2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

Tilt R.

[SnowLabrador]

Grinnell/Selzer poll has Trump's job approval at *+3* yet at the same time...

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1245275743363325952

Either this is a junk poll or 2020 is going to be a Democratic tsunami. Going with the former, as Trump's approval rating +3 is a bit of an outlier.

[SnowLabrador]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

Agreed with all of these except Georgia. That race will go whichever way the Presidential race in Georgia goes, and by all accounts Georgia is no better than Lean R for Trump

Even if Biden wins Georgia, Perdue ain't losing. Not with the garbage-tier opponents he has.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/libmeyer/status/1250488173391687682?s=20

It's good but it's not enough. Ernst raised half a million more in the same period.

[SnowLabrador]

Garcia will still probably win the special election, but a good chance he loses in November even if so. Democrats just haven't been good at turning out in special elections this cycle.

[SnowLabrador]

Ashley Hinson outraised Abby Finkenauer in IA-01 in Q2 2020, $1M to $875K. I believe Finkenauer will lose.

[SnowLabrador]

Colorado should be Lean if not Likely D, and Iowa should still be Lean R.

[SnowLabrador]

Iowa should still be Lean R.

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?

[SnowLabrador]

Sabato moved Iowa to Tossup and Georgia special to Likely R today.

[SnowLabrador]

NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.

[SnowLabrador]

The latest WSJ poll had Biden +9, but the GCB was only D +5. Why do you guys think that is?

My guess: Voters see Biden as a sure bet to win, but want Republicans in Congress to "check" him. Idiots.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1298451167471689729

Absolutely a tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

Generic ballot - USC Dornsife

Democratic 49.5% (-1.2)
Republican 45.6% (+0.9)

https://election.usc.edu/

It looks like some people are going to vote for Biden and Republican Congresspeople in order to "put a check on Biden". Of course, these people are idiots.

[SnowLabrador]

Generic ballot - Monmouth

LV
Democrat 49%
Republican 45%

RV
Democrat 49%
Republican 43%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

This is terrifying.

[SnowLabrador]

Iowa at Lean D is very premature. It's still Tilt R in my book.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1318593900685283328

TX-02 isn't one of the ratings they changed, but, while it's clearly a Likely R race, I don't see any way Crenshaw wins by 20 points like 538 thinks he will.

[SnowLabrador]

Something hilarious about moving IA from Lean-Dem to Lean-Rep without even stopping at Toss-Up

It's justified. For some reason, there was a lot of late movement towards Ernst.