and Hollywood, nearly 60 percent of California public schoolchildren live in low-income households that qualify for subsidized meals. Districts are reporting sharp increases in students failing, especially in lower-income neighborhoods.

Gee, Hollywood.

The most bluest (populous) states CA and NY are the ones who screwing poor kids most. Would be ironic and fun, if i wasn't so god damn terrible.

[ilikeverin]

Vaccinating just 20 million people within the next month should have a huge effect if we can correctly coordinate who to vaccinate.  I believe the oldest 6% of our population is responsible for about 60% of covid deaths.

There seems to be general consensus that the first doses will be given to healthcare workers, which I think makes complete sense.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Vaccinating just 20 million people within the next month should have a huge effect if we can correctly coordinate who to vaccinate.  I believe the oldest 6% of our population is responsible for about 60% of covid deaths.

There seems to be general consensus that the first doses will be given to healthcare workers, which I think makes complete sense.

Yeah, I have no objection to this.  I suppose it comes down to whether you are trying to minimize lives losts vs. years of lives lost, and the latter makes sense to me.

Though I wonder if they will exclude people already infected from early vaccination.  It would be a shame to waste a scarce vaccine on someone who is already 99%+ likely to be immune.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/8: <Sunday>

• Cases: 10,288,480 (+105,662 | ΔW Change: ↑48.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 243,768 (+511 | ΔW Change: ↑28.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

11/9: <M>

• Cases: 10,421,956 (+133,476 | ΔW Change: ↑43.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 244,448 (+680 | ΔW Change: ↑32.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

11/10: <T>

• Cases: 10,559,184 (+137,228 | ΔW Change: ↑8.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 245,799 (+1,351 | ΔW Change: ↓19.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/11: <W>

• Cases: 10,708,728 (+149,544 | ΔW Change: ↑38.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 247,398 (+1,599 | ΔW Change: ↑36.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

11/12: <Þ>

• Cases: 10,873,936 (+165,208 | ΔW Change: ↑39.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 248,585 (+1,187 | ΔW Change: ↑5.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

11/13: <F>

• Cases: 11,064,364 (+190,428 | ΔW Change: ↑36.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.75%)
• Deaths: 249,975 (+1,390 | ΔW Change: ↑8.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

11/14: <S>

• Cases: 11,226,038 (+161,674 | ΔW Change: ↑30.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 251,256 (+1,281 | ΔW Change: ↑24.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

11/15: <Sunday>

• Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
• Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>

• Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>

• Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
• Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

[Dr. Arch]

[emailking]

• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

My grandmother is in this set unfortunately.

[Dr. Arch]

Quote from: Arch on November 19, 2020, 7:58:07 PM

• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

My grandmother is in this set unfortunately. [/list]

I'm so sorry for your loss, my friend.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The next few weeks are going to be just unbelievably tragic.

[Beet]

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday that he won’t support extending several of the emergency loan programs his agency set up with the Federal Reserve that are set to expire at the end of the year.

In a letter to the Fed, Mnuchin said the Fed’s innovative lending program for small- and medum-sized businesses would not be extended. He also said he wouldn’t extend the Fed’s municipal lending and corporate credit loan programs.

In a statement, the Fed said that it opposed Mnuchin’s decision. Under the law, the Treasury secretary must agree in order for the programs to continue.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-pulls-plug-on-some-coronavirus-emergency-lending-programs-over-feds-objections-11605826491

[Badger]

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday that he won’t support extending several of the emergency loan programs his agency set up with the Federal Reserve that are set to expire at the end of the year.

In a letter to the Fed, Mnuchin said the Fed’s innovative lending program for small- and medum-sized businesses would not be extended. He also said he wouldn’t extend the Fed’s municipal lending and corporate credit loan programs.

In a statement, the Fed said that it opposed Mnuchin’s decision. Under the law, the Treasury secretary must agree in order for the programs to continue.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-pulls-plug-on-some-coronavirus-emergency-lending-programs-over-feds-objections-11605826491

In short, f*** Biden from the get-go

[jamestroll]

I can not wait until this BS is over. I can be in harmony with the left again.

I really only dissent from the left on two issues:

1) Lockdowns

2) Mass gatherings to burn down buildings and riot.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can not wait until this BS is over. I can be in harmony with the left again.

I really only dissent from the left on two issues:

1) Lockdowns

2) Mass gatherings to burn down buildings and riot.

There's a Reddit forum called "LockdownCriticalLeft" which is designed for people on the left who oppose lockdowns. It's actually somewhat popular.