2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

1. Josh Gottheimer’s COH is unbelievable.
2. Some of those lazy NC GOP reps are in for a world of hurt if the SC replaces the gerrymander with a fair map.
3. Steve King is the only man who insists on the title “Mr.” in his FEC filings.

[Brittain33]

The Kavanaugh discussion is off-topic for this thread.

[Brittain33]

Inside Elections released their initial ratings of NC's new congressional districts:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-december-6-2019

NC-02: Likely D
NC-06: Likely D
NC-08: Likely R
NC-09: Lean R

Every other seat is either Solid D or Solid R for the party that holds them.

Was this the one who said they put NC-2 and NC-6 as Likely rather than Safe only to keep them on the chart as visible pickups?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

Also my opinion, now OH 13th had, I think, the biggest R swing of any congressional district in 2018

Similar to WV-3 having possibly the largest D swing of any congressional district in 2018.

[Brittain33]

The Democrats' generic ballot lead has increased since last week. So much for impeachment destroying us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

The tremendous irony of an RCP poll driving up the Democratic advantage of a different poll aggregator.

[Brittain33]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

[Brittain33]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

These datas are actually pretty good for the GOP, Trump is leading by 10, his approval rate is at +11 and a republican challenger is already leading by 5 in the House race.

If Trump is leading by 10 in a district he won by 13, depending on who the undecideds are that’s probably *not* good news for him (even if Horn may lose to an R). He can’t afford to give back any votes at all in 2020.

[Brittain33]

Atlas: Biden can flip a Trump +10 district blue if he runs, because of muh Pennsylvania roots and muh blue collar identity

Also Atlas: You're CRAZY if you think a Clinton +1, Romney +21 district could flip R if a literal Socialist is nominated

Atlas: an incumbent winning reelection while the opposing Presidential candidate wins it is "flipping" a district

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/PolarBarrett/status/1214577843616833538?s=20

The republican Amy McGrath.

A few major differences:
1. John James has run a virtually flawless campaign while McGrath has had a serious of fatal missteps.
2. James faces no primary challenge, while McGrath faces a few.
3. Michigan is no Kentucky.
4. McConnell has a far better campaign apparatus than Peters.
5. Trump is going to do far better in Michigan than the Democratic nominee in Kentucky.

All of this is true, but the other side of the scale is a potential D+8 environment which wipes away any significance.

[Brittain33]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

Yeah, but there's little indication of that happening.

Yes, it’s not as if two suburban Detroit districts flipped to Democrats after the 2016 election or anything.

[Brittain33]

$263,000 is a pretty sad total for Fischbach given that she had the whole quarter to fundraise and Peterson is the most endangered Democrat in the country. Is the big Republican money waiting on the sidelines for a man to throw his hat into the ring?

[Brittain33]

MN-7 numbers are interesting to say the least

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1221839224539877377?s=20

Representative Fischbach. People should get used to saying it.

And yet she's doing terribly in fundraising, too.

[Brittain33]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Low name recognition for the challenger is one factor.

Let’s flip this around: what’s the evidence for House race results aligning perfectly with Presidential race results? We’ve seen it in the Senate once, but not yet in the House where it’s still not impossible to have an identity independent from the top of the ticket.

[Brittain33]

Anyway, the fact that Finkenauer only won by 4-5 points when she was expected to run away with the race last time is a vote for his poll being roughly believable.

[Brittain33]

Collins has dropped out

Do not tease us like this

[Brittain33]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

[Brittain33]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

Only in a Democratic landslide, I think.

[Brittain33]

Why does CA-53 get more polls than CA-25?

Probably because it’s been open, or anticipated to be open, for a much longer time that the candidates have plenty of money to spend on polling. Either they raised it or they are wealthy like Issa.

Could CA-53 be a close race?

Only in a Democratic landslide, I think.

It’s D vs. D, so could the race be close?

Oh ignore me. I saw the poll about CA-50 and thought it was that race.

[Brittain33]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

Agreed with all of these except Georgia. That race will go whichever way the Presidential race in Georgia goes, and by all accounts Georgia is no better than Lean R for Trump

There’s the runoff for Senate, though.

[Brittain33]

It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Not to worry, these are just reservations. There are still opportunities for them to cancel and divert $8-9 million to VA-10 in fall.

[Brittain33]

Wow

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1250406250849992704

(Googles Mark Warner's age to see if he's going to retire)

[Brittain33]

$3 million against Fletcher also seems ridiculous

fwiw, it's Super PAC money (so higher rates) in an expensive media market.

The fact that Rs think they can win that district tho....

Could this be redirected for TX-22 if they decide they need to?

[Brittain33]

Dems are buying ads in Savannah but not Indianapolis?  WTF?

Why would you be surprised by prioritizing SC-1 over IN-5?

[Brittain33]

Imagine AOC becoming a one term representative?

What is this in response to?

[Brittain33]

2020 GCB continues to look identical to 2018.

The NBC News poll takes the Dems to 49.0% at 538 for the first time. For comparison, that didn't happen in 2018 until late September, but undecideds were higher then so I'm not disagreeing with your general point.