2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

New PA poll from F&M has GCB at D+7. Lots of undecideds, but I believe it was about +10 in 2018.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

Yep. No seat in PA will flip. Fitzpatrick is likeliest to lose though. I can see Biden dragging a no-name over the finish line.

Just like Wolf and Casey in 2018. Oh wait....

[Roll Roons]

So at this point it looks like IE considers the following 2018 flips to be Solid D:
AZ-02, CA-49, CO-06, FL-27, IL-06, MN-02, MN-03, NJ-11, PA-05, PA-06, VA-10, WA-08.

Sabato has CA-49, CO-06, FL-27, MN-03, NJ-11, PA-05, PA-06 and VA-10.

[Roll Roons]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

If Democrats actually sweep all four of the state's House seats, the "IA is not a Republican-leaning state, it’s just a Trump state that’s Tossup/Lean D again" takes will be insufferable. But boy, 2022 would be a colossal massacre in IA under a Democratic presidency (they’d probably lose all four House seats except maybe Axne's).

In that fun hypothetical scenario, I think Scholten would possibly be a contender for setting a new record for a losing incumbent. Joseph Cao lost by 32% I believe, so that would be the mark to beat

Honestly, he might as well run for governor or Senate at that point. Probably a better bet than getting blanched.

[Roll Roons]

If TX-07 and CA-48 are on the list then NJ-07 should be as well.

[Roll Roons]

CA-50 poll, a DEM internal, shows Darrell Issa up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244076183853162496?s=20

LOL

Safe R

Yeah, this was only close in 2018 because of Hunter. Ditto NY-27 and IA-04 if King loses the primary.

[Roll Roons]

IE came out with new Senate ratings today, all in favor of Democrats:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2020-senate-ratings-april-3-2020

Colorado is Tilt D from pure Tossup
Maine is pure Tossup from Tilt R
New Hampshire is Solid D from Likely

[Roll Roons]

Tilt D is a bit generous to Gardner, though it's nice that the pundits seem much more willing to say that incumbents are underdogs when facing tenuous reelection chances (far better than they were the last cycle, at least).

Forecasters always seem to be cautious, especially when there's an incumbent and we're months away from the general election.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Damn, nothing in Chicagoland, though they probably expect Oberweis to self-fund. Is it safe to assume that the Philly spending covers NJ-03, PA-01 and PA-07?

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/in-strong-fundraising-quarter-kean-raises-508k-and-banks-more-than-1-1-million/

In NJ-07, Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr raises $508k in Q4.

[Roll Roons]

I think the PA-01 change may be a bit much. This is a presidential year, so even if the nominee is weak, it's still possible they're taken over the finish line by Biden.

Fitzpatrick is someone who has proven ability to run ahead of the ticket. In 2018, the district was Casey +15 and Wolf +19, and he still managed to win, even with a weak opponent. He has one of, if not the, most moderate voting records of any House Republican, and his very popular late brother was his immediate predecessor.

[Roll Roons]

Monmouth:

https://www.insidernj.com/monmouth-poll-competitive-house-races-nj-districts-2-3-5-7-11/?fbclid=IwAR0_MG4LnKRLuGTN_f6k8mv3c7yNuD4pt7O29A07NeKXid0zVuSiqwE-DHY

Republicans are winning the aggregate ballot in NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 by 46-45. At this point in 2018, Democrats were leading 49-42. Wonder how much of the swing is from NJ-02 alone.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1273352072407195654

When we say we wanted more women in Congress, this isn't what we meant.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

I think 2022 could be a bloodbath for Democrats in Jersey. They're pretty much maxed out, none of NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 are THAT blue, the fundraising source will likely dry up without Trump in office, and swing district members are almost always the first to go down.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/senate/
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/house/

Politico updated their Senate and House ratings.
Senate ratings are all in favor of Democrats. Arizona moves from Tossup to Lean D, Iowa and Montana from Lean R to Tossup, and Oregon from Likely D to Solid (let's be honest, that seat was Safe D even before the QAnon truther got nominated).

House:
Mostly boosting Democrats.
AZ-09 (Stanton) from Likely to Solid.
AZ-02 (Kirkpatrick), CA-10 (Harder), CA-45 (Porter) and NH-02 (Kuster) go from Lean D to Likely.
NV-03 (Lee) from Tossup to Lean D.
VA-05 from Likely to Lean R in the wake of Riggleman's defeat at the convention.

But they changed three ratings in favor of Republicans.
IA-04, with Steve King's primary loss, goes from Lean R to Safe.
MN-08 (Stauber) moves from Lean R to Likely, and the open NC-11 from Likely to Safe.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684

Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.

I'm torn between this one and TX-22. It was basically the same dynamic but with switched parties - Dem nominee clinched it in the first round, and two Republicans had to fight in a messy runoff. But on the other hand, Beto won TX-24 and Cruz narrowly carried TX-22.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1286076484638183431

Cook is updating Senate ratings tomorrow, and apparently all changes are in favor of Democrats.

My guess:
-AZ and CO move from Tossup to Lean D
-Iowa and possibly GA regular from Lean R to Tossup
-Maybe TX from Likely R to Lean

[Roll Roons]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1290301880900476928

Why did obama endorse Adrienne bell in tx 14th it's a trump +20 district in Galveston and Beuamount so I dont even think it's really trending left. Was she a staffer ?

Not sure. The thing is, I'm not sure how much weight Obama's endorsement will actually have in a lot of these races, especially since he endorsed dozens of candidates at once. For instance, in 2008, he did a radio ad for Dan Seals in IL-10, which is a district where Obama won with 61% of the vote. And Seals still lost by 6 points to Mark Kirk!

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1290301880900476928

Why did obama endorse Adrienne bell in tx 14th it's a trump +20 district in Galveston and Beuamount so I dont even think it's really trending left. Was she a staffer ?

Not sure. The thing is, I'm not sure how much weight Obama's endorsement will actually have in a lot of these races, especially since he endorsed dozens of candidates at once. For instance, in 2008, he did a radio ad for Dan Seals in IL-10, which is a district where Obama won with 61% of the vote. And Seals still lost by 6 points to Mark Kirk!

Well the endorsement merely gets fundraising pointed and I can't believe you mixed up Kirk and Dold !

Fair enough. And I am one of the last people in the world who will get those two mixed up lmao, given my strong admiration for both. Kirk was in fact running for re-election in 2008. Seals tried for a third time in 2010 and lost to Dold when the seat opened up.

[Roll Roons]

My guess is MO-02.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1290799946267070467

Could also be IN-05. Anyway, I think the national GOP is going to just cut Trump loose and try to limit the downballot damage as much as possible.

[Roll Roons]

Monmouth polled IA's CDs:



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_080620/

I am very surprised about the first and second districts. I figured IA-01 would be very close and IA-02 would be a more comfortable Dem lead. Though I expected Feenstra to lead big.

[Roll Roons]

Wasserman changed a few House ratings:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291718992378449925

[Roll Roons]

Inside Elections has come up with a list of GOP-held seats they list as Safe R, but are potentially worth watching in a huge wave. Trump won all of these districts in 2016 with 52-58 percent. 
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/house-races-to-watch

CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-08 (Open, Cook)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-50 (Open, Hunter)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-16 (Kinzinger)
KS-02 (Open, Watkins)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-02 (Huizenga)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-08 (Stauber)
NE-01 (Fortenberry)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-09 (Bishop)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Gonzalez)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-17 (Open, Flores)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-01 (Steil)
WI-06 (Grothman)

I have my doubts about most of these seats, but could any realistically be in play? I feel like a lot of the incumbents are pretty strong and have a good change of significantly outperforming Trump.

[Roll Roons]

Why is MN-08 now Safe R? I don’t know a ton about that tace but I was really sad it flipped two years ago.

It's a pretty Trumpy area and Stauber is a strong incumbent.