COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

43% of nationwide deaths are linked to nursing homes. Honestly, maybe that's a big part of the reason why Arizona, Florida and Texas aren't seeing a corresponding increase in deaths - their governors aren't sending positive patients to them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1276971915480088577

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1277008820066226176

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1276971915480088577

I cannot properly convey my contempt for these people.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1277008820066226176

Apparently the Nevada number is the result of a data delay error, and includes about 600 cases that should have been reported on Tuesday or Wednesday.  It’s still close to a record without them.

But as with many states, cases have been rising there for about 4 weeks, and their death rate has remained steady at around 3 deaths per day.

[emailking]

For a wave to end, the numbers have to plateau at a low non-zero number for a while, and then start a new curve. The U.S. never managed to do that to begin with.

Still subjective though. What's low? What's a plateau? It's not a formal term (wave) as far as I'm aware.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time. Honestly, how much is too much?

I can see where a mask would have some usefulness in very high risk situations, but is it really necessary to wear it all the time? I've experimented, and I can't go more than a few minutes without it being hard to breathe.

I can appreciate it on some very crowded mass transit vehicles I've been on, but not in low risk situations.

[Dr. Arch]

For a wave to end, the numbers have to plateau at a low non-zero number for a while, and then start a new curve. The U.S. never managed to do that to begin with.

Still subjective though. What's low? What's a plateau? It's not a formal term (wave) as far as I'm aware.

The EU is a good example of a wave that's ended. The subjectivity is relative to the peak, for sure. In a normalized curve, I would define a low at <+3 SDs from the peak.

[emailking]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time. Honestly, how much is too much?

I can see where a mask would have some usefulness in very high risk situations, but is it really necessary to wear it all the time? I've experimented, and I can't go more than a few minutes without it being hard to breathe.

I can appreciate it on some very crowded mass transit vehicles I've been on, but not in low risk situations.

We don't expect you to wear a mask if you have a medical condition that makes it impractical. I can wear the mask for like an hour before it becomes bothersome to me. You should wear it all of the time indoors (if not your residence) unless you are in a private enclosed area by yourself, like in an office. You should wear it outside if you're going to be close to others you don't live with.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time. Honestly, how much is too much?

I can see where a mask would have some usefulness in very high risk situations, but is it really necessary to wear it all the time? I've experimented, and I can't go more than a few minutes without it being hard to breathe.

I can appreciate it on some very crowded mass transit vehicles I've been on, but not in low risk situations.

Funny, you were all for masks as an alternative to the lockdowns, but now that we are looking into that, you are weaseling out of your previous position. It’s almost as if you just don’t care about the virus at all nor the people affected by it.
On a side note, at first masks do feel like that. The first time I wore one, I felt the same sensation. It does take getting used to. If you have underlying respiratory conditions, that also could be a cause of some of your issues.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1276971915480088577

I cannot properly convey my contempt for these people.

These workers (and trump) should be thrown in jail.
Just amazing. Unbelievable.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Funny, you were all for masks as an alternative to the lockdowns

I was??? I never supported mandatory mask laws.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time.

What the hell does that nonsense even mean? Is there anyone out there saying that people should wear masks in their houses? If not, then you are just babbling.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time.

What the hell does that nonsense even mean? Is there anyone out there saying that people should wear masks in their houses? If not, then you are just babbling.

About a month ago, I actually saw an article saying people should wear masks when home alone.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time.

What the hell does that nonsense even mean? Is there anyone out there saying that people should wear masks in their houses? If not, then you are just babbling.

About a month ago, I actually saw an article saying people should wear masks when home alone.

No you didn't. You are just making sh**t up.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27 (Today):

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

[DabbingSanta]

These past few months have definitely changed my perspective on things. You got a fair number of people advocating for economic destruction, erosion of civil liberties, and downright anarchy and it's become totally normalized by the MSM. I should note that these people may not realize that's what they are advocating for, either. They may be otherwise totally normal and rational people. Hell, it's totally rational to want to shut down society if you believe the narrative and think this bug is the new Black Death. What the media is keeping quiet from you is that the actual estimated death rate (by the CDC) has been revised down to 0.3%, not the 2-3% originally reported. And given the huge number of reported cases, it's very possible a significant number of us have already had coronavirus and did not even know about it.

Call me a quack all you want, but what would you think if you were reading your own posts from now at this time last year? I don't buy that whole "new normal" BS. We have survived world wars, depressions, other pandemics, terrorism, racial violence, and more. The vast majority of us will survive this and society will recover and learn better ways to prevent the spread of disease.

I know one person who tested positive and four others who had symptoms. It's definitely a bad illness and you don't want to get it, but it is so established now in our communities that we need to sit back and let it take its course. We can't just hide in our homes forever. My advice is simple. Keep your distance, wash your hands, wear a mask if it makes you feel better, and move on. I have asthma and I'm not taking my chances, but I'm not going to go around and advocate for the government to intrude in our lives. This thing needs to play out and take its course. If you are young and healthy, you don't have much to worry about. The big concern is avoiding it so you don't spread it to more vulnerable populations in your social circle.

Source on the CDC thing: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The theory of the virus having mutated to become less deadly is looking more plausible than it was a couple weeks ago.  I believe an Italian doctor has been speculating about that for a while now.

It is in principle entirely possible "the virus" could have mutated to be less deadly (viruses mutate all the time, though most mutations don't have significant effects), but think carefully for a moment about what it means if "the virus" mutates.

First of all, there is actually no such thing as "the virus." There are virii (plural).

If virus in one person mutates in a certain way, it doesn't suddenly/magically also get the same mutation.

A mutation only spreads through the population if it does so over an extended period of time, by transmitting and infecting new hosts, and them then infecting others.

And at least as importantly, what happens to all the other non-mutated virii in the meantime? They should continue to spread amongst the population . The non-mutated virii don't simply all disappear just because there is some other new mutated virii.

The only way that the non-mutated virii disappear (and therefore the new mutated version takes its place and becomes prevalent/universal) is if the old version can no longer spread. Why would the non-mutated virus suddenly not be able to spread? Up until now at least it has had no difficulty spreading. Unless there is some reason the old virus can no longer spread, then there isn't any particular selection pressure or mechanism to cause it to die out and allow a mutated version to take its place and become prevalent.

One way the normal non-mutated version might stop spreading is if herd immunity developed, and if the mutated version can nonetheless infect people who were immune to the previous version. I am no virologist, but AFAIK this is normally how new mutations of viruses that cause cold/flu spread and become prevalent - because new variants develop different tricks to get around immunity and spread more easily while old variants no longer can spread due to immunity/prevalent vaccines, etc.

But this is not the case as far as we know - serology shows that there is no herd immunity outside possibly of a few particularly hard hit regions such as some of the Italian towns in Lombardy.

So if you think that there is some sort of new mutation, then you need to explain what exactly is driving the selection pressure to allow it to become prevalent and replace the non-mutated version.

And any such explanation is totally lacking...

Of course, it is theoretically possible that some study could come out tomorrow showing that a mutated less-deadly strain has begun to circulate (maybe hypothetically there is a more mild strain that comprises 5% or 10% or 20% or even 50% of current infections) and that could prove you right. But if so, you wouldn't be right because of any particular insight or because this was particularly likely/plausible to think, but rather just from completely random dumb luck.

So this idea that the virus has mutated to become deadly is hypothetically theoretically possible, but if you think about it carefully it doesn't seem particularly plausible or logical to think that it is very likely at all.

If you study Molecular Biology or Medicine at University level for any length of time, you will get a better appreciation for what single cell mutation is all about.

If you are trying to imply that I haven't, I am not sure on what basis you are making that assumption...

you will get a better appreciation for what single cell mutation is all about.

If there is someone who may want to brush up on university level bio, this comment would suggest that perhaps it may be you... Viruses are not cells and do not mutate in the same way as cells. COVID-19 is not a cellular organism, it is an RNA virus and its RNA mutates, whereas in cells DNA mutates.

You are more or less saying "If you think this, you need to explain how that occurs. And any such explanation is totally lacking..."

You are not getting the point of this. Nobody is questioning the fact that COVID-19 (like other viruses) routinely mutates, nor the molecular mechanisms through which COVID-19 that occurs.

Rather the explanation that is totally lacking is why a particular mutated form of the virus would propogate and become prevalent at the expense of the non-mutated virus (which seems to propogate just fine as it is). There is no obvious selection pressure to make that occur. This is a question of evolutionary theory and of epidemiology, not a question of molecular biology/medicine/cell bio. So the mechanisms of cellular mutation (or for that matter RNA virus mutation) are totally besides the point here, the point is evolutionary selection...



And on that note, right on queue...

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1276894164525907969

Natural selection in action. This gives me faith that the documentary Idiocracy will not necessarily come 100% true, but maybe only partially true.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm just shocked at the people who think everyone should wear a mask 100% of the time.

What the hell does that nonsense even mean? Is there anyone out there saying that people should wear masks in their houses? If not, then you are just babbling.

About a month ago, I actually saw an article saying people should wear masks when home alone.

It depends on the circumstances. Normally there is no reason to wear a mask in your home. However, in particular if it is necessary for people who do not live in your home to enter your home for some reason, there may be good reason to wear a mask. If that is necessary/unavoidable, then you should wear a mask while they are in your home (and for a bit afterwards to give the air some time to clear). This happened with me a few weeks ago, for example, some workers who didn't live in my home had to temporarily enter and unfortunately that could not be avoided at the time. So I wore a mask, and so did they. Simple.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

These past few months have definitely changed my perspective on things. You got a fair number of people advocating for economic destruction, erosion of civil liberties, and downright anarchy and it's become totally normalized by the MSM.

The only people who are advocating for economic destruction are those who wish to attempt to re-open without controlling the virus, which is now beginning to result in greater economic destruction as things start closing down again and as people retrench and withdraw to try to avoid being infected. The fundamental cause of economic damage is the virus, not lockdowns or any other measure to control the virus, and economic damage will persist until the virus is controlled.

What the media is keeping quiet from you is that the actual estimated death rate (by the CDC) has been revised down to 0.3%, not the 2-3% originally reported. And given the huge number of reported cases, it's very possible a significant number of us have already had coronavirus and did not even know about it.

...

Source on the CDC thing: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

You might want to read your own link...

As far as "2-3% originally reported," you are confusing CFRs and IFRs. The best estimate of the IFR (the true fatality rate) rate has been about 0.7% since at least February/early March, though uncertainty remains and this also depends quite a bit on demographics of patients. If you feel like going back to the Atlas COVID thread from that time, you will see me posting about that way back then... this is not breaking news, and if it is breaking news to you that simply means you were not paying attention/not understanding what was going on.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

You have got to watch this to believe. Looks like things are likely to keep getting worse, at least in Texas...

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1276886772287442944

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You have got to watch this to believe. Looks like things are likely to keep getting worse, at least in Texas...

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1276886772287442944

Isn’t this just evidence that a lot of people are getting tested?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

These past few months have definitely changed my perspective on things. You got a fair number of people advocating for economic destruction, erosion of civil liberties, and downright anarchy

Perhaps they've been desensitized by fours years of the GOP telling them that economic destruction, erosion of civil liberties, and downright anarchy in the highest halls of government are all just fine?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Federal officials allowed distribution of COVID-19 antibody tests after they knew many were flawed

Federal officials failed to immediately stop the distribution of many COVID-19 antibody tests they knew were flawed, leading to inaccurate data about the spread of the virus. Congress is now investigating why the FDA did not review the tests it allowed to be distributed widely throughout the U.S. Sharyn Alfonsi's three-month investigation into the faulty tests will be broadcast on 60 Minutes, Sunday, June 28 at 7 p.m. ET/PT on CBS.

[Joe Republic]

At this current rate, I believe that we will reach 125,000 deaths by August. I don't believe it will be any higher.

Oops.