COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Roll Roons]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

I know those are Sunday numbers but the trend in the past couple days is definitely in the right direction. Looks like IHME was right about the timing of the national peak.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/us/politics/larry-hogan-wife-yumi-korea-coronavirus-tests.html

This is what leadership looks like - Imagine if we had this man as our president. No matter how slim his chances may be, I will drop everything and campaign my heart out for him in 2024.

[Roll Roons]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/nyc-sees-coronavirus-deaths-surge-with-744-reported-in-one-day/

At least for NYC, a lot of it seems to come from a backlog catching up.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/TimOBrien/status/1253501765644963845

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/lysol-manufacturer-warns-against-internal-use-after-trump-comments-n1191586?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

"WASHINGTON — The manufacturer of Lysol, a disinfectant spray and cleaning product, and the EPA both issued statements warning against any internal use after President Donald Trump suggested that people could get an "injection" of "the disinfectant that knocks (coronavirus) out in a minute."

"As a global leader in health and hygiene products, we must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route)," said a spokesperson for Reckitt Benckiser, the United Kingdom-based owner of Lysol, in a statement to NBC News."

Dubya got a bad rap. This guy is obviously the dumbest President in US history.

In hindsight, it's more that Bush looked dumber than he was because of his tendency to misspeak (like Biden). Trump is actually a moron.

[Roll Roons]

Why so much new cases? Backlogged or testing?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1253804899957080065

Per Nate Silver, a significant increase in testing. The percentage of positive tests is actually down from yesterday.

[Roll Roons]

Also New York has the fewest daily deaths since April 1: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

[Roll Roons]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/new-york-reports-367-new-virus-deaths-lowest-since-march-31?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&fbclid=IwAR2wciNrb9ez14RzwSYJF_lfefAmN-9prv_jLYMOd4E6xYT6hQUlnhWv5aM

NY deaths at lowest level since March 31. This is coupled with a huge increase in testing.

[Roll Roons]

The Oxford vaccine trials have started, they started injecting volunteers last week, they said in 6 weeks we can expect results of efficacy and side effects, if it works they plan to try to get emergency authorization

Which would mean it'd be ready by the end of the year. Hopefully we can avert or heavily reduce the chances of a second outbreak.

They said if the results in mid-June are very good we could get it by September, some manufacturing companies are already starting to manufacture the vaccine candidate in the event it proves successful. We'll also get initial data sometime in May

Media here are reporting there are currently 7 different potential vaccines in human testing already. 3 Chinese, 2 American, 1 German and the Oxford one. Various fairly serious people seem to think that between those ones and a few others that have been succesful in animal testing means that having a vaccine available before the end of the year is a real possibility.

Yes! The world has never been so focused on creating a vaccine. The top scientists everywhere are working on it 24/7, and Bill Gates and Mike Bloomberg are promising to fund research and manufacturing. The Oxford one has been in development for several years and has already been tested for safety, and results on effectiveness are expected this month.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/scientists-conclude-people-cannot-get-coronavirus-twice/ar-BB13tm64?ocid=st2

Korean scientists definitively conclude that it's impossible for people to get it twice.

[Roll Roons]

I just saw a model that predicts 350,000 dead in the US alone by the end of June.

I lost hope I didn't even know I had.

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/495865-oxford-professor-possible-coronavirus-vaccine-could-show-efficacy

This should give you a little bit of hope. This guy is a longtime professor of immunology at one of the finest universities in the world, and he says a vaccine is looking very promising and could have results as early as next month. That would be unprecedented in terms of vaccine development.

[Roll Roons]

https://dcist.com/story/20/05/04/virginia-gov-northam-says-state-could-start-to-reopen-economy-by-end-of-next-week/

Virginia to start first phase of reopening next Friday - safe to assume that DC and MD aren't too far behind? Doesn't really seem feasible to open up one without the other two.

[Roll Roons]

Let's continue to listen to those protesters.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1257626866791448576

It's not surprising to see this, but what will most Americans think once we hit 25% or even 30% unemployment, and the economy has completely crashed? When we have breadlines in every city, mass foreclosures across the country, mass bankruptcies, and millions of jobs permanently lost? At some point, people will have to make a choice between their financial well-being and their fears for their health, and that is an impossible choice for many.

It's a sad day when people pick the economy over their health or other peoples health.

But for many people, the economy and their personal health are inseparable. As you very well know, many people only have insurance coverage because of their jobs. And of course, many others have no insurance coverage at all, even with a job. Depriving them of that would put them further into the hole. Do you think it is morally just for someone to be unemployed and to be reduced to begging at a food bank for sustenance, and to hope that they won't be evicted? All for the sake of a months-long lockdown that will not bring a cure to this virus, and by itself will cause more disruption and more harm? I don't think so.

That's a flaw in the healthcare system (a feature, I guess, for right wingers). Has nothing to do with the impact of coronavirus and everything to do with decades of failure of US leadership.

I certainly am not trying to argue that our healthcare system is "perfect" or "flawless"-it is far from that. What I am trying to say is that there is a point where the stay-at-home orders become unsustainable for millions of Americans. And Governors across the country have begun to recognize that.

"Governors", or "a few Republican Governors"?

Democrat Ralph Northam is letting us reopen restaurants and barbers next week ... announced earlier than Republican Larry Hogan.

With Northam's announcement, there's no way Hogan and Bowser won't also start reopening soon just because of how closely linked Northern Virginia is with Maryland and DC.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1259957359532740609

Although Monday numbers are usually lower, these are apparently the best since late March.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1260324940114464768

Just over 1500 deaths, compared to 2500 a week ago.

[Roll Roons]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is India really a success story?  It seems like infections there are just starting to explode, despite the country implementing a pretty strict lockdown relatively early.

And Singapore, another tropical country, after early success containing the virus, now has one of the highest infection rates per capita globally despite pretty strict controls, although it has a thankfully low death rate so far. The evidence is really not there that warm, moist weather provides much benefit.

To be fair, most cases in Singapore are coming from a migrant worker dorm, and most of the inhabitants are healthy young men. There's very little transmission in the rest of the country.

[Roll Roons]

As long as Trump is in the White House, this virus will not be contained. Trump will make sure of it; it helps his re-election due to Biden supporters being too scared to vote in person. That's why he's dismantling the Postal Service; he knows universal VBM would hurt him.

A lot of people REALLY hate Trump and will do anything to see that he's out of office, even if it means they might get sick.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Thomashornall/status/1261635330760982529

Horseshoe theory at its finest.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Thomashornall/status/1261635330760982529

Horseshoe theory at its finest.

This doesn't say anything more about the left than Malik Obama's support of Trump says about the center.

This does. https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/630995541204336640

[Roll Roons]

Very positive results from this trial of Moderna's vaccine::

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna.html

This vaccine is zooming through trials and may be ready for widespread use very soon.

"Very soon" in this case being late this year or early next year (which is probably the best-case scenario for any vaccine).  From the article:

If those trials go well, a vaccine could become available for widespread use by the end of this year or early 2021, Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer, said in an interview. How many doses might be ready is not clear, but Dr. Zaks said, “We’re doing our best to make it as many millions as possible.”

I saw other articles earlier this morning that said they may be able to expedite it further.

You might be thinking of the Oxford vaccine. That one could be ready for mass use by September.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262491379747426307

Fewest since March 30th.

[Roll Roons]

One thing to note is that deaths have been on a steady downward trend, while cases are largely plateauing. Is the virus is slowly mutating to become less deadly?

[Roll Roons]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-13/california-coronavirus-surge-tied-to-testing-not-reopening-businesses-officials-say

California's case numbers are actually a function of more testing. The positivity rate and hospitalization numbers are on a downward trend.

[Roll Roons]

Some pretty YUUUUUGE news from today's presser.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1272936921128370179

And people though Mark Kirk's brain was screwed up after he had the stroke.

[Roll Roons]

It looks like today will be the first time we hit or come very close to hitting +40,000 cases in one day. Deaths are starting to ramp up again too.

Deaths are actually flat compared to a week ago. There was a backlog dump from Delaware.  https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1275548130629599235

[Roll Roons]

I'm confused as to what people think Texas should have done differently.  They still have by far the lowest covid death rate of any large state.  Their death rate is more than twenty times lower than New York.

Under the stay-at-home order Texas consistently experienced about 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for a month.  They lifted the stay-at-home order, and continued to experience 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for the next six weeks. 

Were they supposed to just continue the stay-home-order indefinitely when they never had a significant number of deaths, and there was no evidence the order was reducing cases or deaths anyway?

The biggest thing would have been a mask order. Same goes for Arizona and Florida.