2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[VAR]

NE-02

GQR/Eastman internal
June 30-July 5
502 LV
MoE: 4.4%

Eastman 50%
Bacon 49%
Undecided 1%

[VAR]

NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

[VAR]

MT-AL
Civiqs/Daily Kos
July 11-13
873 RV
MoE: 4.2%

Rosendale 49%
Williams 47%
Unsure 3%
Someone else 2%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MT_banner_book_2020_07_ba6t8k.pdf

[VAR]

CO-03: Boebert raised $19k in Q2.
KS-02: Watkins raised $124k in Q2.

[VAR]

NBC News/Wall Street Journal
July 9-12
900 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Democratic 47%
Republican 43%
Undecided 10%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6989473/200356-NBCWSJ-July-Poll-7-15-2020-Release.pdf

Last poll: D +11

[VAR]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

[VAR]

IA-03
Tarrance Group/R internal
March 10-12, 2020
400 RV

Axne 48%
Young 48%
Undecided 4%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

[VAR]

PA-01
American Viewpoint/R internal
July 13-15
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Fitzpatrick 50%
Finello 35%
Libertarian candidate 5%
Undecided 8%

https://app.luminpdf.com/viewer/5f164a1e9bdaca001a78b17b

[VAR]

OH-01
GQR/Schroder internal
June 29-July 2
605 LV
MoE: 4.0%

Chabot 48%
Schroder 46%
Undecided 6%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/508362-internal-poll-shows-tight-race-brewing-in-key-ohio-house-race

[VAR]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

[VAR]

Economist/YouGov
July 19-21
1222 RV
MoE: 3.2%

Democratic 47% (-1)
Republican 40%
Other 1%
Not sure 9%
Would not vote 2%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8uw05wqpg2/econTabReport.pdf

[VAR]

GQR Research
July 15-19
1000 RV
MoE: 3.1%

Democratic 53%
Republican 46%
Other 1%

https://accountabletech.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Accountable-Tech-071920-FQ.pdf

[VAR]

NY-01
PPP/Goroff internal
July 14-15
1100 RV
MoE: 3.0%

Zeldin 47%
Goroff 40%
Undecided 13%

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/newsday-opinion-the-point-newsletter-1.47205902

[VAR]

Reuters/Ipsos

Democratic 47%
Republican 39%
Other/undecided/will not vote 14%

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/bdwvkezzovm/Topline%20Reuters-Ipsos%20Core%20Political%207.28.pdf

[VAR]

MN-02
Harper Polling (R)

Craig (D, inc.) 45%
Kistner (R) 36%

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/07/29/fundraising-prowess-may-not-be-enough-for-gop-house-challenger-tyler-kistner/

[VAR]

TX-22
Meeting Street Insights/Nehls internal

Nehls 44%
Kulkarni 32%
LeBlanc 5%
Undecided 19%

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CLF-TX-22-July-Survey-Memo.pdf

[VAR]

MI-02
Denno Research (D internal)

Huizenga 49%
Berghoef 32%
Undecided 19%

Senate:

James 40%
Peters 38%
Undecided 22%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TtEmS5LQ4hEV5fXu2iLOXvifesQKuAoR/view

[VAR]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

[VAR]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

[VAR]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

If Rubio only tied statewide, I guarantee you that he would have lost this district.

Narrowly, maybe. But not by 8 points. Or even 3 points.

[VAR]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

[VAR]

IA-02
Harper Polling/Miller-Meeks internal

Hart 41%
Miller-Meeks 41%

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/poll-miller-meeks-rita-hart-iowa-2nd-district-race-20200802

[VAR]

OH-01
DCCC/Schroder internal

Schroder 47%
Chabot 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290637888716251136

[VAR]

GA-06
North Star Opinion Research/Handel internal

McBath 48%
Handel 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290644125604368388

Handel was leading by 2 points in March.

[VAR]

CA-50
Campa-Najjar internal

Issa 47%
Campa-Najjar 43%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/510382-harris-endorses-democrat-in-tight-california-house-race

Was Issa 48-45 in March.