2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

RV
Democratic 48% (-1)
Republican 45% (nc)

High turnout
Democratic 48%
Republican 46%

Low turnout
Democratic 48%
Republican 47%

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_090220.pdf/

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_090220/

August 28-31, 2020
400 registered voters (400 voters accounted for in each likely voter model)
MoE: 4.9%

Changes with July 9-13 poll.

For registered voters, more details were supplied:

Other candidate 1% (n/c)
No one 1% (was previously <1%)
Undecided 5% (n/c)

[Brittain33]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

[Roll Roons]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

What was the aggregate for these seats in 2018?

[wbrocks67]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

This is what makes me believe the poll is junk. There's no way Republicans are winning those seats by 10%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

This is what makes me believe the poll is junk. There's no way Republicans are winning those seats by 10%.

It is a subsample. Crosstabs will usually be a bit rum.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov: GCB D+13

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7kvpozbozh/econTabReport.pdf

[VAR]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

What was the aggregate for these seats in 2018?

D 53%, R 47%

[Gracile]

TX-24 has now become the sixth Republican-held seat to be moved into the Democratic column by any of the three major prognosticators. Also, now GA-07 is rated as a Democratic pick-up by all of the big three.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why was Schrier's seat moved to Lean? Is that just because she didn't get a majority in the primary? Did she draw a strong opponent? All of the above?

[ctrepublican512]

Could Harrison's fundraising help Joe Cunningham win?

Plausibly if that money was being poured into a massive GOTV effort that overlapped heavily with SC-01. If it's just being pumped into ads promoting Harrison, then no.

If Harrison wins, I'm guessing he carries SC-01

[Virginiá]

Could Harrison's fundraising help Joe Cunningham win?

Plausibly if that money was being poured into a massive GOTV effort that overlapped heavily with SC-01. If it's just being pumped into ads promoting Harrison, then no.

If Harrison wins, I'm guessing he carries SC-01

It won't help in SC-01, though. Coattails flow from the top, not the middle.

[wbrocks67]

Could Harrison's fundraising help Joe Cunningham win?

Plausibly if that money was being poured into a massive GOTV effort that overlapped heavily with SC-01. If it's just being pumped into ads promoting Harrison, then no.

If Harrison wins, I'm guessing he carries SC-01

It won't help in SC-01, though. Coattails flow from the top, not the middle.

I mean theoretically Harrisons fundraising does help SC-01. Because if Harrison can bring out as many voters as he can to the SC race, that helps Cunningham.

[Gracile]

Sabato’s Crystal Ball made 14 House rating changes today-

https://mobile.twitter.com/kkondik/status/1301494743176744962

[Virginiá]

I mean theoretically Harrisons fundraising does help SC-01. Because if Harrison can bring out as many voters as he can to the SC race, that helps Cunningham.

In a high-turnout election like this, how many people would turn out just because of Harrison though? If these people were going to vote anyway, it's not Harrison causing it. It's pretty obvious that Trump, in one way or another, is causing a surge of interest in politics under his presidency.

Granted, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say there are small amounts of disillusioned Dem-leaning people in SC who may be pushed to vote because they think they have a chance at real representation in an otherwise conservative Republican-led state, but I doubt it's a game-changing amount.

[Horus]

CA-25 back to lean R where it should be.

[Pollster]

I mean theoretically Harrisons fundraising does help SC-01. Because if Harrison can bring out as many voters as he can to the SC race, that helps Cunningham.

In a high-turnout election like this, how many people would turn out just because of Harrison though? If these people were going to vote anyway, it's not Harrison causing it. It's pretty obvious that Trump, in one way or another, is causing a surge of interest in politics under his presidency.

Granted, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say there are small amounts of disillusioned Dem-leaning people in SC who may be pushed to vote because they think they have a chance at real representation in an otherwise conservative Republican-led state, but I doubt it's a game-changing amount.

It's not unlikely that Harrison's campaign will have a far more targeted and robust GOTV operation in the state than Biden's which probably won't spend much or anything here, that certainly helps down-ballot.

[Xing]

Here I was giving Sabato the benefit of the doubt for not changing WA-08 because of the primary, and FL-26 is a Toss-Up while ME-02 is Lean D? Junk.

[ctrepublican512]

I mean theoretically Harrisons fundraising does help SC-01. Because if Harrison can bring out as many voters as he can to the SC race, that helps Cunningham.

In a high-turnout election like this, how many people would turn out just because of Harrison though? If these people were going to vote anyway, it's not Harrison causing it. It's pretty obvious that Trump, in one way or another, is causing a surge of interest in politics under his presidency.

Granted, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say there are small amounts of disillusioned Dem-leaning people in SC who may be pushed to vote because they think they have a chance at real representation in an otherwise conservative Republican-led state, but I doubt it's a game-changing amount.

I mean it'sing to be a very Dem year and SC is going to have one of the closest Senate elections in decades. And Harrison is a compelling candidate and I'm sure he has the ability to turn out black voters that might be disillusioned from other races. SC has a large black population after all... May not end up being true but I don't think it's fair to count that out.

[kph14]

CA-25 back to lean R where it should be.

I can't wait for Garcia to declare victory on election night only to lose a few days later

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/ramsberry1/status/1301620836932165642?s=19

Down in her own internals.. yep, Lean R is justified.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1301696722696048648?s=20

Guess I'll post it here? Theres a chance Freitas may not be the nominee in VA07.

[VAR]

Generic ballot - USC Dornsife

Democratic 49.5% (-1.2)
Republican 45.6% (+0.9)

https://election.usc.edu/

[SnowLabrador]

Generic ballot - USC Dornsife

Democratic 49.5% (-1.2)
Republican 45.6% (+0.9)

https://election.usc.edu/

It looks like some people are going to vote for Biden and Republican Congresspeople in order to "put a check on Biden". Of course, these people are idiots.

[WD]

Generic ballot - USC Dornsife

Democratic 49.5% (-1.2)
Republican 45.6% (+0.9)

https://election.usc.edu/

It looks like some people are going to vote for Biden and Republican Congresspeople in order to "put a check on Biden". Of course, these people are idiots.

Ummm, Dems are ahead in the GCB?

[wbrocks67]

Generic ballot - USC Dornsife

Democratic 49.5% (-1.2)
Republican 45.6% (+0.9)

https://election.usc.edu/

It looks like some people are going to vote for Biden and Republican Congresspeople in order to "put a check on Biden". Of course, these people are idiots.

Ummm, Dems are ahead in the GCB?

Not to mention, the USC poll has been kinda noisy the past couple days. It was sitting at D+8 for like 2-3 weeks straight according to 538 so it appears this is just a likely wonky sample