2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 04:52:58 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 9
Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 165737 times)
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« on: October 15, 2019, 05:32:57 AM »
I feel like we've barely gotten any reports and the deadline is today.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2019, 06:32:01 PM »
Happy to see Eugene Depasquale ($360k) outraise Scott Perry ($299k) in PA-10
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2019, 05:44:14 AM »
Let's be real, it might not be Super-Safe-Titan D, but there really wasn't a need to change it.

It's basically a suburban district than Trump barely won by 2% in 2016 and Conor Lamb literally blew out the challenger last year with 57% of the vote. Lamb won a Trump +20 district and a Trump +2 district by double digit margins. I don't think this guy really changes anything.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2019, 05:44:45 AM »
Morning Consult has GCB at Dem +8

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016e-1976-d4da-a1ff-1bf676e00000
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2019, 11:18:55 AM »
Can anyone tell me if there's a source to find who are the challengers in each district so far? I'm trying to find out who are the current R challengers for PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08, if any
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2019, 07:18:11 AM »
Cobb raised $1 million+
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2019, 06:59:19 PM »
Quote from: Tilt R Nevada on November 19, 2019, 04:21:19 PM
Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

First of all, what is "Just +6"? Being 6 pts ahead doesn't justify a "just" infront of it. Not to mention there's a ton of undecideds still, and for most of the 2018 cycle, Dems were up by about 5-7 on average so this is... right inline with early 2018 polls.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2019, 07:23:45 AM »
Yeah, not sure how he thought that poll was good for Trump. 45% in OK-05 for impeachment is pretty damn high.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2019, 12:47:30 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on December 17, 2019, 12:45:45 PM


For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Plus Kind won by 20% in 2018 so its not like he's in any danger. If Trump is that much underwater, an impeachment vote won't hurt Kind too much.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2019, 02:08:46 PM »
Quote from: PA is Lean D on December 17, 2019, 01:50:09 PM
Quote from: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on December 17, 2019, 01:16:47 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on December 17, 2019, 12:45:45 PM


For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%
Thats just the 2016 numbers. Decent news for dems, actually.

Might be why so many vulnerable dems are onboard with the impeachment. Internal polls must look pretty decent.

I mean, Brad Parscale was tweeting one from OK-05 that even had it like 45/50 so MTE
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2019, 06:46:17 PM »
Brad Parscale strikes again. So Trump won all of those districts and the "Generic Dem" is only down by 3? Without the incumbents even being named? That's not a good poll for Rs.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2019, 10:45:01 AM »
YouGov has Dems +8 in GCB

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ua3ar45wbg/econTabReport.pdf
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2019, 05:20:45 PM »
But I was told this would destroy the Dems careers...
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2019, 07:18:48 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on December 19, 2019, 06:29:25 AM


The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2019, 09:45:16 AM »
I'm not sure which is messier... that MI-03 was tossup to begin with or that Cartwright is suddenly Tossup after winning last time by 9.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2019, 08:21:43 AM »
OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2020, 07:08:06 AM »
Haley Stevens (MI-11) raised $550K in the 4th Q
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2020, 08:44:06 AM »
Impeachment vote certainly helped! WOW:
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2020, 11:05:47 AM »
Cindy Axne raises $620K
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2020, 08:04:45 AM »
More news:

NV-03: Susie Lee (D) raises $600K+
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/susie-lee-rakes-in-more-than-600k-in-q4-fundraising-amid-impeachment-ad-blitz

NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small (D) has raised $900K
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1215343691847688193

IA-SEN: Greenfield (D) raised $1.6 million
https://iowastartingline.com/2020/01/09/ia-sen-greenfield-raises-record-breaking-numbers-in-q4/
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2020, 09:10:27 AM »
The NY GOP remains a mess.

Max Rose, NY-11 (D) raised a whopping $1.2 million in Q4, ended with $2.5 million in the bank.

His most likely GOP challenger, Nicole Malliotakis, only raised $306K in Q4.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1216697474385154048
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2020, 06:40:39 AM »
Peterson may be safe afterall...
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2020, 08:40:41 AM »
Mikie Sherill (NJ-11) raised $757K in 4th Q, bringing COH to $2.2 million+

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/sherrill-has-huge-fundraising-haul-amasses-2-2-million-warchest/
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2020, 08:53:16 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on January 14, 2020, 08:44:09 AM
For those who think that McSally is a bad candidate


She is. How much did Mark Kelly raise?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,241
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2020, 08:53:39 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on January 14, 2020, 08:45:50 AM

Sure. Lol

Hughes came very close in 2018 despite spending 0. With Trump at the top of the ballot Fischbach will win provided a scandal-free campaign

Not with those #s
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 9  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 11 queries.