2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Originally posted in the MA-SEN thread:

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf

MA-01 Democratic Primary
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 23-24, 2020
518 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Neal 49%
Morse 40%
Not sure 12%

It should be noted this poll has Kennedy over Markey by 7% in this district and that's not what I would expect assuming the statewide Markey leads are as high as recent polls suggest, although the Senate primary isn't going to break completely along traditional progressive/moderate lines so I can't be too sure.

[Oryxslayer]

Originally posted in the MA-SEN thread:

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf

MA-01 Democratic Primary
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 23-24, 2020
518 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Neal 49%
Morse 40%
Not sure 12%

It should be noted this poll has Kennedy over Markey by 7% in this district and that's not what I would expect assuming the statewide Markey leads are as high as recent polls suggest, although the Senate primary isn't going to break completely along traditional progressive/moderate lines so I can't be too sure.

Nationally, we think of Western Massachusetts as this bastion of the left since it's part of greater Vermont culturally, and backed democratic candidates in tight races like the 2012 Senate election. The issue with this birds-eye perspective is that you ignore the people living and voting there. A brief examination of the residents would explain why this is not the first poll to have a Kennedy lead in Western MA. A lot of the rural democratic strength over there is thanks to eco-retirees, older people who retire close to nature rather than in the heat of Florida. It makes sense that older voters would go for the name that they have a positive association with, since they have lived through at least the glory days of Ted Kennedy.

[Gracile]

GA-06 GQR (D): McBath (D-inc) 50%, Handel (R) 47%

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

[wbrocks67]

GA-06 GQR (D): McBath (D-inc) 50%, Handel (R) 47%

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

Honestly for a D internal this is kind of disappointing. I'm not expecting a McBath blowout but I would assume, even without a D internal, she should be up at least 3/4 here, considering incumbency, she's been well-received, well-funded, and Handel seems pretty unpopular.

[Person Man]

GA-06 GQR (D): McBath (D-inc) 50%, Handel (R) 47%

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

Honestly for a D internal this is kind of disappointing. I'm not expecting a McBath blowout but I would assume, even without a D internal, she should be up at least 3/4 here, considering incumbency, she's been well-received, well-funded, and Handel seems pretty unpopular.

Her winning by 3 is then as likely as Trump winning Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

USC/Dornsife has it at D+8 (51.5-43.5), pretty much in line with the average that it's been at since 2018

https://election.usc.edu/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1299454009510629376
https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1299454010924109824

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

[n1240]

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

I thought they weren't actually asking every voter their preference in the Dem primary, but it seems they did, considering 50.9% of Dems and 51.4% of independents indicate support for Neal, yet the topline is 46% for Neal. Seems incompetent on Gravis' part, not that I expect better from them though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

I thought they weren't actually asking every voter their preference in the Dem primary, but it seems they did, considering 50.9% of Dems and 51.4% of independents indicate support for Neal, yet the topline is 46% for Neal. Seems incompetent on Gravis' part, not that I expect better from them though.

It's possible that they're accounting for self-identifying Republicans who are registered as Democratic.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

25% of the statewide sample is voting for Trump, so I would assume the progressives are doing slightly better there, but Gravis' figures aren't too reliable anyway.

A shame they didn't also poll MA-08. We only have the one Goldstein internal.

Edit: I got the Trump claim wrong. They just didn't have a Republican crosstab.

I thought they weren't actually asking every voter their preference in the Dem primary, but it seems they did, considering 50.9% of Dems and 51.4% of independents indicate support for Neal, yet the topline is 46% for Neal. Seems incompetent on Gravis' part, not that I expect better from them though.

It's possible that they're accounting for self-identifying Republicans who are registered as Democratic.

Update: no. I don't know whether they've done so in the topline or the crosstabs, but either they've ed up this release somewhere or there are a LOT of non-binary folk in MA-01 (who didn't get their own crosstab despite being so numerous):

https://twitter.com/iabvek/status/1299464111957241857

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

An update from the person who released this poll:

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1299466197264666624
My guess is that means pre-weights crosstabs, post-weights topline. UGH

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It was a fake poll put forth by some pipsqueak

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Originally posted in the MA-SEN thread:

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf

MA-01 Democratic Primary
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 23-24, 2020
518 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Neal 49%
Morse 40%
Not sure 12%

It should be noted this poll has Kennedy over Markey by 7% in this district and that's not what I would expect assuming the statewide Markey leads are as high as recent polls suggest, although the Senate primary isn't going to break completely along traditional progressive/moderate lines so I can't be too sure.

Nationally, we think of Western Massachusetts as this bastion of the left since it's part of greater Vermont culturally, and backed democratic candidates in tight races like the 2012 Senate election. The issue with this birds-eye perspective is that you ignore the people living and voting there. A brief examination of the residents would explain why this is not the first poll to have a Kennedy lead in Western MA. A lot of the rural democratic strength over there is thanks to eco-retirees, older people who retire close to nature rather than in the heat of Florida. It makes sense that older voters would go for the name that they have a positive association with, since they have lived through at least the glory days of Ted Kennedy.

Its Berkshire that's causing Kennedy to lead there
Older WWC county, Hillary-Bernie-Biden

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1300033046549274624

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1300033046549274624

Dana Balter internal
MoE: 4.4%

https://auburnpub.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/balter-vs-katko-new-polls-tell-different-stories-about-cny-race-for-congress/article_eee30c11-f4a2-541c-8d95-d583078292c3.html

Also in this release:

Public Opinion Strategies/Republican internal
August 12-15, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Katko 51%
Balter 40%

[politicallefty]

I think it's pretty much a given that Katko will seriously outperform Trump and it's probably fair to say that Balter needs Biden to win by around a double-digit margin in this district. Biden only winning by 2% would be a miserable result for him and would definitely bode ill for Democrats nationwide. A 12-point win is very much the opposite and would portend very well for some nice gains in the House.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MA-04 D primary poll!

https://jewishinsider.com/2020/08/auchincloss-and-mermell-are-neck-and-neck-in-new-massachusetts-4th-poll/
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 27-28, 2020
497 likely voters
MoE: 4.39%

Auchincloss 23%
Mermell 22%
Grossman 15%
Leckey 11%
Khazei 8%
Linos 7%
Someone else 3%
Sigel 1%
Undecided 10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-03

https://www.scribd.com/document/474218355/Tom-Suozzi-Toplines-2020-pdf

Douma Research/Tom Suozzi internal (D)
August 1-2, 2020
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Suozzi 50%
George Santos 39%
Undecided 11%

Generic D 46%
Generic R 41%
Undecided 13%

EDIT: Republican internal, not Democratic.

[lfromnj]

NY-03

https://www.scribd.com/document/474218355/Tom-Suozzi-Toplines-2020-pdf

Douma Research/Tom Suozzi internal (D)
August 1-2, 2020
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Suozzi 50%
George Santos 39%
Undecided 11%

Generic D 46%
Generic R 41%
Undecided 13%

Joe biden up by 8 btw.

[lfromnj]

NY-03

https://www.scribd.com/document/474218355/Tom-Suozzi-Toplines-2020-pdf

Douma Research/Tom Suozzi internal (D)
August 1-2, 2020
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Suozzi 50%
George Santos 39%
Undecided 11%

Generic D 46%
Generic R 41%
Undecided 13%

Joe biden up by 8 btw.
It was Clinton +7 and it is left trending.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-03

https://www.scribd.com/document/474218355/Tom-Suozzi-Toplines-2020-pdf

Douma Research/Tom Suozzi internal (D)
August 1-2, 2020
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Suozzi 50%
George Santos 39%
Undecided 11%

Generic D 46%
Generic R 41%
Undecided 13%

Joe biden up by 8 btw.

I posted presidential numbers in the relevant subforum, but it turns out this is an R internal anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL-13 poll
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_CD13GEN_August30_L5V0S.pdf

St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
August 29-30, 2020
2160 likely voters
MoE: 2.1%

Crist 55%
Luna 39%
Undecided 7%

[Gracile]

FL-13 poll
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_CD13GEN_August30_L5V0S.pdf

St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
August 29-30, 2020
2160 likely voters
MoE: 2.1%

Crist 55%
Luna 39%
Undecided 7%

I would not be surprised if Crist massively outperformed Biden/the lean of this district.

[wbrocks67]

USC/dornsife has GCB at D+10

https://election.usc.edu/

[Brittain33]

MA-04 D primary poll!

https://jewishinsider.com/2020/08/auchincloss-and-mermell-are-neck-and-neck-in-new-massachusetts-4th-poll/
RABA Research/Jewish Insider

Ugh, QAnon will be all over this one.