2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[VAR]

Congressional Leadership Fund announces $18 million in ad buys!

NY-22: $1.6M
OK-05: $1.5M
FL-26: $1.2M
TX-22: $950k
OH-01: $900k
NJ-07: $875k
AK-AL: $865k
NY-02: $850k
Dallas: $820k
CA-25: $750k
VA-05: $750k
NE-02: $750k
NY-01: $750k
MO-02: $740k
NY-11: $700k
AR-02: $500k
MI-06: $500k
IN-05: $460k
PA-10: $435k
IL-13: $200k
MN-01: $150k

...

Greenville, SC: $850k

That’s NC-11.

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/clf-adds-18-million-to-fall-advertising-reservations-bringing-2020-spending-commitments-to-nearly-110-million/

Also, 314 Action Fund (D) will spend $550k to help Goroff and $1M to help Webb.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I saw that some House debates took place yesterday. Did anyone watch any of them?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1310655515022839810?s=21

[VAR]

^LOL MN-01

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1310639318281711616?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

[Roll Roons]

^LOL MN-01

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1310639318281711616?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Hagedorn won by 1500 votes and isn’t very strong. Why would Democrats not contest it? And there’s no indication of Kinzinger being in trouble at all, but no reason for him not to cover his bases.

[VAR]

^LOL MN-01

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1310639318281711616?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Hagedorn won by 1500 votes and isn’t very strong. Why would Democrats not contest it?

Feehan is at only 41% in his internals, which shows he isn’t getting much crossover support this time. Furthermore, presidential turnout and incumbency will help Hagedorn a great deal.

[Gracile]

Cook Political made the following House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310921940295733251

[WD]

Cook Political made the following House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310921940295733251

NY-19 is probably the single biggest recruitment disaster this cycle. Also lol @ PA-17.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The PA-17 rating is just dumb. Parnell is a terrible fit for the district.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cook Political made the following House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310921940295733251

NY-19 is probably the single biggest recruitment disaster this cycle. Also lol @ PA-17.

NY-22 is arguably the biggest one. Republicans ran the one lady who Brindisi is slightly favored against. Almost anyone else would have been more likely than not to flip it. ME-02, PA-08, and MI-08 were also pretty bad in terms of recruiting for seats that should have been easy flips on paper.

PA-01 and NE-02 are the Democrats' biggest flubs since it looks like Biden will easily win those seats, but Finello and Eastman have excellent chances of being dragged across by coattails anyways.

[Gracile]

Cook Political made the following House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310921940295733251

NY-19 is probably the single biggest recruitment disaster this cycle. Also lol @ PA-17.

NY-22 is arguably the biggest one. Republicans ran the one lady who Brindisi is slightly favored against. Almost anyone else would have been more likely than not to flip it. ME-02, PA-08, and MI-08 were also pretty bad in terms of recruiting for seats that should have been easy flips on paper.

PA-01 and NE-02 are the Democrats' biggest flubs since it looks like Biden will easily win those seats, but Finello and Eastman have excellent chances of being dragged across by coattails anyways.

Tenney is pretty bad, but it's hard to overstate how bad the fundamentals are for Brindisi (it's the second most Republican Democratic-held district by 2016 margin after MN-07). Not to mention it was still a close race in 2018. Maybe I'm underestimating Brindisi and how Democratic the national environment truly is, but I think Tenney can still win just by the lean of the district. It should be close, though.

[Mr.Phips]

Cook Political made the following House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310921940295733251

NY-19 is probably the single biggest recruitment disaster this cycle. Also lol @ PA-17.

NY-22 is arguably the biggest one. Republicans ran the one lady who Brindisi is slightly favored against. Almost anyone else would have been more likely than not to flip it. ME-02, PA-08, and MI-08 were also pretty bad in terms of recruiting for seats that should have been easy flips on paper.

PA-01 and NE-02 are the Democrats' biggest flubs since it looks like Biden will easily win those seats, but Finello and Eastman have excellent chances of being dragged across by coattails anyways.

Tenney is pretty bad, but it's hard to overstate how bad the fundamentals are for Brindisi (it's the second most Republican Democratic-held district by 2016 margin after MN-07). Not to mention it was still a close race in 2018. Maybe I'm underestimating Brindisi and how Democratic the national environment truly is, but I think Tenney can still win just by the lean of the district. It should be close, though.

Obama did basically tie in this district in 2008 and 2012.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden was doing a lot better than Hillary’s near 20 point loss here.

[wbrocks67]

PA-17 change makes no sense, given that Biden is polling particularly well in that area. Also, Lamb has raised more $$ than Parnell, and Parnell is way too far-right for that district.

[GoldenMainer]

I'm amazed at the Golden rating because Crafts isn't even that bad of a recruit. He's a former state Rep, business owner, and he has an interesting story of being paralyzed in a motorcycle accident. I have no idea why his fundraising is so poor. You would think that a very white, rural, Trump +10 seat is one that Republicans would be going after.

It just goes to show you how strong of a recruit Golden was. And to think that Lucas St. Clair was running neck and neck with him in the primary in 2018. What a disaster he'd have been. Golden is understated and quiet in everything he does but clearly there's a lane for a calm, nice, hardworking guy who just wants to deliver for his constituents. It also shows Democrats the kind of person they need to run in rural districts that might be trending Republican. Golden is a reliable vote on women's issues, LGBT issues, environmental issues, labor issues, etc. Really, the only area where he is more conservative is on guns. But that works for his district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1310655515022839810?s=21

Good that they are spending on AR-02 but they cannot seriously still think MN-01 is winnable.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1310655515022839810?s=21

Good that they are spending on AR-02 but they cannot seriously still think MN-01 is winnable.

Id give Ds a 25-30% chance in AR02 and MN02 is around 15% but one is more valuable due to redistricting being more likely to be controlled by Ds in Minnesota while AR02 either has little rock cracked or made a touch more red.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1310655515022839810?s=21

Good that they are spending on AR-02 but they cannot seriously still think MN-01 is winnable.

Id give Ds a 25-30% chance in AR02 and MN02 is around 15% but one is more valuable due to redistricting being more likely to be controlled by Ds in Minnesota while AR02 either has little rock cracked or made a touch more red.

Were doing redistricting reform in congress so it doesnt matter. MN-01 is not voting for Biden and I doubt feehan does any better.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1311382499919097864

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1311440009648537600

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/TheNJGlobe/status/1311467806811193346

[VAR]

Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating changes:

Senate
AK (R, Sullivan): Likely R to Lean R
CO (R, Gardner): Lean D to Likely D

House
AZ-06 (R, Schweikert): Lean R to Tossup
CA-21 (D, Cox): Lean D to Tossup
FL-13 (D, Crist): Likely D to Safe D
IA-01 (D, Finkenauer): Tossup to Lean D
IL-06 (D, Casten): Likely D to Safe D
IL-14 (D, Underwood): Lean D to Likely D
ME-02 (D, Golden): Lean D to Likely D
MN-01 (R, Hagedorn): Lean R to Tossup
MT-AL (R, Open): Likely R to Lean R
NJ-02 (R, Van Drew): Lean R to Tossup
TX-07 (D, Fletcher): Lean D to Likely D
VA-05 (R, Open): Lean R to Tossup

[LimoLiberal]

Republican super PAC putting $9 million down in Michigan in the next 33 days to try to knock off Peters.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/01/republican-super-pac-to-spend-9-million-in-michigan-senate-race/

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1311658151243022342
https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1311657143301541888

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, we're gonna see a LOT of Dems not only at $1M but $2M

[Roll Roons]

Where is all this money even coming from?

Also who does everyone think will be the top fundraiser among House GOP challengers? My guess is either Kean, Gimenez or Hunt.